Top Ten World Powers

[Ecthy]

he must be mixing that one up with Atapers.

[Impaler[WrG]]

Opps I must have left out the "and Turkey" part their (must not posts when half asleep), I know Ataturk was turkish, most of what I said about Iran aplies to Turkey as well. Iran will move to a position much like Turkey is now (pro-western, socialy liberal). Most people would realy be suprised at the disparity betweens Irans current goverment and the opinions of a good 3/4 of its population.

[Ecthy]

What does Atafrench say about all this?

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


outside support didnt matter in terms of resupply. It presumably did impact the level of armament, state of preparedness of the NVA. And does incompetent performace by the PLA in 1979 necessarily indicate similar performance today? US armed forces had some real problems in 1979-1980, ISTR

I don´t question the potential of China, and of course they made impressive progress in various fields during the last years/decades.

The thing about the bad performance of the Chinese in 79 and their handling of SARS is that - despite all the progress - they still have lots of internal problems too. The good old bureaucratic system from coldwar times seems to have still some impact when it comes to a situation where quick decisions are needed.

It indicates not lesser power per se, but I think such problems can really have an impact when the (esp. military) power actually needs to be used. I mean big numbers and lots of new weapons are nice - but without effective command, control and communication, logistics etc. etc. it is useless. Think gulf war one - many feared Saddam´s big army, but in the end it was no problem for the coalition.

Of course it would be foolish to compare China and Iraq, but overall the Chinese conventional military isn´t that impressive so far - mostly Russian-built weapons. The latest own designs, like those J10 or 12 fighters face(d) heavy problems during the development, and will probably be outdated compared to western models when they enter service (which isn´t that sure at all).

Most of Europe is dead- I did not only mean UK, but France too. Their relative power can only decline. When Asia truly rises, in 50-100 years, most countries in Europe will be insignificant, minor powers.

They predict the fall of the occident since the Arabs ruled Spain and we are still waiting.... You seem to think politics is a static business, where developments can´t be influenced or changed. Thats a bit simplistic. Europe has quite good chances, esp. in economic aspects, but also in political aspects, if the nations get something done together. You may argue that this is exactly the problem, but OTOH despite all the problems (which aren´t too surprising given the fact that a lot of different states do hardly agree on everything) there is progress in the Eu enough. If Europe is dead then tell me why those East European nations still like to join the Eu (or already joined), or why Turkey wants to be in. Also, outside threats (if China ever becomes one - who knows if they really want to play a more agressive role?) have the nice side-effect that states often put their differences aside....

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


The UK's ability to discuss with Germany or Russia, for now at least, is limited, because of their 'duty' towards America.
Say what you wish, but I don't believe my reasoning to be idiotic.

Not only is the UK quite able to negotiate with Russia and Germany, but the US is quite capable of negotiating with Russia and Germany directly.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by BeBro

They predict the fall of the occident since the Arabs ruled Spain and we are still waiting.... You seem to think politics is a static business, where developments can´t be influenced or changed. Thats a bit simplistic. Europe has quite good chances, esp. in economic aspects, but also in political aspects, if the nations get something done together. You may argue that this is exactly the problem, but OTOH despite all the problems (which aren´t too surprising given the fact that a lot of different states do hardly agree on everything) there is progress in the Eu enough. If Europe is dead then tell me why those East European nations still like to join the Eu (or already joined), or why Turkey wants to be in. Also, outside threats (if China ever becomes one - who knows if they really want to play a more agressive role?) have the nice side-effect that states often put their differences aside....

If i was PM of say, Lithuania, of course id want to joing the EU - it has the highest wage levels outside of North America, and so is the most lucractive and most complementary market for my nations goods and services - and unlike North America, its nearby, so Im not competing directly with say, Mexico. But the same high wages that make the EU appealing limit the growth of the core powers - can Germany ever have double the GDP per capita of the US? The Ricardian dynamic of world trade tends to equalize wage levels, except where new technologies break the equilibrium, and hards to see France or Germany taking advantage of such breakthroughs vis a vis the US, or even Japan. Europe wont be dead - it may be one of the best places to LIVE as far as into the future as anyone can see - but even the most powerful individual states are likely to continue their relative declines, as fast as the US or even faster (due to better demographics in the US) The best hope for european power lies in 1. Unification into a single power 2. Succesful incorporation of the new members 3. Economic revival in the core countries 4. dealing with the demographic issues, the aging of the population and the need to integrate immigrants.
These are all problematic, and some conflict with each other (for example further integrations versus expansion) Even if all are achieved succesfully, that may at best move the EU ahead of the US, at a time when both enter long term declines relative to China and India.

[Cruddy]

Re: Top Ten World Powers

Originally posted by monkspider
Based on economic strength, military strength, international influence, etc etc.

In order:

1. United States
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. United Kingdom
6. India
7. Russia
8. France
9. Korea
10. Israel

Any objections?

Without getting too detailed, I this this is way too simple. Much better to list for each catergory - and have a seperate one for mineral resources. So, military power we get something very simple... it's a listing of "who owns the most nukes", and some countries are about even...

1. US.
1. Russia.
3. China.
4. UK
4. France.
6. Israel
7 Pakistan
7 India
9 N Korea
10 South Africa (did they disarm? I can't remember".

Reason for listing them like this? Because if a country has got nukes, there's no future in attacking it if you haven't got nukes... so only equal or better than powers can afford to fight a conventional war.

Economics pretty simple, because it really isn't my subject, so go and check out the top 10s rated by bean counters.

International Influence is a tricky one. You see, it's a bit like the Reputation rating in Civ - some countries detest one another, others are widely unpopular with many neighbours.

So I'd say...

1. UK (advantage of having Commonwealth as unofficial world forum).
2. US (2nd because some countries just won't deal with the No.1)
3... (waits for screams of outrage)

[lord of the mark]

2100 top powers
1. North America (a bilingual Spanish-English power, extending from the north pole to the Panama Canal - Feliz Ano Nuevo, everyone)
2. China (finally capitalist, finally including Taiwan)
3. The EU
4. India
5. Japan (finally over the recession)
6. Russia (finally recovered from the fall of FSU)
7. Indonesia (having avoided incorpation into any caliphate)
8. Brazil - (still the country of future)

[MrBaggins]

In terms of nuclear first strike capability (I.E. ballistic/tube launched cruise missile sub quality)

1. US
2. Russia (although their quality and especially quantity is deteriorating)
3. UK
5. France
4. China

[Cruddy]

Sorry to rain on your parade Mr Baggins, but at most 2 and usually only 1 Brit boomer is on station at any one time. I have no idea how often the French rotate their ballistic subs but I doubt the UK should be so high on your list.

The reason I put China higher than either is because Chinese ballistic sub data is rare as rocking horse droppings. They've been one or 2 possible sightings and that is it...

Not a good idea just to count warheads (which does put the UK ahead, but most warheads are not deployed - costs a bomb )

[MrBaggins]

China only has one (half decent) SSBN... the Xia. They are developing a new class... but thats not scheduled for a while.

As for the rankings... they are potential rankings... not current operational. If the UK (or any nation) wanted to deploy all of its boomers, then there isn't any reason why it couldn't... abeit cost.

[lord of the mark]

Ok lets review

China suffers from corruption - but no surprise, with so many cities, and such large ones. They need to go to a more advanced govt form, probably demo - but first they need to get industry and luxuries up.

UK, Germany and France - nice small, perfectionists civs - but need bigger pops. Why cant they run "Ilovethepremierdays"?

US - great tech, big military, shows how to play a strong late game demo. But watch the reputation guys

Russia - rushed that transition to demo, no? Military units disappearing, anarchy - looks like switch to despotism to get out of anarchy - maybe build some improvements, why dont you guys?

Japan - lots of industry,traditionally builty lots of caravans - but not the latest finance improvements - when you get to this stage guys, youve got to have the latest financial improvements to completly leverage the caravans, or you'll be left behind. Cant follow your low military, perfectionist high trad strat without that.

[Ecthy]

lotm, we've had WLTXDs before, but we have no food surplus

[muxec]

1. Population of Japan is almost equal to population of Russia and official GNP is about five times of Russian. But wealth of Japanese people is 30 times of Russian. Conclusion: The Russian figures are fake.

Japan has nor nukes nor army. So it has no expenses on it. Nobody will attack Japan just because attacking Japan is equal to attacking USA.

Japan's serious weakness is language. Number of non-Japanese people who know Japanese language is low. Also a lot of citizen of Japan do not know any language except Japanese.

2. Yes, Israel consumes American economy. But Israeli military helps USA a lot. Israel destroyed Iraqi nuke at 1980 saving billions to America. Also Israel helps USA with espionage. And with science. And with fight against terrorism.

3. Muslims only look disunited. Note: Turkey is not really muslim country.

[Ned]

How can anyone call China a world power when it could not even take Taiwan?

A world power must be able to project it, to conduct a foreign war against a major power and win.

The USA, UK, France, and Israel are perhaps the only world powers using this definition. Germany is close.

Of course, give time and a lot of money, countries like China and Japan could become world powers. But they are not there now.