For example, if Alexander the Great, or Jesus Christ, or Confucius were never born, history would have gone far off the path it went down in real life. There's no way that geography can explain the effects of Genghis Khan. Occasionally, a single guy can change the world.
Alexander's empire didn't last. He made a big impression but didn't change anything. His conquest didn't change much in comparison with a situation where the Persian empire would have fragmented all of itself, which was very likely in certain regions like Egypt or Greece (where several cities, recognized, on paper, the authority of the Persian king).
As for the Christ, one could say there were many prophets, and another one or another religion could have spawned or imposed itself. There had to be a state religion in the Roman Empire, it switched from Roman paganism to a monotheism, but I don't think it changed that much.
Gengis Khan: What long terms effect did this guy's conquests have? The invasions of mongols in China caused trouble but mongols were assimilated more than anything else, so it didn't trouble China that much. What are the long terms difference between Gengis Khan and an epidemics of plague?
Back to Europe vs. Middle East or North Africa:
The Middle East and Africa were home to very ancient agriculture, which, by being too intensive, led to deforestation (Lebannon) and desertification, thus removing any chance for these countries to remain major players. Again, concerning northern Africa, they didn't benefit from the diversity of cultures Europe had, and this can be in part explained by the lack of barriers in Northern Africa. Britain/France/Spain rivalries, the blooming renaissance in Italy, would not have happened without the English Channel, Pyreneans, Alps, which prevented conquest by a single empire. Switzerland too is explained by geography, and at the time it was born, provided a revolution in military tactics (use of long pikes). Agreed, Switzerland might not exist without a single man (Arnold von Wilkenried) but then wouldn't another swiss have revolted later and won a battle to defeat Austria?
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