Originally posted by Agathon
No, he wanted the US to invade Afghanistan in just the way the Soviets did.
What he didn't bargain for is that the US played it really smart and hired the Northern Alliance to do most of the fighting. This meant less US casualties (which would have been fatal to a US war effort if the war had gone on long enough).
He doesn't have a lot of resources in Iraq, but he doesn't really need them and he doesn't need to do a hell of a lot. A guerilla campaign is really cheap to run, read Che Guevara's book on how to conduct one.
If the occupation continues and the Shias get shut out of the political process things will get more violent. And the more US soldiers die for what appears to be an ungrateful bunch of Arabs, the harder it will be politically for Bush to keep them there.
But that's not the big Kahuna. OBL really wants one thing. To install an Islamist regime in Saudi Arabia - if that happens he wins. The obstacle to this is the Saudi Royal Family. Demographics are on his side, there are many disaffected youth in SA (as 911 showed) and all they really need is to wake up to the possibility of overthrowing the government. A moderately successful guerilla campaign in Iraq is a "threat of a good example".
That's what he wants, whether he will get it is another thing. It is not out of the question though and that is the reason I opposed the invasion of Iraq. Mass unrest in the Persian Gulf would be an economic disaster.
Only one person has anything to gain from risking chaos in the area and that's OBL.
No, he wanted the US to invade Afghanistan in just the way the Soviets did.
What he didn't bargain for is that the US played it really smart and hired the Northern Alliance to do most of the fighting. This meant less US casualties (which would have been fatal to a US war effort if the war had gone on long enough).
He doesn't have a lot of resources in Iraq, but he doesn't really need them and he doesn't need to do a hell of a lot. A guerilla campaign is really cheap to run, read Che Guevara's book on how to conduct one.
If the occupation continues and the Shias get shut out of the political process things will get more violent. And the more US soldiers die for what appears to be an ungrateful bunch of Arabs, the harder it will be politically for Bush to keep them there.
But that's not the big Kahuna. OBL really wants one thing. To install an Islamist regime in Saudi Arabia - if that happens he wins. The obstacle to this is the Saudi Royal Family. Demographics are on his side, there are many disaffected youth in SA (as 911 showed) and all they really need is to wake up to the possibility of overthrowing the government. A moderately successful guerilla campaign in Iraq is a "threat of a good example".
That's what he wants, whether he will get it is another thing. It is not out of the question though and that is the reason I opposed the invasion of Iraq. Mass unrest in the Persian Gulf would be an economic disaster.
Only one person has anything to gain from risking chaos in the area and that's OBL.
And yes I agree his ultimate goal may be to overthrow the Saudi royal family. The war in Iraq may actually aid in that. Without Saddam to threaten the region, there is no solidarity within Suadi Arabia against a potential threat. But we'll see how that plays out. But the Saudi royal family will not last forever. The question is who will take control.
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