Bye bye IDS?

[CerberusIV]

Tadcaster. Being a lying incompetent fool hasn't stopped Grogan winning the seat for the last two elections, why should the next one be different?

[*End Is Forever*]

Grogan's majority is made up almost entirely of University of York students. They won't vote for him this time. That's his majority gone before we've even considered the positive effect of a more coherent Tory campaign nationally or strong showings locally (in May, Selby District Council switched it's allegiance from Labour to Tory in a landslide).

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Originally posted by *End Is Forever*
Selby will return comfortably to the Conservatives at the next election. We have selected a first-class candidate in Mark Menzies, and John Grogan has been exposed as a lying incompetent fool since his initial election.

Are you going to post any links about his lies or incompetence? There's none that I can see in the article you linked to.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

Mr Lindley said: "Grogan refuses to back down over his support for tuition fees, which makes his opposition to top-up fees simply look unprincipled and shallow".

Mr Grogan responded to the comments, saying the Conservative policy on fees supported by York Student Conservatives would curtail the number of students able to go to university. He said: "I supported tuition fees because I think it's reasonable to expect students to make some contribution to higher education." Mr Grogan said he did not support top-up fees because he thought students would be influenced on what degree courses they chose.

Sounds like a coherent argument from Mr Grogan to me. To be honest, I don't get your point at all.

[*End Is Forever*]

He came to the University in 1997 and gave a solemn promise that he would never, ever vote for tuition fees. He then voted for tuition fees.

He's now coming to the University promising not to vote for top-up fees (he'd have ignored the point about tuition fees themselves completely had I not raised it with him). Forgive me for not believing him a second time...

By 2005 there will be approximately 5000 students registered to vote in the Selby constituency. Grogan's majority is 2138.

[Bugs ****ing Bunny]

So, assuming that they get a typical 50% turnout, how confident are you that they'll all vote Tory?

[*End Is Forever*]

I'm not confident they'll all vote Tory, though all the signs point to a stronger showing amongst students; we're comfortably the biggest presence on campus in terms of membership and activity - the Liberal Democrats are organised but small and Labour Club has floundered to the point where the only way it can attract any members at all is to give out literature directly contradicting Labour Party policy!

However, the majority of those students that turned out last time voted for Grogan, and they will not do so again. Even if they do not vote Conservative, that's a sizeable chunk of Grogan's majority gone already, before you even consider others factors here already (such as the reluctance of Labour's core voters - and even in Selby some exist! - to come out and support) and any possibly revival in Tory fortunes (surely even the most hardened anti-blue will predict that seats like Selby will fall back into line in 2005).

[MOBIUS]

Hey Tory Boy!

Apparently since you guys stabbed IDS in the back, the Labour lead in the polls has doubled.

Also it appears that voters trust Howard even less than IDS (though obviously more than Blair!) - I guess voters remember just what a hypocritical two-face ***** Dracula was when he was Home Secretary!

You guys are sooooooo Screwed - and Dracula isn't even leader yet!

[FrustratedPoet]

True, the Labour lead has doudbled, but it's only gone from +3% to +6% - no reason why Tories won't claim that Howard will turn that around.

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by FrustratedPoet
True, the Labour lead has doudbled, but it's only gone from +3% to +6% - no reason why Tories won't claim that Howard will turn that around.

They may claim it, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen...

Also it has to be noted that although Labour's lead doubled it was as a shrinkage of the Tory voter (to the LibDems I might add!) and not an increase in Labour's share...

Where is Tory Boy anyway?

He seems to have run off without answering anyone's questions in a satisfactory manner - perhaps he realises that he's onto a losing wicket...

[spartak]

coward.




Maybe he has been studying.

[FrustratedPoet]

Why should he have to study when he can just bum and sleaze his way to the top like all the other tories?

[Snotty]

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3247893.stm

And it subsequently emerged the Board of the Conservative Party was not planning to have a vote of the entire membership to ratify Mr Howard's appointment.

Instead there will be an "informal consultation" of members over the weekend.

No vote, no choice? No democracy. So much for the new system of the membership voting for the leader.

My approach is a simple one: Promise less, deliver more.

I thought that was a pretty good line. The reality is that hes not going to get to deliver anything. Howard is what, 63? +2 to the next election which he has no chance of winning. +5 to the next election means a 70 year old man at the helm. If hes not bumped off well before then I would be very much suprised.

"To them I say this: when the public services have been reformed, the money will certainly go further.

"And yes, we would like to cut taxes. I hope we can."

After a headline grabbing promise of tax cuts, heres the reality. But any future control of the economy is so far down the line they could promise anything.

Theres a fence near the labour club in my old home town. It still has 'Poll tax. Cant pay, wont pay' graffitied on it. Everyone I have mentioned it to has gone cold on Howard. People can sometimes have really long memorys.

[Solly]

1) Promise lower taxes - but instead of wishy-washy Labourite arguments about not raising income taxes, promise to bring the tax take below 35% of GDP, reversing its Labour-intended upward march to 40%. No smokescreens. Cut out council tax and replace it with a higher basic-rate income tax and higher rate if necessary, to remove local authority bureaucracy. Claim the buzzword of "prudence" from the increasingly spend-happy Brown.

2) Offer a referendum on the proposed European constitution and demand Labour do the same to give the people a say. Re-instate the primacy of British law over European in all areas except trade. Offer a referendum on the Euro one year into power and say that whatever the British people decide, "this government will stick with it", ie not offer more referenda. Publish the question that will be posed in the referendum.

[Drogue]

Park Avenue has the key to Tory grassroots success, and election gains. However whether it will be enough would be another matter. It makes sense to the general public, and gets Tory policies back to the mainstream.

However, IMHO, they would both the bad ideas. But then, I'm not a typical voter (I don't read the Sun).