What Has The Amercian-led War On Terror Achieved?

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Osweld


He hasn't?

But for it to be considered a troll, doesn't the troller have to be saying something that would piss the trollees off?

[lord of the mark]

Re: Re: What Has The Amercian-led War On Terror Achieved?

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
al Quada gaining lots of new recruits.

The $64,000 dollar question. Whats happened to al qaeeda (and affiliates) recruiting since 9/11? Since the liberation of Aghanistan? Since the invasion of Iraq? How does total recruitment compare to the numbers killed or detained?

The recently leaked Rumsfeld memo indicates that even DoD doesnt know the answers. I doubt that anyone else knows them (Given the state of disruption of Al Qaeeda, and their decentralization in response, I doubt even the Al Qaeeda leadership knows the answers)

And the question of what recruitment is versus what it would have been if any particular US action had not been taken is even more difficult.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


Gosh. You think?
And why do you single me out??
What's your problem with Drake?
So, because terrorism isn't wiped out universally, we shouldn't be grateful for the lull Park Avenue brings up?

Sorry. I think I'll continue to celebrate.

Aren't you suppose to be working at the new job of yours?

I'm not saying that you can't celebrate any achievements we make in this war against terrorism -- go ahead.

But at the same time, we can't ignore what happens in non-Western countries just because they do not have oil there or because they do not have nukes.

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by Caligastia


But for it to be considered a troll, doesn't the troller have to be saying something that would piss the trollees off?

The best trolls are ones that the target can't reconize, and can even take as compliment. I'm not going to pretend that I know what's going through bodd's mind (thank god), but his post was just oozing with sarscasm to me.

[lord of the mark]

Potential WOT metrics

1. Number, magnitude and location of terrorist acts.
The fewer the better. The smaller the better. and yes, the more they are concentrated in the muslim world, or states adjacent to it the better (not that theyre less tragic, but that it indicates an inability of AQ to act beyond the muslim world)
2. Capture/killing of AQ leaders, followers, etc. Caveat that this needs to be compared to recruitment, etc
3. Disruption of AQ planning, financing, training, etc.
4. Progress on reconstruction in Afghanistan/Iraq
5. Number of states taken over by radical Islamists (EG if Pakistan is taken over)
6. Islamic world public opinion
7. Democratization in the Islamic world, especially in the Arab world.

Simply glancing at this list should indicate how difficult it is to measure progress - some of the items above are VERY hard to measure, and progress is very disputed.

Which is why I tend to think an overall assesment as requested by this thread is almost impossible. Better to try to assemble info on specific issues.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by MrFun


Aren't you suppose to be working at the new job of yours?

They froze the job the same day I told you I was going to work.
****ing *******s.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


Gosh. You think?
And why do you single me out??
What's your problem with Drake?
So, because terrorism isn't wiped out universally, we shouldn't be grateful for the lull Park Avenue brings up?

Sorry. I think I'll continue to celebrate.

The problem with the lull is we dont know what theyre planning.

Some have pointed out that AQ tends to wait a year or two between major operations, so one year, or even two year lull doesnt tell you anything. In response its pointed out that post 9/11 is different from pre 9/11 - pre, they could afford to wait - post they were under global attack, not only in afghan but by LE around the world - they needed to follow up 9/11 with dramatic attacks while they still had capacity - and what have they achieved - ZERO attacks in the west, a big attack in Bali and Riyadh, smaller attacks in Jakarta, Tunisia, Pakistan, Kenya. Not enough to shake ANY muslim state, let alone to compensate for the effects of the WOT. In response to that it is claimed they ARE NOT losing capacity, they are recruiting to offset their losses, etc. And it does seem that right now they are focusing their efforts not on the West directly, but on Iraq in a campaign using the Zarqawi group, al Ansar, and newly formed Jihadi groups in the Sunni Triangle and coordinated by Said el Adel, operating either in Iran or in Iraq itself. If we keep up the lull, and lose Iraq to AQ, we're in a bad way.

Now im not pessimistic about this, but I would suggest its too early too celebrate.

[SlowwHand]

Every single day that goes by, I'll celebrate as a tiny victory.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Osweld


The best trolls are ones that the target can't reconize, and can even take as compliment. I'm not going to pretend that I know what's going through bodd's mind (thank god), but his post was just oozing with sarscasm to me.

I don't know...he's been consistently pro-american for a pretty long time now...

[chequita guevara]

What happened to evil international masterminds calling up the President beforehand, gloating, and demanding one million, er, one hundred billion dollars.
Muah hah hahahahahahah!

[MrFun]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


They froze the job the same day I told you I was going to work.
****ing *******s.

damn -- that would be very frustrating

I hope that somehow, you find a way to get back on your feet soon.

[Dinner]

Re: What Has The Amercian-led War On Terror Achieved?

Originally posted by Park Avenue
Well there's certainly been no major terrorist attack in the West since September 11th 2001.

Congratulations. That is a great achievement.

*Cough* Bali *Cough*

[oedo]

well, there´s certainly no major terrorist attack in the west since the last terrorist attack. and most likely there will be no major terrorist attack in the west before the next major terrorist attack.

what a great achievement.

[Spiffor]

The real result:
- Al Qaeda has been weakened, and it is likely it will not be able to push forwards plans to do a Sept. 11 like attack. Mass terrorism is likely to be thwarted for a while.
- Most of the world takes the problem seriously now, and it is difficult for a terrorist organization to operate from a non-remote country.

The non-result:
Terrorism on a less massive scale still exists, and is even probably emboldened. Since the war in Iraq, many terrorist attacks have happened in the whole Muslim world. All were on par with the Pre-2001 Al Qaeda's attacks on US embassies. Besides, the Russians have their own problems with Chechen terrorists as well.

The counter-result:
The Arabs haven't seen your adventure positively. The whole Iraqi charade has displeased them very much, and I expect many more well-off Arabs give money to Islamic 'charities', or directly enlist in terrorist organizations. Your attempt to link the Iraq war with the war on terror makes the US much less credible than before, and makes the whole war on terror look like a tool servicing your power politics. International cooperation in the war on terror is likely to be much less enthusiastic.

[Caligastia]

I don't really consider Bali to be part of "the West".