WWII Hypothetical: The Mediterranean Strategy

[Alexander's Horse]

We all know Germany got into a very good position to win world war II by defeating France in 1940 but then screwed it up by not defeating Britain, thus allowing the later entry of the US into the war, and invading the Soviet Union whilst still at war with Britain. War on 2 fronts.

It is often debated what strategy Germany should have employed to win the war after they lost the Battle of Britain. The main competing strategy in 1940 to the attack on Russia was what was termed the "Mediterranian strategy". This was proposed by Admiral Raeder and the German navy.

The German navy argued that the best way to defeat Britain was to fight an essentially naval and air war against the British mainland whilst seeking to defeat the British army in the Mediterranian/Middle east region and thereby force Britan to the negotiating table by humiliating it and threatening its colonial empire i.e. particularly Egypt and India.

The German navy argued that the Mediterranian strategy had the advantage of combining the military resources of both Germany and Italy. The Italian navy was formidable at least on paper and the remnants of the French fleet were in the Mediterranian. Combined, the German/Italian and possibly French fleet could provide a real threat to the British navy in the Atlantic once the Mediterranian was secured.

Spain would be brought into the Axis to facilitate an attack on Gibraltar thus closing the Western Mediterranian. The Suez canal would be seized and the oil resources of Iraq brought under Axis control. India would be within striking distance after Egypt fell, as would the Caucasus oil fields if Germany decided to attack the Soviet Union at a later date.

Germany easily had the military resources to crush Britain in the Mediterranian in 1940 but Hitler in the end decided that the German army would easily defeat the Soviet Union and attacked Russia instead, expecting an quick victory in 1941. Ho ho ho! Silly Hitler!

Would Germany have won World War II if they had pursued this alternative strategy? Discuss.

[Andrew1999]

I don't see how this would work. First off, Spain wasn't going to join the war. Second, you're matching Britain's strongest point with Germany's weakest if you go for a surface navy vs. surface navy battle royale.

[Bereta_Eder]

Bah. Britain never had a chance, eventually it would have folded. Hitler did the mistake of invading Russia (never do that) and trusting the Italians to invade Greece (proven not a good idea either). I'll actually work on quotes by many generals of different countries about this. It's amazing the things they said about Greece. Churchill's "Greeks don't fight like heroes, heroes fight like Greeks" was just one of many.

There you go Horsie

[Ted Striker]

Actually, I wouldn't take this to the extreme as invading India woudn't work and woudn't have gotten Germany that much.

However, two things make this plan better than the original that was executed against the Soviets:

1) IF Germany had succeeded in grabbing the Suez Canal, the lifeblood of the British Empire would have been cut IN HALF, cutting them off from India, Australia, oil assets, etc. I think taking the Mediterranean would have been doable, although the German Navy was outgunned, they could have made up for it through the Luftwaffe and also the U Boats.

AND THE GUNS OF NAVARONNE!!!!

2) They wouldn't have had to worry about that whole "invading the Soviet Union and getting our asses kicked" thing.

The oil fields of Iraq would have gotten them a nice supply to pretty much do whatever they wanted to at that point.

However Bush employed this strategy recently and the 25 cents per gallon I am currently enjoying is a result of this masterful stroke of genius.

[Ming]

Re: WWII Hypothetical: The Mediterranean Strategy

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
Would Germany have won World War II if they had pursued this alternative strategy? Discuss.

It couldn't have been any worse than what did happen

Any strategy that DIDN'T INCLUDE attacking Russia may have won him the war. If Hitler had just continued making smiles to Russia... taken care of business, consolidated his power... he then might have been able to take out Russia at a much later date...

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by Andrew1999
I don't see how this would work. First off, Spain wasn't going to join the war.

Hitler met Franco once in 1940 and asked him about possibly joining the Axis or allowing German forces to transit Spanish territory in order to facilitate an attack on Gibraltar - the sweetener being Spain later regaining control over Gibraltar. Franco refused but Hitler didn't press the point - he said talking to Franco was as painful as having a tooth removed!

It is difficult to see however how Franco could have maintained his opposition if Hitler and Mussolini had really pressured him given that Spain was a fascist state and the Axis powers had helped Franco win the civil war.

Spain later provided a division of "volunteers" who fought as the "Blue" Division against Russia on the Eastern front.

Second, you're matching Britain's strongest point with Germany's weakest if you go for a surface navy vs. surface navy battle royale.

No, the idea was primarily to use U boat warfare but also surface raiders and gradually wear down the British navy in the Atlantic with a combination of naval and air attacks. Strangle the Atlantic lifeline to Britain or at least demoralise the British public with shortages.

[SKILORD]

Or Would we be wondering why he didn't cruch the Soviets when he obviously had the power to crush them (If it weren't for Adolf 'Playing at General' Hitler they would have won as well)?

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Perhaps they would have won World War Two, in fact, I am almost certain that if they had focused the forces that they spent in Russia on Britain she would have cracked like an egg under a blitz. It was a mistake to try two blitzes a once, they were too slow, untrue to the strategy which had suceeded in France. Had they actually Blitzed England then Winston Churchill would be remembered as a martyr.

Now the Japanese and Germans begin cooperating, planning the landings and attacks on the Pacific ports of the Soviets which will create a two front war for Stalin.

In the Spring of 1943, their forces well amassed, Germany declares war on the Soviet Union, followed rapidly by a surprise attack on Vladvistock, a tragedy which the American President would even condemn. But President Roosevelt would declare his neutrality in the Issue. Despitre this he begins shipping war supplies through Alaska to the Soviets. Our Siberian Pirates, lead by Dolittle, manage to keep the Soviet Union alive for a full year and a half longer than any fair estimate would have left them otherwise. The Soviet Union as a nation is declared disbanded (1945), following the Atomic bombings of Kazan and Tbilisi, the latter is recognised as the final Resting place of Stalin.

Shocked by this new weapon the United States commands it's scientists into a new level of fury, they have the bomb by 1947, and make clear the principle of Mutual Assured Destruction to the Nazis who are already preparing an invasion of the last vestige of Freedom.

America is flooded with Immigrants, unmarked, unnamed vessles are found throughout the American coast, Canada closens ties to America. Another nation to recieve an upsurge in Immigration is, ironically, Mexico.

Following the 'Immigrant Revolution' of 1951 Mexico Establishes a system of nonregulation and of Liberty which has become the most prominent feature of the Americas (The freer Mexican government will last until present day. The Cold War is fought in Africa, where the South Africans are pushed north by the Americans and their 'ATO' (American Treaty Org.) Apartheid is tolerated in the face of Nazi agression and American troops will. in our darkest hour, often come to enforce this upon the Africans.

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In 1994 The Nazi Empire is all but fallen apart. Statism has failed. Across the Atlantic the Americans have likewise left themselves poor contenders, having placed price cpas on many items and having taxed the hell out of it's mighty economy to fight a far harsher and bloodier 'Cold' War. However to the South there is still hope, he Republic of Mexico's thriving Economy makes it a superpower, caring for the wounded troops of past battles, a belaugered United States and a devastated Europe.

[David Floyd]

Then again, any strategy of NOT attacking Russia might have involved a NEAR future Russian attack on Germany, from jump-off positions very close to Germany.

In any case, AH, I see little reason to believe that the Italians could have gained naval superiority in the Mediterranean. They had horrible naval leadership, and their fear of the RN greatly affected their actions and deployments. Further, even if naval superiority/parity could have been attained, it is difficult to see how a huge German/Italian force in Africa could have been supplied, seeing as how most of Italy's and Germany's merchant marines were sunk or interned early in the war.

Getting Spain into the war was a possibility, but it would have required a large Axis victory - probably larger than a hypothetical success of Operation Herkules, but rather something along the lines of a total Axis victory in Africa. Once Spain was sure it would be on the winning side, and only then, would it join the Axis, or even simply allow the Axis to use Spanish territory to seize Gibraltor (which, by the way, would have been no cakewalk).

Combined, the German/Italian and possibly French fleet could provide a real threat to the British navy in the Atlantic once the Mediterranian was secured.

This is completely incorrect. Remember what happened to the French fleet at Toulon - it scuttled itself rather than be captured by the invading Germans in 1942. I just can't see the French fleet joining Italian/German forces en masse for naval battles against the British, in spite of the British sinking the French fleet in North Africa (and yes, I'm well aware of the Jean Bart vs. Mississippi duel).

In any case, there could have been little coordination between these fleets, and certainly no combined leadership. The prissy French (say what you will about the French, but their higher-ups of the time could CERTAINLY be called prissy) would not let an Italian or German command their fleet. The Italians wouldn't subordinate their fleet either, out of pride, and the Germans simply weren't stupid enough to let an Italian or Frenchman command their fleet. There would have been massive language and supply problems, and even assuming the entire German/Italian/French fleets could have combined, the Royal Navy would still have outclassed them. Remember that the Bismarck and Tirpitz weren't even around that early in the war, nor was the Jean Bart or any of the newer Italian cruisers, and that this is PRIOR to the loss of the Hood, Prince of Wales, Repulse, etc.

[David Floyd]

Regarding Spain, by the way, the STRONG possibility also exists that it would have been a net DRAIN on the German war effort, requires huge influxes of raw materials such as oil, and semi-modern weapons, all of which Germany needed.

[David Floyd]

SKILORD,

Perhaps they would have won World War Two, in fact, I am almost certain that if they had focused the forces that they spent in Russia on Britain she would have cracked like an egg under a blitz. It was a mistake to try two blitzes a once, they were too slow, untrue to the strategy which had suceeded in France. Had they actually Blitzed England then Winston Churchill would be remembered as a martyr.

And how would England be blitzed without having German troops in England? Remember that the Germans had their hopes dashed by September 1940, with their absolute failure to gain air superiority. Get a firm foothold on England, and then we'll talk, but remember too that even German air superiority over the Channel and English Channel ports DOES NOT mean the would have had air superiority over the battlefield - British aircraft operating from fields further to the north could not have been intercepted by German fighters flying from France.

Now the Japanese and Germans begin cooperating, planning the landings and attacks on the Pacific ports of the Soviets which will create a two front war for Stalin.

Sounds nice, but this isn't gonna happen. Japan has no reason to go to war against the Soviets - and a couple of GREAT reasons NOT TO. Reason 1: Their major defeat at Nomonhan. Reason 2: Attacking the Soviet Union would not have gotten them any oil or any rubber, which was the whole reason they went to war anyway. And remember, too, that Japan didn't have the resources to go after the DEI, various Pacific Islands, the Philippines, AND the Soviets.

The Soviet Union as a nation is declared disbanded (1945), following the Atomic bombings of Kazan and Tbilisi, the latter is recognised as the final Resting place of Stalin.

Where'd you get this fantasy from? There is no way in hell the Germans would have gotten an atomic bomb by 1945.

In 1994 The Nazi Empire is all but fallen apart. Statism has failed. Across the Atlantic the Americans have likewise left themselves poor contenders, having placed price cpas on many items and having taxed the hell out of it's mighty economy to fight a far harsher and bloodier 'Cold' War. However to the South there is still hope, he Republic of Mexico's thriving Economy makes it a superpower, caring for the wounded troops of past battles, a belaugered United States and a devastated Europe.

[Bosh]

First off, Spain wasn't going to join the war.

Franco offered to join the axis in return for Gibraltar, North African territories and military aid. Like DF said, the wouldn't have been much help militarily or economically (except for the Moroccan colonial troops who tended to be vastly better soldiers than Spaniards), but despite that if the germans had access to Spanish territory they could have closed the straights of Gibraltar to English shipping with great ease.

[Alexander's Horse]

Is it just me or is David Floyd the worst military strategist you have ever met?

[David Floyd]

To quote your location tag, "Oh yeah?"

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Regarding Spain, by the way, the STRONG possibility also exists that it would have been a net DRAIN on the German war effort, requires huge influxes of raw materials such as oil, and semi-modern weapons, all of which Germany needed.

Franco had a battle hardened army which would have been very handy for the Axis. Spain joining the war would have opened the possibility of another peninsula war like in the Napoleonic wars, Churchill actually seriously proposed an invasion of Spain to open a second front in 1943, but this probably would have played out like the Italian campaign - a long drawn out affair diverting allied resources.

[Ted Striker]

HOw does Turkey play into all of this?