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Schroeder Continues Slide Into The Dustheap Of History
Schroeder Heading for Landslide Defeat in Bavaria
Sat September 20, 2003 06:50 PM ET
By James Mackenzie
MUNICH, Germany (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats face their third major defeat this year Sunday in a state election that Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber is forecast to win by a landslide.
Polls predict Stoiber's Christian Social Union (CSU), which has held power in the Alpine state of Bavaria for four decades, will increase its share of the vote to about 60 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) will struggle to top 20 percent.
After heavy defeats in state polls in Hesse and Lower Saxony, another big loss would underline Schroeder's weak standing nationally and step up pressure as he attempts to steer an ambitious package of reforms through parliament this autumn.
It would also represent a measure of revenge for Stoiber a year to the day since Schroeder defeated him by just 6,000 votes in last September's general election.
But the election should also open the way for Schroeder to start serious negotiations with the conservatives over the painful program of welfare, health and pension reforms and a related set of tax cuts he is counting on to help kick start the stagnant economy.
Talks in Berlin between the SPD and the conservatives, who can block most of the measures as they control the upper house of parliament, have come to a standstill in the run-up to the election. The conservatives do not want to be seen to back vote-losing welfare cuts during the campaign.
The conservatives have been at pains to play down some predictions that their majority could end up as high as two thirds but the SPD has effectively written off Bavaria, where the CSU has held an absolute majority since 1962.
Stoiber's traditional appearance in Bavarian costume at the opening of the annual Oktoberfest beer festival in Munich on Saturday was greeted with the customary roar of approval from the crowd and he has made great play of Bavaria's solid economy in the campaign.
But a landslide win would also reinforce his position as one of the leaders of the national opposition, potentially giving him a role as kingmaker in anointing a future challenger to Schroeder or even allowing him to resume the mantle himself at the next elections in 2006.
Sat September 20, 2003 06:50 PM ET
By James Mackenzie
MUNICH, Germany (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats face their third major defeat this year Sunday in a state election that Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber is forecast to win by a landslide.
Polls predict Stoiber's Christian Social Union (CSU), which has held power in the Alpine state of Bavaria for four decades, will increase its share of the vote to about 60 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) will struggle to top 20 percent.
After heavy defeats in state polls in Hesse and Lower Saxony, another big loss would underline Schroeder's weak standing nationally and step up pressure as he attempts to steer an ambitious package of reforms through parliament this autumn.
It would also represent a measure of revenge for Stoiber a year to the day since Schroeder defeated him by just 6,000 votes in last September's general election.
But the election should also open the way for Schroeder to start serious negotiations with the conservatives over the painful program of welfare, health and pension reforms and a related set of tax cuts he is counting on to help kick start the stagnant economy.
Talks in Berlin between the SPD and the conservatives, who can block most of the measures as they control the upper house of parliament, have come to a standstill in the run-up to the election. The conservatives do not want to be seen to back vote-losing welfare cuts during the campaign.
The conservatives have been at pains to play down some predictions that their majority could end up as high as two thirds but the SPD has effectively written off Bavaria, where the CSU has held an absolute majority since 1962.
Stoiber's traditional appearance in Bavarian costume at the opening of the annual Oktoberfest beer festival in Munich on Saturday was greeted with the customary roar of approval from the crowd and he has made great play of Bavaria's solid economy in the campaign.
But a landslide win would also reinforce his position as one of the leaders of the national opposition, potentially giving him a role as kingmaker in anointing a future challenger to Schroeder or even allowing him to resume the mantle himself at the next elections in 2006.
What does this portend for the German national elections in 2006? Is Schroeder doomed? Can he fight his way out of this ever-deepening pit? Will Americans ever consistantly spell his name correctly?
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