Iraqi Shiites Don't Want Islamic Gov't

[Japher]

meow...

[Snotty]

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by yavoon
this thread is funny. watchin all the leftists creep on skepticism w/ no real ground yet. go out and find some and come back so it doesn't look quite so contrived.

All?

[GePap]

I doubt support in Iran in 1979 was overhwlemingly for a theocracy: the thing is, the clerics were the ones most prepared to take charge, and eventually they did take over and purge all other revolutionary elements. I doubt if a poll had been conducted in France in 1790, a sgnificant portion would have said :we want an emperor! Or, we would really like a directoaret, or even, we would like a bloody purge!

The question in Iraq is, who has the guns, who has the organization, who has the drive.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Don't be an ass, Boris. I didn't say Zogby was inaccurate per se. I said recent polls in Zogby's past tended to show more support for the Democrats then the election results would show.

You said, in two different threads, that Zogby was "biased" and "slanted." You also failed to support your assertion that this was the case, and it was shown that, in reality, Zogby was the most accurate of the national polls in regards to the election results.

"Biased" and "slanted" are just another way of saying "inaccurate," you know.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
I doubt support in Iran in 1979 was overhwlemingly for a theocracy: the thing is, the clerics were the ones most prepared to take charge, and eventually they did take over and purge all other revolutionary elements. I doubt if a poll had been conducted in France in 1790, a sgnificant portion would have said :we want an emperor! Or, we would really like a directoaret, or even, we would like a bloody purge!

The question in Iraq is, who has the guns, who has the organization, who has the drive.

4th ID and 101st AB, for now.

[GePap]

Those are guns, NOT organization (which must be political), and the drive is questionable.

[realpolitic]

Originally posted by Adam Smith
Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

I've heard that Khomeni lied about giving people more rights than he did, he also shot at his own demonstrators, so the Shah would get the blame. His popularity went down when the truth came out. The Iranian press is interesting, and they are excellent at sarcasm, www.iranian.com is an interesting epaper.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
Those are guns, NOT organization (which must be political), and the drive is questionable.

I thought you meant organization in terms of administration, not political organization. Hard to tell about organization - lots of talk about political parties of all kinds emerging in Baghdad, but no real clear evidence of who has how much organization on the ground. PUK and KDP are certainly the best organized groups on the ground, but limited presense outside the North. SCIRI vs Sadr vs Dawa vs INC vs communists in the south. Vacuum in the center. No one in the dominant position of the Jacobins in 1792, or the Leninists in 1917, if that was what you meant. And I doubt either the Jacobins or Leninists could have stood up to a strong military force - the Jacobins for all their drive, fell fairly easily.


Dont underestimate the drive of the US troops though.


Id pick the 4 ID and 101st AB over the Czechoslovak legion (or the federalist forces of 1792 Lyons and Marseilles) as an effective force for controlling a revolutionary political dynamic, any day.

[GePap]

Those two divisions can't police the country adequately, and that is in a time of relative political quiet. They would be swamped in a time of radical political fervor unless the people commanding them (Bremmer and the admin, not the generals) had a clear plan of what political vision they wished to IMPOSE on Iraq, which sadly runs counter to the whole "making Iraq free" bit. If 200,000 Shi'a tommorrow started marching for an islamic republic daily and then marched on Baghdada ala Facists 1920 in Italy, the US admin. and the Iraqi council would be in serious political trouble, if not in any military danger.

And that is the point: military power works only in the hands of a resolved political system. The immense army oif the Shah could not stem revolution once the moarchy tottered, the Russian army could not stop revolution once the streets were in turmoil....

So a couple of nice shinny divisions by themselves will NOT be what determines the politicla future of Iraq.

[chequita guevara]

You forgot the 3rd Marines.