Iraqi Shiites Don't Want Islamic Gov't

[DanS]

Here is the first real poll of Iraqi public opinion from a firm that I respect, Zogby. Zogby has been very good at getting a handle on US public opinion. Zogby also makes a pretty serious hobby of public opinion in the Arab world.

600 interviewed. 4% margin of error.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110003991

Many of the figures aren't surprising, but I was surprised at the lack of support for an islamic gov't among Shiites.

[chequita guevara]

The US has strong support among the Shia, lord only know why after we shafted them so badly in 1991. Maybe they forgave us.

[DanS]

Better late than never, I guess.

[chequita guevara]

The early assassination of the pro-US cleric (with the machete) seems to have backfired on the more reactionary forces. The bombing has really backfired.

[The diplomat]

Just for the record, I already started a thread on this exact poll. Check the thread "The truth about Iraq".

But yes. They are very interesting results. I think it shows that Iraq is doing better than the nay-sayers are willing to admit.

[Adam Smith]

Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

[Lefty Scaevola]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
The US has strong support among the Shia, lord only know why after we shafted them so badly in 1991. Maybe they forgave us.

We shafted them? The began a revolt AFTER we had signed a cease fire. They made a separatist revolt when the Administration repeatedly stated it would not support separatism in Iraq. They waited until it was too late to be any help to the coallition, and sought to capitalize on the blood it had already spent.

[DanS]

Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

That's a good question. I don't know of any poll figures in Iran for this period. I would guess that there aren't any, considering the kind of interest that would generate nowadays.

Diplomat: Yeh, I now see that. Sorry.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Lefty Scaevola
We shafted them?

Yes. We told them we would help them if they revolted. They revoleted (before the cease fire, btw). We didn't help them. During the negotiations the Iraqi government asked if the ban on flying included helicopters, we said no, and Iraq used it's helicopters to put down the revolt.

Then the Kurds revolted.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Adam Smith
Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

There was a lot of support for it, but I can't say if it was a majority or large minority. The Iranian revolution almost took a (small-c) communist direction, with workers setting up their own soviets (workers councils). The student seizeure of our embassy helped the Islamists to solidify power and determine the direction of the revolution.

[Adam Smith]

Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle).

I think there is a bias problem here. As I understand it, the countryside is more fundamentalist, the cities more liberal. Note also that Baghdad, with fundamentalist enclaves in the slums, is not included.

five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq

This isn't exactly encouraging either.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

[Boris Godunov]

Re: Iraqi Shiites Don't Want Islamic Gov't

Originally posted by DanS
Here is the first real poll of Iraqi public opinion from a firm that I respect, Zogby. Zogby has been very good at getting a handle on US public opinion. Zogby also makes a pretty serious hobby of public opinion in the Arab world.

Wait...where are all the people claiming Zogby is inaccurate and biased towards liberals? Shi? Chris62?

Oh wait...this is something they'd agree with, so naturally it must be right...

[Shi Huangdi]

Don't be an ass, Boris. I didn't say Zogby was inaccurate per se. I said recent polls in Zogby's past tended to show more support for the Democrats then the election results would show.

[HershOstropoler]

"Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33% want an Islamic government; a solid 60% say no."

Odd option. I would have found it more interesting to ask Islamic, Baathist or Democratic. 4:5 on Democracy isn't great either given the urban bias, as AS said.

The article is widely optimistic, that's really surprising coming from "Mr. Zinsmeister, editor in chief of The American Enterprise magazine and holder of the J.B. Fuqua chair at the American Enterprise Institute"