Why Arnold may be tough to beat in California

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Ted Striker


Like I said, we are talking about NOW, not before. I already said they screwed it up the first time.

So what's suddenly changed? This has been ongoing since after the '96 national elections, which is why the Dems rocked in '98.

When you see the heavyweights come in and start endorsing the Terminator, then we'll how much they have "written" him off.

Endorsements are cheap. Campaigns aren't, especially in California media markets. There wouldn't even be a real recall if Issa hadn't underwritten the whole thing. And the RNC hasn't written off Arnie per se, though the social conservatives won't accept him, they've written off the whole state until the state party gets solvent and proves it can start really taking ground again.

Not only that, Bush gets an early start at his own campaign by being able to address the 36 million people of California.

You mean like landing on an aircraft carrier? Bush doesn't need "an early start" - October 2003 may as well be back in the ice ages when it comes down to a November 2004 election. Bush doesn't even have anyone to run against yet - you think he's gonna put in more than token time in Cali for arnie? Hell, the party establishment doesn't like the whole recall process anyway.

Yes he did and you know he did. As sad as Davis is as a politician, the move he pulled by attacking Riorden in the Republicans own primaries is probably the most masterful political move I've ever seen anybody pull off. So Davis did end up picking him.

Masterful political move my ass - candidates have slammed other party candidates prior to general elections, or had their proxies in the media do it for them. Davis was unpopular then, and if the state or national Republican party really wanted Riordan, they would have gotten him through the primary.

Yeah he was a dead duck but it was common knowledge that Bush was distancing himself from Simon because of all of Simon's legal problems.

Duh! Just because you've got an albatross running for office in your own party doesn't mean you start wearing it around your own neck.

[Ned]

You guys are going to love this. The radic-libs are already slinging the dirt. Limbaugh made a joke ad with a soundbite from Kathie ("red is my favorite color") Couric. Within minutes a caller phoned saying that Davis was already running just such a mudslinging ad.

Here is a link to the joke ad: http://mfile.akamai.com/5020/wma/rus...atiecaller.asx

[Berzerker]

The hardest audience Arnold has to worry about is ironically the far right.

Yup, if the GOP puts up a "conservative", I think the Democrats could keep the office. I just heard Jamie Lee Curtis has endorsed Arnie, and she's quite liberal. But she did star with him in "True Lies" so she probably respects and trusts him. She even said she'd support him for Prez, and I heard Sen Orrin Hatch wants to amend the Constitution to allow foreign born Americans to run for Prez... I'd have to agree with that amendment, just doesn't seem reasonable for a country built by immigrants to exclude them from the White House...

[Ted Striker]

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[MichaeltheGreat]

Of course Davis is going to get untracked quick.

He has nothing to lose - he can't be sued by any candidate he smears (nor can his attack dogs) under the doctrine of public figure immunity, so every candidate is fair game. If he loses, he's done politically, so nothing to lose there.

If it backfires, he's still got the dirt going, and Bustamante and the party can distance themselves from it, while still benefitting.

Precisely because Davis has always been a dirty campaigner and has nothing to lose this time, I expect high gear smear all the way.

[HershOstropoler]

Re: Why Arnold may be tough to beat in California

I'd vote for Arnie.

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

Schwarzenegger came to America from Austria, a country with a socialist mindset

[Ted Striker]

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[Ted Striker]

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[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Ted Striker
What's suddenly changed is that they have a big name on the ticket and a Repulican in the White House.

A big name for what? A part term orphan governor brought about by a recall neither party establishment is happy with?

That stunt went off pretty well I'd say.

Whoooooosh! That point went over your head like a Navy jet. The point is Bush can create publicity stunts without running the risk that his "endorsement" (in a state that voted for Gore) won't bring home the bacon. Bush has a million more lucrative ways of raising money for HIS election.

I'm sure they don't like spending half of their time raising money either but they know sometimes they have no choice.

Are you ****ing kidding? The party establishment lives for nothing else but fundraising. They don't hold office. And whooosh, that point went over your head as well. Neither party wants to encourage the idea of voter recalls whenever the voters get pissed off. Power to the electorate means power away from the pigs at the trough, so the establishment has a hell of a lot more in common with each other's interests than they do with the voter's interests in this case.

Oh, and I suppose next you're going to tell me Mr. Smith goes to Washington was true?

Nobody has ever executed a move as masterful as Davis did. I mean the dude spent over $60 mill on his reeclection campaign and I GUARANTEE an equal amount was spent on slamming Riorden in the primaries as there was slamming Simon in the actual elections.

Hell, Davis is an amateur compared to Clinton. And FDR would run circles around Clinton.

Just like Al Gore huh?

Lower level officeholders can at least argue they're obligated to support their parties candidate for the Presidency. It doesn't work in reverse. Besides, how many Dems are using the line that "so-and-so failed to get Gore elected, so I should run in the general election for Podunk dogcatcher instead of him"

Gore won in Cali, so he's not an albatross here like he was in a lot of other states.

[HershOstropoler]

"Hapsburg empire West "

Where the sun does not set.

And I'd prefer an endorsement from Peta Wilson.

[Ted Striker]

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[Kramerman]

Originally posted by Soul Survivor
I'd vote for Arnold

1. He has no political experience. With the way politics is today, thats a good thing.

2. He has no special interests, sure he might propse a bush-esque tax cut, but besides that I think he genuinely wants whats best for California.

3. He alone could enforce the law.

thats what i say

I only wish he could run for president... amend the freaking Constituion, i say!

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Ted Striker


Once something's been put on the table, jack, people learn to deal with it. And yes he is the biggest name out there. Period.

Yeah, baby. Both parties suddenly figure, "Hey, there's one recall, let's make it actually happen and encourage more!"

Nope. 36 million people. You do the math.

So why wasn't Bush campaigning last month? Because it's too ****ing early, it doesn't do anything for him, and because in polls, he'd lose here. He'll spend time here when it suits his interest. Learn something about campaigns.

Way to put words in my mouth but I'm not talking about specifically, "the establishment," I'm talking about the actual candidates who are running.

Well, unless they autofund their own campains, they look for financial, mobilization and other support from the state and/or national party establishments.

Too bad, it's on the table, and it has to be dealt with. Better to take what's given then to just ignore it and hope it will go away. Sometimes people, especially entreched old people, have a hard time dealing with things.

And the first half of it isn't even assured. Both parties would love to see a no vote on the recall - that's why Issa had to throw his own money into it so much - the state party DOESN'T SUPPORT A RECALL. <-- Period. It's like a barroom door, it swings both ways.

Like when heavy armored divisions are scaled down in favor of light mobile units, for example.

Gee, what movie did you see that in? It hasn't happened in the US. Or do you think we still had "heavy tanks" and "medium tanks"

I think Marc Antony had them all beat but we can take your silly analogy as far back as you want to go.

Davis is a fairly skilled minor league dirty campaigner. If he was such a ****ing genius, he'd find a way to shuffle the blame off onto someone else. Hell, Clinton got reelected AND survived impeachment. Davis is an amateur.

Clinton was the one who screwed over Gore.

Gore screwed over himself, by being Gore.

But the point moved over your head like one of Rumsfeld's light infantry divisions.

Whoosh!

Didn't know Rummy had any light infantry of his own. Last I heard, we still had the ol' 10MD and 25ID(L), same as we did before he got into town.

And Rummy's strategy is so ****ing brilliant we have 99 of 155 line battalions within the US Army deployed overseas into combat or potential combat zones. in the field means you get 2 MRE's, not just 1.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Dude, ONE leg is enough .

If it's good enough for McCartney.....

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Sava
Illinois... I saw 3... Nader, Gore, Bush... and box for write-in.

Which box was already filled in?