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  • #16
    Unemployment Rate Drops, Even as Payrolls Fall


    By Jeannine Aversa
    Associated Press Writer
    Friday, August 1, 2003; 8:53 AM


    The nation's unemployment rate declined to 6.2 percent in July as nearly half a million discouraged Americans stopped looking for a job. Payrolls were cut for the sixth month in a row, suggesting businesses remain cautious and want to keep work forces lean despite budding signs of an economic revival.

    The Labor Department's report Friday painted a picture of a job market that remains stubbornly sluggish and continues to frustrate people looking for work.

    The economy lost 44,000 jobs in July. While that's an improvement from the 72,000 shed in June, economists were hoping that positions would actually be added. They were forecasting payrolls to go up by around 10,000.

    Although the jobless rate dipped to a two-month low of 6.2 percent from a nine-year high of 6.4 percent in June, much of decline's July represented the exodus of 470,000 discouraged people who abandoned job searches because they believed no jobs were available.

    The lackluster job market, however, hasn't stopped consumers -- the main force keeping the economy afloat - from spending.

    In a second report, consumer spending and Americans' incomes each rose by 0.3 percent in June, the Commerce Department said. The income gain matched economists' expectations, while the spending figure was slightly weaker.

    President Bush, mindful of the political defeat his father suffered in 1992 during a weak economy, pushed for a third round of tax cuts, which were passed by Congress in May.

    The administration insists the fresh $330 billion package along with previous tax cuts will help the economy grow and eventually create jobs. But Democrats say the cuts have not energized the job market and that they have mainly benefited the wealthy and are helping to plunge the federal budget deficit into a record amount of red ink this year and next.

    In July, there were 2 million out-of-work people looking for a job for 27 weeks or longer, about the same level as in June, the government said.

    The labor force shrank by 556,000 in July to 146 million, contributing to the decline in the nation's jobless rate. Discouraged workers accounted for a large chunk of those streaming out of the work force during the month.

    Manufacturers, hardest hit by the 2001 recession, continued to hemorrhage jobs. The sector lost 71,000 positions in July, marking the 36 month in a row of job losses.

    Retailers cut 14,000 jobs in July, and education and health services lost 1,000.

    The economy grew at a 2.4 percent rate in the second quarter, helped out by the biggest increase in defense spending since the Korean War. While that was an improvement over the mediocre growth seen in the previous two quarters, it still wasn't strong enough to help the labor market.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and private economists believe the economy will stage a material rebound in the second half of this year. Bush's tax cuts along with near rock-bottom short-term interest rates should motivate consumers and businesses to spend and invest more, giving the recovery a lift.

    Some economists are predicting a growth rate in the second half in the range of 3.5 percent to 4 percent or more.

    Even if that turns out to be the case, it will take time for the job market to show real improvement, economists said. Companies, wanting profits to improve and wanting to be more certain of the recovery's strength, will wait before stepping up full-time employment, analysts said.

    To help the recovery along, the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate on June 25 by one-quarter percentage point to 1 percent, a 45-year low. Friday's report may hold the door open to a possible rate reduction at the Fed's next meeting on Aug. 12.


    © 2003 The Associated Press

    It looks as if Fez doesn't have the whole story. The economy is "doing better" on paper primarily because of increase defense spending... money which consumers and working people won't ever see.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3114153.stm

    Profits at Exxon Mobil, the world's biggest oil company, have more than doubled - boosted by higher gas and oil prices.

    The group said that in the last three months profits had jumped to $4.17bn (£2.61bn) from $2.64bn in the same period last year.
    It's nice to know some corporations are making obscene amounts of money while millions of Americans still can't find a job.
    To us, it is the BEAST.

    Comment


    • #17
      i'll believe it when i see it.

      right now, my closest friend's parent doesn't have a job because he's either really overqualified or not what they're looking for. doesn't help that he's a programmer that's in his 50s, either.

      when he starts actually having his calls get returned, then i'll believe there's a recovery.
      B♭3

      Comment


      • #18
        just as most competent economists have

        Not true. There are a lot more competent economists out there than you think.
        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Berzerker


          Clinton defended Bush's economic policies too?


          I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
          - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Straybow
            The so-called growth is spending at the expense of savings. Refinancing is just debt restructuring and new housing / remodeling is a non-returning investment.

            Capital formation is still as low as has been ever since the .com bubble burst. That means the growth is not sustainable. Refinancing has already bottomed out, and the disproportionate housing boom almost certainly means a glut is to follow.

            Spin: This has little to do with policy in Washington. For the average Joe housing is the best investment available. The Republican tax cuts are for individual payers, not corporations.
            There's still plenty of capital. That's why interest rates are so low. There just enough productive places for it.
            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

            Comment


            • #21
              The economy lost 44,000 jobs in July but the economy grew by 2.4% (maybe) last quarter. Most of that was due to increased defense spending but some was due to increased consumer spending. I still say that consumer spending will have to increase much much more to create the kind of growth that will create jobs. I don't think that's coming by election day.
              I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
              - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

              Comment


              • #22
                Consumers can't spend if they don't have jobs to make money.
                To us, it is the BEAST.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Sava
                  Consumers can't spend if they don't have jobs to make money.
                  Well wages are up a bit. Employers usually boost wages after they make cut backs. Overall though total wage growth is not growing or it's not growing by much.
                  I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                  - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Kidicious


                    Well wages are up a bit. Employers usually boost wages after they make cut backs. Overall though total wage growth is not growing or it's not growing by much.
                    Yeah, wages for those who have jobs... with less people working, it's easier to raise wages a tad.
                    To us, it is the BEAST.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      The labor market is wierd like that-doesn't like to follow the 'laws' of economics.
                      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        The labor market has always been a lagging indicator, but until this business cycle, it's been fairly predictable.

                        Something about this time around is different, though. It just keeps getting worse and worse, with no real end in sight.

                        There are signs that things may be improving, but numbers on paper don't mean much to most Americans. They want to see wage growth and job creation. We're a long way from that, even assuming that economy doesn't slip again.
                        "She climbed backwards out her
                        window into Outside Over There."

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Yes, when military spending increases at 44.1% annual rate in the second quarter, that does tend to boost the economy. Military spending has increased to its highest quarterly rate since the Korean War.

                          In other words, the Republicans are spending their way out of the recession by spending money on the military, just like Hitler.
                          Golfing since 67

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            The tax cuts havnt done **** yet, except for getting invested into the stock market for a few days, waiting till the stock goes up (a self fufilling prophecy since the more you invest in a particular stock, the more it will increase) and then sell, making yourself richer. Tax cuts don't restart the economy, unless they are targetted to the working and lower middle class.

                            And damn, since when was the unemployment over 6%? I thought it was around 5.9. AT least it was when I went on vacation . . .
                            "Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito Mussolini

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Sava, what the hell do you know about economics. All that matters is the unemployment fell to 6.2%. I would go back to your textbooks. The cuts were less than expected, and the economy is turning around. You fortunately cannot complain about Bush's economic policies as they are helpful to the country.

                              Tingkai, it is immature to compare the republicans to Hitler.

                              Kidicious, learn to read the article. The majority of economic growth was because of increased business investment.
                              For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Sava

                                It's nice to know some corporations are making obscene amounts of money while millions of Americans still can't find a job.
                                So according to you we should destroy those companies. You should be ashamed of yourself.
                                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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