China Pushes North Korea and U.S. Talks

[Giancarlo]

I think the Chinese could actually end up invading North Korea. The PRC has about $50 billion (or perhaps $70B) in trade with South Korea from the last figures I heard.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Fez
I think the Chinese could actually end up invading North Korea. The PRC has about $50 billion (or perhaps $70B) in trade with South Korea from the last figures I heard.

I think a Sino-American alliance of NK is a good Idea. the SK's don't want us there, so we get the Chinese to do it for us.

[TCO]

I think that the Chinese have a very different take on the NK than we do. They have problems with them occasionaly. Yes. Buyt they also get benefit from having a client state, including one who ties our panties in a bunch. Don't be so sure that the incentives are very well alinged from us and them.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by Odin


I think a Sino-American alliance of NK is a good Idea. the SK's don't want us there, so we get the Chinese to do it for us.

I think it is a strong possiblity this might end up happening.... South Korea might end up joining in the end, after all having a rather powerful military.

TCO: I must disagree. China has $50 billion worth of trade with South Korea, it has $700 million with North Korea. Now you see why China does not want anything happening? They will see $50 billion go up in smoke, and not to mention further damage to their own economy.

[TCO]

You ascribe way too much importance to that trade balance. That cuts both ways, young neophyte.

[GePap]

Wars are bad for local stability, drtive out foreing investment, ergo China will not invade NK: the day that happens is the day the Bush admins. creates univcersal health care in the US.

The question is, in a US,SK, Japan v NK war. does China cut NK off and shorten the war significantly? porbably. But a war with NK will not be pretty, speically once they have nukes on missiles aimed for Tokyo.

[mindseye]

I think we need to start clandestinely supporting right-wing yahoos in Japan, who are already pretty vocal. We need to help them shake the tree a little harder. Whenever Japan and the "n-word" appear in the same sentence, the Chinese become very, very concerned.

Many (most?) Chinese, even educated young Chinese, unabashedly despise the Japanese. A nuclear Japan is such an intolerable concept that they will certainly force NK's hand should it come to that. China supplies a large share of NK's electricity, that's a powerful thumbscrew.

[Q Classic]

checking in.

china won't invade nkorea. it would put not only trade with skorea at risk, but also with many other nations, no matter how heinous the nkorean regime is. nkorea going nuclear would lead the others in the region to follow. nkorea is ultrapaparnoid, which is why they want nukes. nobody wants a nuclear japan, except maybe japan and certain factions in the us. this misconception that the skoreans don't want americans there is exactly that, a misconception. and since nobody seems to really care about my opinion, i'm checking out now.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by GePap
given that it makes the military option that less politically viable, speically if the NK shows it could hit Japan with nukes.

Given that an assault on them isn't all that politically viable to begin with, I fail to see how this is much of a gain.

[GePap]

The admin. theorizes that they could cary out air attacks against nuclear facilities as a last resort. Once the NK has nukes on hand, the airstrikes are a bit late, and given the status of the NK, even airstrikes would probalby lead to all out war.

The admin. still has force as it last optiion, but given that it does not care to talk much with the north at this moment, this leaves the admin. with non-military pressure, which leaves China as the key; or military attack. The thing is, how far China is willing to go is questionable. So unless the US takes Chinas offer for talks, that only pushes us towards the use of force.

[TCO]

GePap, did you study illogic? None of your propositions follow logically. Why does "not talking" force us to use our nonmilitary pressure. How would "talking" change it? You are a buttbrain.

[GePap]

Are you morphing into Fez?

Lets see:

Bush admin.s stated aim: to prevent a nuclear north korea.

Possible methods to use:
1. Negotiaions: strike a deal with NK to ends it's nuclear program.
2. Use economic pressure to force the NK regime to back down and give up its nuclear wepaons program.
3. Use force to destroy the North's nuclear weapon program.

If the admin. will noty use method one, it follows logically that it must use either method's 2 or 3, toherwise, they must be lying when they state their aim. Now, the admin. ca try to use 2. as a precurson to 1., but China is the key to making 2. work. China at this point refuses to play along and is pushing for 1. All the while the NK's move closer to a bomb. Once NK is nuclear, the satkes go up all around, so if the admin. whishes to stop NK form getting nukes now, it either takes China's offer, or as long as China refuses to make 2. a reality, has to go with 3.

Oh, yes, higly illogical.... must be the bends you are getting TCO.

[TCO]

You have at least expalained your argument now. It is a crappy one. But at least it follows.

[DanS]

There are other options, and combinations of options that the administration can use, GePap. For instance, coercive negotiations, interdiction, etc.

[DanS]

I think we need to start clandestinely supporting right-wing yahoos in Japan, who are already pretty vocal. We need to help them shake the tree a little harder. Whenever Japan and the "n-word" appear in the same sentence, the Chinese become very, very concerned.

Those right-wing yahoos are insufferable. Also, don't they have like less than 1% support? Anyway, perhaps this tree does need shaken harder, but aren't the NKers doing this well enough?

As an aside, do the majority of Japanese really support nukes, if there were no pressing threat from NK?