Bush Hints at Intervention in Liberia

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by skywalker

(please notice : there is little chance this support lasts if the US tries to go the only path that can end the crisis, i.e a loyalist + rebel government)

I'm not sure I understand this. You're saying if they do what they need to to fix the crisis, they'll lose support?

Yes. Very probably.
At least if the population is divided between rebel-sympathizers and loyalist sympathisers. Fortunately, the riots can let us hope that Taylor is universally hated, except by a few soldiers. I also have no idea of the ethnic background of the rebellion. If the rebellion doesn't represent an ethnicity, the support for it across all Liberia may be higher as well.

Consensus-building isn't much of a value in today's Africa, and giving some favors to the enemy is quickly assimilated to treason.

That's precisely why France's intervention in Ivory Coast wasn't popular: the Loyalists believed France was on the Rebel's side, and the Rebels believed France was on the Loyalist's side.

In Congo, everytime the EU troops take real action against Faction A, Faction B assumes the EU is completely on its side, and becomes very disappointed when EU troops take action against Faction B.

Maybe Liberia is different, but it appears that in all of Africa, the concept of "both parties do sacrifices to reach an agreement" does not exist, and that any sacrifice done this way equates a defeat.

OTOH, if Bush can make such a national reconciliation government, things should abate, and the opinion's hostility will recue. Way to go

[PLATO]

Perhaps we will be fortunate enough that the presence of US troops in Africa will bring the plight of that continent to the forfront of public awareness. If ever there was a place that needs western help, Africa is it.

[Kuciwalker]

And people say the US is universally hated

[DinoDoc]

I hope Bush has a quid pro quo worked out with the UN for the increase.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
I hope Bush has a quid pro quo worked out with the UN for the increase.

Fat chance. That organization appears to think that the US should bear all responsibility for things it approves of and should stay out of things it does not.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Doesn't matter anyway. The benefits for intervention are more than anything the UN can provide us .

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Doesn't matter anyway. The benefits for intervention are more than anything the UN can provide us .

Without a doubt.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by PLATO1003
That organization appears to think that the US should bear all responsibility for things it approves of and should stay out of things it does not.

This is wrong. The UN generaly relies on regional powers to carry out its decisions, and asks the global powers to do it when no satsfying regional power can do it. That's why Australia was the most important force behind East-Timor's pecekkeping, that's why France + EU are the force behind the intervention in the DRC, etc.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Doesn't matter anyway. The benefits for intervention are more than anything the UN can provide us .

I don't know about that. International troops in Iraq would be most helpful.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
How the hell did this balloon to 2k troops? I thought it was only going to be 500-1k troops.

500-1000 combat troops = 2000 combat troops plus REMFs.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The PR benefits are still worth more, IMO. That and gaining a foothold in trying to make West African a safe place (which leads to money ).

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Spiffor

Yes. Very probably.
At least if the population is divided between rebel-sympathizers and loyalist sympathisers. Fortunately, the riots can let us hope that Taylor is universally hated, except by a few soldiers. I also have no idea of the ethnic background of the rebellion. If the rebellion doesn't represent an ethnicity, the support for it across all Liberia may be higher as well.

95% of the population is African native. The rebellion(s) are ethnic, since Samuel Doe is the only indigenous tribal leader in the country's history - every other one, including Taylor, are from the ex-slave denscendant elite. Taylor is the unifying enemy, but then you get a dirt poor country and 20 different tribes competing for limited resources.

[Shi Huangdi]

I have thought about this, and I think this is in our national interest in some certain ways:

1) I think it is pretty well known Charles Taylor has had ties to Al Qaeda, using them for diamond laundering. I think we should emphasize this to help make the point that no connection whatsoever with Al Qaeda should be tolerated.

2) It would help restore America's image and prestige around the world after what happened with Iraq. Most importantly it will help rebuild our alliance with France, since France has already had troops there.

3) Since this would be done without the UN, it goes to discredit the UN further and build even more precedent that action can be taken without UNSC approval.

[DanS]

I don't think we should worry about America's prestige so much. Despite was some may say, America is looked at as a more reliable power after Iraq than before. This is reflected in the fact that everybody wants us in Liberia. And anyways, fvck France. The UN needs to get back into our good graces. Not the other way around.

I am more hesitant to do this, even if everybody wants us there. Or maybe, especially because everybody wants us there. Remember that the entire national budget of Liberia would fund about 400 American troops each year. Surely, there are more clever ways to skin this cat.

Edit: If we do this, I agree that it should be cloaked in the al Qaeda diamond laundering issue. However, I don't know who else would fall on the side of the bad guys by this distinction.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS
I don't think we should worry about America's prestige so much. Despite was some may say, America is looked at as a more reliable power after Iraq than before. This is reflected in the fact that everybody wants us in Liberia. And anyways, fvck France.

They want America in becuase : 1) Liberia 's history with us (they do speak English there), 2) Of the coutnries that could go in, the West African already have plenty of problems, the English have no connections, the French are already in Ivory Coast and have no connections to the place.