Champions League predictions - the final

[OneFootInTheGrave]

my votes 1-4 yes, 5: no as it is a bit too complex even though the new dynamic would be interesting...

Well, congrats, OFITG, a deserved win (even if you needed a little bit of help to get there )

thanks... well I am pretty sure that I couldn't get three correct scores in last three matches without a little help

[Locutus]

1. Y
2. Abstain
3. Y
4. Y
5. N

OFITG,
Possibly with the exception of Paul, I'm pretty sure you got by far the most correct scores throughout the tournament. Even though a lot of luck is involved in predicting the exact score, that's an impressive feat

[Wernazuma III]

1. Y
2. N
3. Y
4. Y
5. N

[Paul]

Originally posted by Locutus
OFITG,
Possibly with the exception of Paul, I'm pretty sure you got by far the most correct scores throughout the tournament. Even though a lot of luck is involved in predicting the exact score, that's an impressive feat

I checked the spreadsheet and OFITG had 31 exact scores (13.1%). I had 28 (11.8%).

I had the most correctly predicted winners/draws: 126 (53.2%), followed by Wernazuma with 122 (51.7%). But OFITG did better in the end, when there were more points per match.

Locutus, you could also have won if you hadn't missed the second leg of the quarterfinals. You could probably have made up 5 points in those 4 matches. You are the only person in the top 4 who didn't post predictions for all 237 matches.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

well, those last three did it, I was just hoping for a top 5 finish after the quater finals, but those last three matches, with by far the most points - got them all right - the last one thanks to Locutus

[Locutus]

Paul,
I have been keeping track of my own predictions and in correct scores I wasn't doing too badly either (just you and OFITG ahead of me), but I don't think I got more than 25 right. 25 and 31 is a considerable gap...

Forgot all about those quarter finals: I had made the predictions beforehand but couldn't submit them because I couldn't reach 'poly for 4 or 5 days (I think in retrospect that that may have had to do with provider problems as well, as I don't think Apolyton was down for that long). I actually considered emailing my predictions to you but kind of figured I wouldn't be the only one unable to submit the predictions and sorta counted on some kind of provision being made for that...

Anyway, I would have gotten 15 points from those matches. So OFITG got a present from me twice Oh well, easy to talk like that in retrospect. Better luck next time...

[yaroslav]

My votes:

1) No
2) No
3) Yes
4) Yes
5) No, sorry Zopperoni Too complex for my tase...

[Paul]

Originally posted by Locutus
Forgot all about those quarter finals: I had made the predictions beforehand but couldn't submit them because I couldn't reach 'poly for 4 or 5 days (I think in retrospect that that may have had to do with provider problems as well, as I don't think Apolyton was down for that long). I actually considered emailing my predictions to you but kind of figured I wouldn't be the only one unable to submit the predictions and sorta counted on some kind of provision being made for that...

Before those quarter finals, Apolyton went down on Monday evening, around 24 hours before the matches. So everybody still had 4 days to post their predictions before that. Out of the top 10 only one other person didn't post predictions, and he had already stopped playing before the quarterfinals. As far as I'm concerned, this was a risk you take when you wait until the last day to post your predictions.

It would have been different if Apolyton had been down for a longer time before the matches and maybe we should make a rule for the next season. Let's say that Apolyton must be up for at least 72 consecutive hours between the time I post the thread and the start of the matches. I normally post my thread on Thursday, so that means that we will cancel predictions if Apolyton is down for more than 48 hours.

[Laertes]

I vote yes for 1-4. no for the other (would take too long to post)

How about we get some points for every goal that our nominated top goal scorer scores (maybe variable by stage, so that a goal in the final is worth more than a goal against the Lithuanian champions in the qualifying rounds) the bonus points still going to anyone who nominated the top scorer.

I ran a World Cup competition at my work, and for "nominating the qualifying teams from each group" part, you got more points for nominating unseeded teams, to encourage people to try and spot outsiders instead of everyone picking Madrid, Man U etc (not to say that I got many points for prediciting in this comp!)

[Paul]

I've added the votes so far:

1: pm predictions for final
yes: 6
no: 1

2: predict which team goes to the next round
yes: 3
no: 3
abstain: 1

3: predict both teams that go through from groups
yes: 7
no: 0

4: if 3 is accepted: bonus points for predicting which team is first and which team is second in the group
yes: 6
no: 1

5: pool of points
yes: 0
no: 6
abstain: 1

Looks like 1,3,4 will be accepted and 5 will be rejected. Only 2 is still open. I'll probably start a vote on Fergus's suggestions in the weekend. Any comments on those suggestions and new suggestions are also appreciated.

[Paul]

I hereby close voting on all proposals except proposal 2. Proposal 2 is still undecided, so I'll give everybody some more time to vote.

Proposals 1, 3 and 4 are hereby accepted.

Voting is open on proposal 2 and Fergus' proposals:

2. Applies to: UC and knockout stages of CL. Before the first leg we predict which teams go to the next round. (Only vote for this if you had not yet voted or if you want to change your vote)

5. Applies to: CL. Bonus points for every goal scored by your predicted topscorer.

6. Applies to: CL group matches. You can get more points if you predict that an unseeded team goes to the next round.

I have also made a proposal for changes in the scoring system based on the accepted proposals. I suggest that we get 2 points for each team that goes to the second round, 2 bonus points for predicting the group winner and 1 bonus point for predicting which team finishes second.

The second round will now be played in a knock-out system, so there will not be points for group winners. I suggest that we keep 3 points per match and 3 bonus points for the exact score in the second round.

I suggest no other changes in the scoring system unless one or more of the proposals 2, 5 and 6 is accepted.

If you don't agree with my suggested scoring system, post here. If nobody posts an objection before next weekend, the scoring system for the group winners and second places will be accepted.

[Wernazuma III]

5.No
6. Abstain

I'm fine with the scoring proposals, though, like last year, I have to add that the progressive scoring with more points in the end is exaggerated. One can make steadily good predictions but with a few exact hits of someone in the end-phase the whole scenery can change quickly. The progressive scoring favors chance. I wouldn't want to abolish it, but maybe it could be like this:

Quali rounds: 1p.+1
Group phase: 2p.+2
2nd round: 3p. +3
3rd round: 3p.+3
Quarters: 4p.+4
Semi: 4p.+4
Finals 5p.+5

Just a thought.

[Laertes]

5 Yes
6 Yes

[MikeH]

2 No
5 No
6 No

[Paul]

I should not forget my own votes:
5 No
6 No

Wernazuma, if we make those changes to the CL, we should also make similar changes to the UEFA Cup predictions. And perhaps also less points for predicting the CL and UC winner and the CL topscorer. I don't know if you had already thought about that.

You also put a third round in your suggestion, but the quarter finals come after the second round, so there won't be a third round.

For those of you who don't know all the numbers, the current scoring systems for the CL and UC predictions are:

Champions League:
Qualifying rounds: 1+1
First round groups: 2+2
Second round groups: 3+3
Quarter finals: 5+5
Semifinals: 7+7
Final: 10+10
CL winner: 25 (6 points if your predicted winner loses the final)
Topscorer: 10 (3 points if your predicted topscorer finishes second)

UEFA Cup:
Qualifying rounds: 1+1
First round: 2+2
Second round: 2+2
Third round: 3+3
Fourth round: 3+3
Quarter finals: 4+4
Semifinals: 5+5
Final: 7+7
UC winner: 10 (4 points if your predicted winner loses the final)