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  • #46
    Originally posted by Static Universe
    The so-called environmental movement is largely centered in the West. Given the pressure to send people Mars for a better life mainly seem to come from uninhabitable lands (for example the Arabs), or nations that cannot produce enough food relative to their population , I can't see that their preference wouldn't have been to turn their deserts into gardens in the first place. They don't seem such environmentalists to me anyway.


    Part of the problem is cost. On Earth, there is a money economy, and that has to be taken into account. It's very expensive to desalinate water. On Mars, where it's always below zero, they can simply set up a transport system to bring it back from the poles. They have an excess of rovers, so it's more cost effective to set up a system to drag ice down from the poles than other solutions.

    On Earth, it's easier to steal someone else's water rather than desalinate, and so you have wars over the Golan Heights, and Turkey daming the Tigris and Euphrates rivers or the US taking all of the water from the Colorado and leaving Mexico with a pittance. Poor countries get screwed, because they have neither the money to make potable water nor the power to steal it.

    Remember, Martian solutions are not necessarily applicable to Earth. Earth is much warmer, so making the Sahara bloom is a much more difficult problem. Even if you could get the water, what do you do about the heat? How will it affect the global climate, since it would change African weather patterns, which would presumably change weather elsewhere. Efforts to make Africa a foodbasket have falied because the high tech solutions given them in the past required a high energy input which couldn't be maintained when the price of oil exploded.

    Remember, Mars is a command economy, so they don't have to worry about what is economically inefficient. They don't send the minerals they mine home (before the space elevator) not because they can't, but because those on Earth wouldn't make any money doing it. But they have the capacity to do it.

    Especially since the sudden glut of previously scarce commodities would probably wreck the earth's global economy in days. The multinationals simply would simply not be allowed to rape Mars like they do in the book. I don't believe there would be a complete absence of import quotas laid down by the UN and regulatory control over Mars.


    The UN has no military other than what is granted it by the countries of the world, which can be yanked at any time. The UN has no police force. It has to hire private companies to police Mars. Once the transnationals get involved (or should we call the transplanetaries now?), the UN is simply a fig leaf for the corporations.

    As for what the glut of previously scare commodities would do to the economy, capitalism is anarchic. If it can be done profitably, it will be done, come hell or high water. Nor do companies stop to think about the consequnces of what everyone jumping in the market would do. That's why we have a boom-bust cycle. The Martian colonization and exploitation effort would be no different than any other newly profitable endever.

    Everyone would be trying to get in on the act and make as much money as possible without considering the consequences of everyone trying to do so at the same time. We have seen it over and over again with producer countries through the history of capitalism. The tobacco market, the cotton market, the sugar market, the banana market, the coffee market, etc. It will be the same in space.
    Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

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    • #47
      Yes, yes, I know we have no idea what's going on back on earth, but again, the level of technology shown could easily relieve these problems.


      How do you relieve the problems of overcrowding and not really touch those areas that people are living in already? That is the main problem, if you change the Sahara, what happens to the people that live on the edge of that desert, does their climate change?

      It doesn't matter what level of tech there is, there are always unintended consequences that perhaps the people on Earth don't want to deal with. There was some allusion that the Great Dust Storm may have been caused by some of Sax's terraforming. That just wouldn't fly on Earth. It could on Mars, because hardly anyone lives there.

      One of the things that confused me in the book is that the Russians and USA pay for it all, then in the second expedition there is no one from any of the countries represented in the original expedition. And the second expedition is like hundreds of people. WTF? Why would they logically do this?


      Squatter's rights. Or, better put, people who are there first have more power. The Americans and Russians obviously thought that those that were there first would give those countries more of a toehold than anyone else that came later. Remember, Frank was the US Secretary to Mars, and because he was on of the first, you can bet he had more of voice than, say, the Japanese Secretary, etc.
      “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
      - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
        Yes, yes, I know we have no idea what's going on back on earth, but again, the level of technology shown could easily relieve these problems.


        How do you relieve the problems of overcrowding and not really touch those areas that people are living in already? That is the main problem, if you change the Sahara, what happens to the people that live on the edge of that desert, does their climate change?

        It doesn't matter what level of tech there is, there are always unintended consequences that perhaps the people on Earth don't want to deal with. There was some allusion that the Great Dust Storm may have been caused by some of Sax's terraforming. That just wouldn't fly on Earth. It could on Mars, because hardly anyone lives there.
        You make a good point here, but it really boils down to an interpretation we have of the level of technology as presented in the novel. In my view, certainly the advances pioneered on Mars have direct application back on earth, in terms of chemistry, biophysics, whatever. Desalination is expensive and energy-consuming now, given the advanced chemical engineering they do on Mars, it's simply not believable to me that some of those processes wouldn't make it back to earth and be used for these purposes.

        Granted, this is a work of fiction, and doing this does not fit the story Robinson has planned.

        Squatter's rights. Or, better put, people who are there first have more power. The Americans and Russians obviously thought that those that were there first would give those countries more of a toehold than anyone else that came later. Remember, Frank was the US Secretary to Mars, and because he was on of the first, you can bet he had more of voice than, say, the Japanese Secretary, etc.
        But why would the American' knowing there are only 35(?) Americans on Mars, allow 100s of non-Americans to go to Mars and set up shop on their own? When they've help foot most of the bill. And the same goes for the Russians. It doesn't matter who is there first, it's about who has the most people there, the larger foothold. Whoever has that will inevitably be the more important political figure.

        And the supposed reverence for the First 100 in the book I really didn't find believable. Sure, they may be popular back on earth, but once someone gets to Mars, would they really care that much? I doubt it. I'd be like "Hey, nice to meet you John Boone, now get the hell out of my way because I've got a mining operation to set up for my transnational." If I'm on Mars, I really don't care who was there first. The fact that I'm there is what really matters.
        "We are living in the future, I'll tell you how I know, I read it in the paper, Fifteen years ago" - John Prine

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        • #49
          Yes, some technology could have applications back on Earth, but it still wouldn't solve the problems of rampant overcrowding.

          But why would the American' knowing there are only 35(?) Americans on Mars, allow 100s of non-Americans to go to Mars and set up shop on their own? When they've help foot most of the bill. And the same goes for the Russians. It doesn't matter who is there first, it's about who has the most people there, the larger foothold. Whoever has that will inevitably be the more important political figure.


          Why wouldn't they? Allow American and Russians to get set up before others come up. I mean, really, you think they could have prevented other countries from coming to Mars? At least this way, they could control how long American and Russian people had exclusive control.

          I think it was obvious though, that later settlements were not financed by the US or Russia, but by the UN itself.

          And the supposed reverence for the First 100 in the book I really didn't find believable. Sure, they may be popular back on earth, but once someone gets to Mars, would they really care that much? I doubt it. I'd be like "Hey, nice to meet you John Boone, now get the hell out of my way because I've got a mining operation to set up for my transnational." If I'm on Mars, I really don't care who was there first


          I guess that's another problem with our views on the book . I found it to be VERY believable. They would be heros. Hell, Buzz Aldren, Niel Armstrong, etc are ALL world famous and if they said anything about space travel, they'd be listened to.

          Imagine having someone like that in a small Martian community. The sense of awe at finding the first people on Mars would be overwhelming. They are utter celebrities. Not only are they the first, but also television celebrities. Remember, Robinson foresees the rise of reality television. These people become larger than life.
          “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
          - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

          Comment


          • #50
            As I have stated before, I didn't like Red Mars. This is mainly, I think, because it is everything which is bad about science fiction. It fails on every level.

            First of all, character development is either non-existent, stereotyped, or highly inconsistent. To me, it comes across as if most of the original 100 are deranged loonies - they all seem to be highly unstable, and I am left thinking "If this is the best 100 Earth can find, God help us al!". But I don't think this is deliberate - it is just poor writing ability on the part of KSR.

            Look at John. Atmittedly, his 'character' seems more stable, and I think this is because KSR doesn't have to think one up for him - he is a stereotype. The 'good ol' American boy'. Please... Then there is Frank, whose character I can't possibly describe because he doesn't have one. No-one can really be that shallow (can they? ). Arkady, Sax (as a scientist, this is the one that annoys me most - the nerd), Ann and Phylis are all stereotypes, and lets leave Maya to one side please.

            Hiroko, to me, is the most ridiculous part. First of all, it seems silly that someone could stow away aboard the ship and not be noticed. Even if he 'Coyote' could get into the ship before take off and survive the launch, he would have to remain hidden for the entire flight to Mars. Come on, this is supposed to be a well planned expedition - not a school outing. The landing, the description of which is woefully incomplete but presumably is done in capsules, would surely let the coyote out of the bag.

            Then there is the technical side. First of all, the timeframe is way wrong. The book wasn't written all that long ago (early '90s) so it shouldn't be that bad, but KSR has the first Mars colony by 2030. Even setting this to 2040, it is completely unbelievable. Then the colonization of Mars happens far too fast - they even have a space elevator 30 years latter!! . I suspect this is purely for plot/character reasons. In order to keep the original characters around, KSR has to move the colonization at a quick pace. It is for this reason too that the longevity treatment comes in someway through the book.

            It all seems far too easy. I don't know the specifics of launching space flights from Mars' reduced gravity, but would it really be viable for a new colony to be sending missions to Phobos and back again regularly. Would this not need lots of rocket fuel? If it is feasible why doesn't KRS explain how? There are so many bits and pieces like that that are glossed over, and it only gets worse further into the book.

            Then there is the water issue, the importance of making everything radiation hard, their seemingly endless supply of spare parts....

            Look how much preparation the Iraq war took. Do you really think that Earth governments would be able to send an invasion fleet to Mars in 60 years time?

            Finally, Swiss nomads As someone who works in Switzerland, the Swiss would be the last people I would expect to see colonizing Mars!

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            • #51
              This is a great discussion. I'll have to hop in a little after this post, but will add more tonight. Thanks!

              Comment


              • #52
                Rogan "Look how much preparation the Iraq war took. Do you really think that Earth governments would be able to send an invasion fleet to Mars in 60 years time?"

                Yeah, I do.

                I, too, was initially amused at how well funded the trip was, and I was pleased to note that the Earth would (apparently) have a functional and well-used Terra-based space infrastructure within 30-45 years. However, I don't think the events of this book are impossible on the timescales mentioned given a serious, dedicated long-term effort to solving these problems. If the govt's of the Earth decided to ante up $.5-1.0 trillion per year to space development then we could start to colonize Mars by 2030. I don't know about building the space elevator (much less 2 of them), but we do understand the principles of one and can divert, say, $25 billion/year to research "Space Elevator tech."

                In short: I don't expect to see it done, but I think we could do it.

                Frankly, I'm just salivating about the orbital, automated factories.

                "Then there is Frank, whose character I can't possibly describe because he doesn't have one. No-one can really be that shallow (can they? ). "

                Frank isn't driven by shallowness, he's driven by anger and fear, and yes: I know people like this.

                I also liked Maya. She just wanted to be loved, and what's wrong with that?

                Static Imho, the reverance afforded the first 100 is completely believable - you think the cult of celebrity is going to die on Earth?

                "In my view, certainly the advances pioneered on Mars have direct application back on earth, in terms of chemistry, biophysics, whatever. Desalination is expensive and energy-consuming now, given the advanced chemical engineering they do on Mars, it's simply not believable to me that some of those processes wouldn't make it back to earth and be used for these purposes."

                Did I miss a passage in the book that stated that they weren't? Obviously Mars returns a good investment, both for corporations and governments alike - they keep shipping people there in cattle cars, sure enough. The problem with people is that, at heart, we are still animals with a genetic compulsion to fill our ecological niche, and any efficiencies gained by new technologies will be exploited by the additional babies we create to use these resources.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by JohnT
                  This is a great discussion.
                  Totally agree! One of the best yet.

                  Rogan: Great comments!



                  I totally agree with everything you said. Books like this are one of the reasons I stopped reading a lot of science fiction in the first place. The fact that the Mars trilogy has won so many awards and receives such accolades really says a lot about the current state of science fiction, especially hard sci-fi.

                  It's gotten really difficult to find the really good, unique stuff out there. Mostly these days I seek out the hidden cult classics and pass over a lot of newer material. I didn't used to have to do that. Science fiction has always had a lot of derivative material, but these days it's gotten completely ridiculous.
                  "We are living in the future, I'll tell you how I know, I read it in the paper, Fifteen years ago" - John Prine

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by JohnT

                    Static Imho, the reverance afforded the first 100 is completely believable - you think the cult of celebrity is going to die on Earth?
                    My point is that when people get to Mars they are likely to be less reverent. Familiarity breeds contempt, after all. I'm surprised there aren't more conspiracy theorists in the future who put two and two together Frank and the Arabs, and the Arabs murder of Boone.

                    Did I miss a passage in the book that stated that they weren't? Obviously Mars returns a good investment, both for corporations and governments alike - they keep shipping people there in cattle cars, sure enough. The problem with people is that, at heart, we are still animals with a genetic compulsion to fill our ecological niche, and any efficiencies gained by new technologies will be exploited by the additional babies we create to use these resources.
                    Robinson's use of the "longevity vaccine" pretty much forces even more population problems on earth anyway, regardless of whatever use the earth might get from Mars technology. Another way Robinson compresses the time frame to fit the story, which I just don't like.
                    "We are living in the future, I'll tell you how I know, I read it in the paper, Fifteen years ago" - John Prine

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                    • #55
                      My point is that when people get to Mars they are likely to be less reverent. Familiarity breeds contempt, after all.


                      I don't think so. People are still in awe of sports stars even when they are face to face with them. That doesn't diminish because they hang out with them or live near them or something.

                      Robinson's use of the "longevity vaccine" pretty much forces even more population problems on earth anyway, regardless of whatever use the earth might get from Mars technology.


                      Isn't that the crux of the problem? That which was supposed to help Earth may have ended up hastening its destruction? It surely is an interesting connundrum that results because of it, and causes much political strife.


                      Oh, and I know people like Frank too . Of course, Frank is also a brilliant politican (though I don't know many of them ).
                      “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                      - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Hmm, maybe you have to be a trained engineer to fully appreciate many of the engineering aspects of the novel... It didn't occur to me to look at it from that angle, but now that I do, I realize that much of the engineering is left unspoken but assumed.

                        Static, you mentioned fuel for Phobos missions? Well, very early in the book they mention that they sent huge airminers to mars several years before the colonists, and one of the chemicals they strip is ammonia. The ammonia is converted to hydrazine, which they use to power their tractors. But hydrazine is also used as rocket fuel. It's not as efficient as a solid fuel rocket, but it doesn't have to be in mars low gravity. This is left unspoken, but to me it made sense, based on the knowledge I have of hydrazine...

                        Many of the technical issues you have with this book, Static, are dependant on one single thing: energy. If we had unlimited amounts of energy, we could easily turn the Sahara into a garden. (Imran: we'd probably **** up the parts around it the first couple of times, but eventually we'd get it right ). But we don't, not unless we get cold fusion to work.

                        On mars, you have an endless supply of sunlight. With selfsufficient orbital factories and no atmosphere interfering it is just a question of time and silicon to create vast solar receptors which then beams down energy to the surface.

                        Now, even with the futuristic technology in Red Mars, this isn;t possible for earth. Safety reasons prohibit the build of the solar satelite system in the first case (in case the beam is sent with just a few degrees error that could kill millions of people), and even if the engineering question could be solved, what would we do with the waste heat? The best of chemical processes usually get an energy efficiency of about 50%, which means that if we want to beam down energy to desalinate enough water to irrigate the saharas, we would have to add enough heat to increase the earth's temperature.

                        On mars, that isn't a problem, since they want to add energy...
                        Gnu Ex Machina - the Gnu in the Machine

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                        • #57
                          "familiariy breeds contempt"

                          Not in my experience... I work at Caltech, and regularly run into at least two recent nobel prize winners. Going to ignore a seminar by Watson in an hour, actually. But my familiarity with them doesn't in any way breed any contempt... Watson is a good example: he hasn;t done any research in years, but I still respect the man very much. He was a pioneer in the field, and when he speaks people listen.
                          Gnu Ex Machina - the Gnu in the Machine

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                          • #58
                            "Then there is Frank, whose character I can't possibly describe because he doesn't have one. No-one can really be that shallow (can they? ). "

                            Frank isn't driven by shallowness, he's driven by anger and fear, and yes: I know people like this.

                            I also liked Maya. She just wanted to be loved, and what's wrong with that?
                            I'd like to add that one of my friends is a copy of Sax... and if I had to pick three or four people to send to mars, he would be one of them.

                            Funny thing: One of the things you learn in engineering school is how incredibly unsuitable your classmates (and yourself) feel for most of the jobs you assume goes to responsible, competent people. Out of the 120 people who started with me, I would trust maybe five of them to run a nuclear power plant... But the take-home message here is that humans are humans, and they usually leave their quirks, peculiarities, strange hobbies and drunk behaviour at home. I've yet to hear of a project failing because the two head engineers were in a love triangle with a third...
                            Gnu Ex Machina - the Gnu in the Machine

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                            • #59
                              Rogan: I agree with JohnT. The timescale here is technically possible, although for political purposes not plausible.

                              But see it from the storytellers perspective: How interesting would this book be if you placed it 100 years in the future? Every single problem could be solved with a Deux Ex Machina: "and then Frank used his transmografer to turn all the salt into fluffy bunnies, who invariably suffocated in the thin atmosphere, but at least fertilized the soil". See what I mean?

                              If the author has to take some liberties I much rather have him assume that Bush miraculously grows up and starts working for a better world where people cooperate than for him to take liberties with the science.
                              Gnu Ex Machina - the Gnu in the Machine

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                It's been a while since I've read Red Mars, so can someone help me a bit? Che mentioned that Mars is a command economy. Was that stated in the book(s)? I thought Mars was an energy economy because I can remember a line about someone trying to purchase/trade hydrogen peroxide and getting all complainy over stuff like joule per mole output.

                                Or have I gone totally mad?
                                Exult in your existence, because that very process has blundered unwittingly on its own negation. Only a small, local negation, to be sure: only one species, and only a minority of that species; but there lies hope. [...] Stand tall, Bipedal Ape. The shark may outswim you, the cheetah outrun you, the swift outfly you, the capuchin outclimb you, the elephant outpower you, the redwood outlast you. But you have the biggest gifts of all: the gift of understanding the ruthlessly cruel process that gave us all existence [and the] gift of revulsion against its implications.
                                -Richard Dawkins

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