Attack on The Voice

[notyoueither]

I shall scream, and pout, if we do anything other than play the odds from here on out.

Fools and people losing play bad odds in hopes it works for them.

Attacks 1 and 2 were very reasonable.

3 was foolish, and begging to turn an advantage into a total loss.

[Arrian]

The way I see it, we *did* play the odds. That may sound odd, given that the third attack had a less than 50% chance of success, but that's the way I see it. We were, at that point, risking one skirmisher for a 42% chance (though if NYE is right about the RNG, it wasn't really a 42% chance) of a HUGE, game-breaking success.

The mistake, if there was one, was probably the second attack, actually. In retrospect, it was entirely reasonable to hit with Becks and see if he did a bunch of damage. He didn't, but there was just enough hope for us to press on. The cautious move would've been to cut bait right there, and left Zidane and Maz where they were.

-Arrian

[Harovan]

True, but I would go even farther and say either we attack with all 3 or we don't. Streakiness or no streakiness, it doesn't matter, that is just a tendency and you can't actually predict the next roll with it. And the odds with all 3 weren't that bad actually.

I didn't do the maths, but taking a bold guess I think the first attack disappointed, the second and third performed mediocre. Had one of them performed better than average, we would have won.

The whole thing was a gamble, completely random. There is no way to gamble better or worse, you can either gamble or not.

That said, and having recalculated the odds after the 1st attack (and thus opening a new game), it would probably have been better not to do the second. But we all know what hindsight is.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by notyoueither
As for reasons not to throw the last skirm away...

Diplomacy. We've suffered a loss. Jon Miller can present this to Nana and ACen. The more we lose the better his case is.

May I say, I TOLD YOU!

And they are not merely talking to AC and Nana about it.