Attack on The Voice

[Krill]

I think we are going to have to do the second attack soon, because it isn't fair on the other teams to just keep on putting this off. Say give it another hour for stragglers.

[Arrian]

I agree, for that reason and also for my own sanity.

You just KNOW we'll get the 40% result and spend another several hours debating.

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

I know you two are writhing around in agony, but hang in there!

We're at 5 votes now, 6 if you count me. I expect we'll get the save/turn out tonight, over the 24 hour window, but well under the 48 hour window.

[DeepO]

took option 3, but I'm more in between 2 and 3. I don't think it's a good idea to risk our last skirm, but the next one definately needs to go.

DeepO

[Krill]

So 9 people have voted...are we going to get this show on the road or what HM you're killing us with the suspense.

[Hot Mustard]

Attacked with Zidane - see turn thread.

[Arrian]

Originally posted by Arrian
I agree, for that reason and also for my own sanity.

You just KNOW we'll get the 40% result and spend another several hours debating.

-Arrian

I told you.

Of course.

Ok, we've got a 42% chance of success at this point. As I said in the turn thread, I recommend going for it. Charge!

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by Arrian


I told you.

Of course.

Ok, we've got a 42% chance of success at this point. As I said in the turn thread, I recommend going for it. Charge!

-Arrian

Yes, well you should also note that no one voted to use all three regardless, yourself included.

Perhaps you should start another poll, and make your case for the final Skirmisher to attack.

[Arrian]

I voted to proceed at the 40% chance. I would only stop at the 10% chance (or lower). The same was true of Sir Ralph and Solomwi, and now Krill is onboard.

There are some (one?) people who are unsure about the 40% chance, so there must be further discussion. DeepO, for instance.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Well, in any event my opinion is clear. I'll leave it to others to make the final call. I have to leave work, run some errands, and work on my house. I may log on later to check in, I may not.

Whatever course of action we choose, may the Storm prosper.

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

Expecting that the crowd drawn in yesterday will check back in this evening, we should get a clear picture of the team's collective opinion and be able to play it later this evening. I'm going to go out for dinner with the missus, but I'll be back.

I'm hoping to play the turn somewhere between 10pm and 12pm EST.

[Arrian]

I'll be sleeping, dreaming sweet dreams of victory.

-Arrian

[notyoueither]

Don't go ahead.

With the RNG being streaky the stated odds are not the real odds. This is not truely random.

We've already got less than we should expect. The only reason you proceed in this case is if the numbers are in your favour and a bad round doesn't change the end result, or you have a fondness for head hitting wall.

[notyoueither]

As for reasons not to throw the last skirm away...

Diplomacy. We've suffered a loss. Jon Miller can present this to Nana and ACen. The more we lose the better his case is.

Experience. Another CD promotion could cost another 1 or 2 units later to dig Done out of there. Sure, throw one away. How about when it ticks their odds defending against the next wave?

3 archers that would be completely free to do whatever the hell Vox want. Can you say popping up from an inconvenient direction, like beside our copper?

The third attack is very silly in my opinion, given the streaky RNG and less than even odds, and there are reasons not to do it.

[Hot Mustard]

Alas, the voice of reason was too late...

I'm doubtful you could have turned the hawks aside NYE - but take solace, if you can, in knowing you (we) were right.

The bummer with democracies is you have to follow the crowd, even when you suspect they make a wrong turn.