Attack on The Voice

[Hot Mustard]

Beckham has taken a chunk (2.6/3.0) out of Donegeal, but the stalwart city defender (2) archer remains.

How far do we go?

[Arrian]

Krill and I are for sending Zidane into the breach. Then we review again (unless of course we get very very lucky). Personally, even if Zidane dies and Maz's odds are ~40%, I'd press the attack. Only if Maz's odds are really bad (perhaps less than 1/3?) would I stop.

-Arrian

[Krill]

Well, by the time this turn is over I reckon I'll have increased my total post count by around 2% which isn't bad for 1 days spamming.

On a relevent note, this is what happens if we attack with Zidane:

1. If Zidane doesn't hit then we have 3.2% odds of winning with matterazzi. Disengage and stay forted on forest.
2. If Zidane hits once we have 10% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Dissengage and fort on forest.
3. If Zidane hits twice we have 40% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Need to discuss furher.
4. If Zidane hits 3 times we have 80% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Attack with Matterazzi and if we lose ***** because Vox just got extremely lucky. If we win then I'm raising a toast to the RNG God tonight.

[Arrian]

Sounds like a plan to me. The 40% one is really the only scenario that needs much discussion. The rest are pretty clear.

-Arrian

[Harovan]

to Krills plan.

On the 40% case I'd still be in favor of continuing. Stop only on 10%. First, we should be in for some luck after having a not so lucky first roll, and second, ONE skirmisher doesn't make that much of a difference in choking, and for observation purposes we can get another one in position within a few turns.

[Hot Mustard]

Mapping Krill's bullets to voting options:

Originally posted by Krill

1. If Zidane doesn't hit then we have 3.2% odds of winning with matterazzi. Disengage and stay forted on forest.
2. If Zidane hits once we have 10% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Dissengage and fort on forest.

Attack again, stop if we only get to 2.2 (10%)

Originally posted by Krill

1. If Zidane hits twice we have 40% chance of winning with Matterazzi. Need to discuss furher.

Attack again, stop if we only get to 1.8 (40%)

Originally posted by Krill

1. If Zidane hits 3 times we have 80% chance of winning with Matterazzi.

Attack with all three, regardless

[Arrian]

Ahhh! The suspense is KILLING me.

-Arrian

[Krill]

I can't eat when stressed, and I really ought to eat something today...

[Harovan]

Work is killing me. Thank God I'll go home in 10 minutes.

[Hot Mustard]

Me too.

We had 15 responses to the GS Pulse thread, and the PM's last night drew in some other rare sightings, so I think it's reasonable to wait for at least 10 votes or so on this - roughly 1/3 team representation. I am holding off voting right away, myself.

[Krill]

Damn, I voted for attack with all 3 regardless, and that is wrong; my views are expressed exactly in the above options I posted, that we should only attack with the last one if we have the 80% chance, though I'm willing to attack if we have 40% odds if enough people want to do that.

[Arrian]

Screwing up the poll



-Arrian

[Harovan]

Sooooo

I'm at home now, and I have over a pound (480g) M&Ms to appease the RNG gods. Judging by this, Vox should be toast.

[Arrian]

At the very least, you'll have a nice dessert.

-Arrian

[Solomwi]

The potential payoff is good enough to support a continued charge at 33% odds. I voted for the 1.8 option, but would be good with either 1.8 or 2.2 option.