KGB: opponents initial choices discussion

[Aginor]

Originally posted by DeepO
Catching up...
GPs will be one of the most important parts of this game, and I intend to spend quite some time analyzing them. Early on, these will be big jumps, especially so if you're able to trade for a few of the lowest techs. Blocking such trade, or at least trying to deminish the returns from such a trade will be an important diplo minigame.

Concur. Getting more mileage out of our techs in trade than the other side does is probably the best source of pure resource advantage over the long haul. If we can shaft our primary rivals by getting to things first, that adds to the resource advantage.

I don't quite follow, are you saying that we are sure to get distracted into other paths, and thus won't be the best warmongers?

I don't think we will need to be such a warmonging civ to be successful, however it is a possibility. If so, being SPI should make us more focused, not less... or at least that's my view. Do you foresee certain risks/problems we should look out for?

What I mean here is that Spiritual actually makes us a stronger pure warmonger (ease of trait-swapping back and forth for unit builds, etc.) than Liz or Qin. Does this mean we need to play as a warmonger? Not necessarily. What it does mean is that we should, all other things equal, have better self-defense and aggression capabilities than Liz or Qin will have.

By contrast, they will have available two builder traits, as well as the key builder civics. We will have one builder trait and access to the key builder civics. Thus, Qin and Liz are more focused on achieving the specific goals of the builder than we are, but this does not come without cost for them. They have to be more predictable than we do in order to maximize their civics.

Yeah, but the problem is we need 2 techs to get to our skirmishers. It's not exactly cheap either, and we could very well end up without archery until much later in the game. The Horde knows that too...

Which is why we will want to determine just how paranoid we wish to be. My best guess is that we will choose to found a religion, then rush to Skirmishers and concede the Oracle.

I'm not the biggest fan of CRE either... but that's because I'm used to play at levels where going to war without running the slider happens very rarely. In fact, running the slider from very early on might be your best option. All cities expand borders without obelisks or CRE with the slider.

I find that Drama is a surprisingly high tech priority. This combined with the ultra-cheap culture boost from Theatres always makes it a compelling research option when it first becomes available.

I'd welcome a religious focus in the game, but the problem lays in the second path... either we go for early religion, or we go for early skirmishers. Doing both at the same time? Risky... we might end up losing both paths. We don't need skirmishers before others get archers, though, in case we don't intend to go choke someone. (and choking would mean no early religion, as you can't outbuild and outresearch another civ, you need to choose between the two)

See above...if we go for Skirmishers right away, we're committing to a rush IMO. Which has its advantages and disadvantages. Key amongst the advantages is that no one, and I mean NO ONE would expect a Skirmisher rush given this group's reputation.

If we're planning on running builder, religion followed by Skirmishers seems to be the way to go. Our key builder advantage against this field would be either Buddhism or Hinduism.

I disagree about the lack of upgrade possibilities for axemen: it depends on which path you choose. If going straigth for Steel, you will be amazed how fast one can reach grenadiers, and get city attackers from axemen upgrades. I do it all the time, and I like it better than the HA to Cav upgrade.

I've done this a number of times with Swords/Axes, and it is extremely useful in generating citybusters. However, I have a very strong preference for Cavalry due to the speed with which the blitz hits, and typically use the citybusters in a support role (for when I see particularly nasty defenses in a city) rather than using them as the primary assault option.

Pyramids would change everything. Mind you, 50 turns for a GE is a long time to wait, if you can do a GS in 17. Pyramids come relatively late: waiting 50 turns for a GP from Stonehenge is a lot less costly: you'll have to hurry to get a lib or temple up before the GP completes on its own. While waiting for a GE from the pyramids, we'll most likely have a lib already.

For academies: we'll have to weigh our options, and an early academy can be very important (especially when going for GLib). A well picked tech advance might net us more, though.

DeepO

I'm thinking more along the lines of putting the Pyramids in a secondary (read: chop) city and running the usual GS out of the capital. That way, the city with the Pyramids can generate some background GP points early on and we can power it up with some engineers when it comes time to start thinking about cranking out a key Wonder.

I figure that a Great Engineer would be a second or third GP build.

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Aginor
I'm thinking more along the lines of putting the Pyramids in a secondary (read: chop) city and running the usual GS out of the capital. That way, the city with the Pyramids can generate some background GP points early on and we can power it up with some engineers when it comes time to start thinking about cranking out a key Wonder.

I figure that a Great Engineer would be a second or third GP build.

If we get that lucky, by all means. It would require an early settler, though, which in turn requires early defense. We will normally get behind in tech if going for the pyramids in city #2.

Stonehenge or Oracle in city #2 is more likely, and a GP is always nice to get.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

I doubt we'll get the Pyramids. We'll need at least stone and we'd be compromising our other options (religion, oracle, skirms). We could consider the Hanging Gardens for a GE. It's cheap, not wildly popular, and we can SPI into slavery to poprush if happies are low. The downside is that too early, and there'll be too few cities to benefit from the growth. Too late and too many GPP are needed. So either build it early just for an early GE and long-term health, or build it in the capital or wonder-city whenever and have a chance of a GE popping somewhere along the line.

Another thing - avoiding Masonary allows the alternative CS slingshot - with a prophet.

[Arrian]

Another thing - avoiding Masonary allows the alternative CS slingshot - with a prophet.

We should certainly keep that in mind, if:

1) We do not have access to stone or marble; and/or
2) We have no desire to take a shot at the Great Lighthouse

-Arrian

[alva]

I'm not that big a fan of the pyramids (anymore), each time I go for, I cripple myself to much on other fronts. I do alot better whenever I leave it to someone else (SP only btw).

As for being SPI, imho, it's the best threat, it's flexibility cannot be underestimated, again imho.
PHI is great too BUT you really need to know what you are doing and how you can can get the most out of it.


Why are is everyone so keen on CRE, it's bad (and easy) but it certainly would be my prefered choice.

[Aginor]

The only problem with the alternate Slingshot is that we aren't PHI, so it'll take quite some time to bring to fruition. Obviously an early Oracle or Stonehenge would take some of the edge off this (20 turns instead of 10, as opposed to the no-Wonder 34 turns instead of 17).

I have to agree that getting the Pyramids is improbable, particularly given the probability of having to defend against a rush. However, I can't help thinking that if there's a way to get a GE, it can make a huge difference to our game in the end. Perhaps the Hanging Gardens will make a strong solution after the early game is settled and we are less concerned about our borders.

I suppose that ultimately the key question is this: who are our immediate neighbors, and what are they planning? It's all well and good to talk about rushing to the Oracle for GP and denying it to others, yet if we run that route purely and delay Archery we will almost certainly be devoured by any attempt to rush us.

It's worth noting that Hunting and Archery together are cheaper than BW, and that Skirmishers are stronger in city defense than Axemen, just as good as Axemen at choking on a hill tile, cost quite a bit less, and come online instantly after research is completed. If we're concerned about our neighbors, this is the way to go. If we're trying to chop or poprush a Wonder, BW may be a better option.

So then, here's the first big question that we face when deciding on our first tech move: Who will rush, and who won't? Will we be the target of a rush, or are we likely to be a low priority? Who is likely to target *us* with a rush, and who is likely to target someone else?

The second question that follows from the 'we're gonna get rushed' conclusion is this: Can we sneak an early religion out if we do get rushed, and do we want to shoot for Buddhism or Hinduism? The third question is this: BW or Archery?

As I think more about this, if we decide paranoia is the way to go...Hunting almost *has* to be the first tech, does it not? If there's anything that will deter an attack against us more than us sending out Scouts and positioning them to spot a rush attempt, I can't think of it. It sends a very strong signal that we intend to get Skirmishers, and one would have to be a fool to rush when the other side is sure to see it coming. If anything, the Scouts would signal that WE intend to rush, which is most likely to lead to the opponent either sending out his own Scouts or staying close to home.

Whether we then proceed up to Archery is a separate decision, of course...the important thing is that anyone we find with a Scout before they find us is likely to *believe* we have Archery regardless.

The cost of that move, of course, is that we may well lose one or both early religions if we don't go straight up the Mysticism side of the tree. It also likely means forfeiting the Oracle. Is this worth the cost?

Now, if we decide we are safe from the get-go, the choice becomes (to my mind) somewhat less clear. Almost certainly we would want to grab Buddhism, unless there was some extremely compelling reason from a resource standpoint not to (for instance: we want to power a gold mine in the starting radius, we have key food specials nearby, and we feel we can easily catch Judaism or Confucianism with the turbocharged research). After that, though, the decision tree becomes a bit murky. I suspect that it would be highly dependent on what specials we have, and whether or not we decide to make a push for the Oracle.

[NicodaMax]

I beleive that our first tech choice is somewhat resource-dependant, in that If we get unlucky and have only 9 beakers out of commerce (8+1) we wouldn't stand a very good chance of beating another team in the Mystisism-Meditation race to budhism if they went for it (or to Hinduism for that matter). Question is, who will be going that way? Vox (FP) probably will (to get the oracle) But they're in no better position than we are. The most beakers we could get is 12 (13 for research - btw, anyone know where that extra beaker comes from?) if we're lucky and have a +1g resource in our city radius (same applyes for all Financial civs) On the other hand, Sanatarium/Elizabeth have fishing, which means if they get a coastal tile they get 12 beakers right away (13 for research - again, why the +1?) and would beat any other team to the early religion if they chose to go that way. So, we would need to check the demographics on that first turn to see how rivals' GNP are doing.

[Cort Haus]

So, we would need to check the demographics on that first turn to see how rivals' GNP are doing.

Presumably civs that have not played their turn yet will report default governer yields on the demographics, which may differ from the teams WF (workforce) setup.

[Cort Haus]

We won't know who or where the neighbours are on turn one, so we won't know who, if anyone, is likely to rush us. Seeing as we want this info asap Hunting looks like a very strong first choice, as it's cheaper than the BW that the Mining civs will surely go for, so still allows us a march on a religion if we have some local commerce. If we meet anyone nasty on the way to a religion we can switch to Archery, but as Aginor says, parading Scouts to our rivals should send the message we want - beware our Skirms!

[NicodaMax]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
[q]
Presumably civs that have not played their turn yet will report default governer yields on the demographics, which may differ from the teams WF (workforce) setup.

Yeah, should've said "after turn 1". Btw, since its a PBEM game the order in which it's played is important, right?
For example, if two civs get to Med after the same amount of turns, whomever plays first would get to found budhism?
In that case, has the order of play been defined yet? Where are we, first, second to last?

[NicodaMax]

I'm a fool...
First of all, FP is in Sarantium, not Vox(oops!) and they have fishing, so if they have coastal tiles they will probably go for the early religion and oracle grab, not vox.
As for the rest, whether we go for the oracle (which would need BW for some chopping to rush it) or the safe way (Hunting-Archery for the scouts + skirmishers) is heavily resource dependant. I hope we get luck and they dont!

[alva]

For example, if two civs get to Med after the same amount of turns, whomever plays first would get to found budhism?

If I'm not mistaken, in MP, a dice is rolled to decide who get's the bonus ( goes for wonders etc. too).

[NicodaMax]

Originally posted by alva
If I'm not mistaken, in MP, a dice is rolled to decide who get's the bonus ( goes for wonders etc. too).

Oh yeah, you're right! But in MP that would be because of the simultaneous turn playing, and I wonder if the same applyes for PBEM. It would be the fair thing to have.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
We won't know who or where the neighbours are on turn one, so we won't know who, if anyone, is likely to rush us. Seeing as we want this info asap Hunting looks like a very strong first choice, as it's cheaper than the BW that the Mining civs will surely go for, so still allows us a march on a religion if we have some local commerce. If we meet anyone nasty on the way to a religion we can switch to Archery, but as Aginor says, parading Scouts to our rivals should send the message we want - beware our Skirms!

So, if we're boiling it down to either Hunting or shooting for Mysticism and then up to a religion, the question becomes this:

How quickly do we need those Scouts online? The opportunity cost of Hunting first is probably having two civs run the straight Mysticism/religion path and beat us to it. That would leave us scrambling for an early Oracle for a quick Code of Laws, attempting to win a race to Monotheism, or trying to generate a Theology prophet. Given that we're Spiritual and Temples are our reduced-cost building, it's hard to conscience not having a religion. Particularly given that having one of the earliest ones can give us some significant informational advantages (since those are the easy ones to spread).

On the flip side - if we try to grab Hunting as the third tech, we risk getting blindsided. That threatens our very survival...but we may also start alone, or next to a comparative pacifist team, and the time spent on Hunting is a waste.

So - religion first is a gamble, and Hunting is the safe play. How do we want to structure our opening, then? Do we want to take some risks in the hopes of having them pay off dramatically down the road (anticipating that our neighbors may be doing the same)? Alternately, do we chart a safe course that ensures that we're still at the poker table in the later stages of the game, but is unlikely to make us the chip leader and consequently leaves us playing catch-up?

While I typically am a gambler in SP (another game is a few mouse-clicks away if I do something really dumb), PBEM MP is another beast, and my thinking is that we would be wise to signal the presence of Skirmishers (even if we're just bluffing) in order to gain some time for peaceful development. Also, we should pay particular care to whether or not our adversaries sneak a peek at one of our cities, as if one passes by and see a stack of Warriors, we'll need to do something about our vulnerability ASAP.

[Arrian]

I think we have three avenues to ponder:

1) Bronze working
2) Hunting -> Archery
3) Mysticism -> religion

And a fourth possibility is not out of the question (fishing, if we pop up on the coast w/a seafood resource).

I am still trying to wrap my mind around how useful religion is really going to be in this game (especially given its on a relatively low level - Prince, so happiness isn't a huge problem).

I'm currently leaning toward supporting BW being our first research, but hey, I change my mind all the time...

-Arrian