Project Taj Mahal?

[sooooo]

Righto, that was what I wanted to check.

From a "where to build Taj" perspective, I can't disagree with your conclusion that the Northern spot is best. I strongly disagree that Thebes is the Northern city though.

Assuming no jiggery-pokery to confuse us: The Warning, Thebes, and Memphis are PAL's first three cities. Looking at the location image you sent, I cannot believe that a team which has played as effective a land-grab as PAL has in the rest of the game would have settled their first three cities with as much overlap (and as few resources) as they would have done if Thebes was in the Northern spot.

I find it a far more likely scenario that Thebes was settled at the Southern spot to secure Copper (we suspect they had early BW, right?) and borders with Banana, then later (after the Banana boat had passed) the Northern city was founded on the coast as a filler with Great Lighthouse trade routes.

Mostly harmless actually thinks Thebes is 1S of the sign on the map, on the plains hill. That city does get the copper.

[regoarrarr]

Going back through the C&D archives, here is what I have found

T33 - PALs 2nd city founded (Thebes)

T50: The Warning popped 3rd ring gaining only 5 land tiles! This could of course mean that there is already some overlap with their 2nd and/or 3rd city.

T53: Get awarded 13 points for owning the 9 tiles in Thebes' 1st ring (landlocked city). I assumed that 9 tiles equal 12 points, but maybe the factor changes with time? (we certainly only got 12 points for 9 tiles, same goes for Imperio)

T61: Memphis and Thebes grow to size 3.
T69: Thebes grows to size 4.

T71: PAL's land tiles are listed at 39 (though I'm not sure if that is actual land tiles or tiles owned for 20 turns). Elephantine (5th city founded on T70)

[Dreylin]

Mostly harmless actually thinks Thebes is 1S of the sign on the map, on the plains hill. That city does get the copper.

True, but is also has a fair amount of overlap with The Warning, and a lot of overlap with Memphis. Why settle Thebes on that hill if you're going to go and settle the Memphis spot next?

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, I have looked at the border expansions from PAL again.
I can now confirm that the Thebes is indeed on that hill.

Here it is:
T0: The Warning founded. Grabbing 6tile (red)
T5: The Warning 2nd ring. 7 tiles (green)
T33: Thebes founded. Grabbing 9 tiles with 1ring (blue). This already rules out the former northern spot on the coast (1N of the "Thebes?" sign) as this would have given them only 8 new tiles, with the tile marked "1" already taken by The Warning's 2nd ring.
So it's either the northern city on the hill or the southern spot.
T47: Memphis founded. Grabbing 5 tiles (yellow). Irrelevant for this argument.
T50: The Warning 3rd ring. Grabbing 5 new tiles.(cyan). Now, IF Thebes was not on that hill, but on the southern city site, The Warnings 3rd ring would gain 6 new tiles. The tile marked "2" however is already taken by Thebes. Therefore only 5 new tiles.

Makes sense?


@ Dreylin:
It is a very nice city spot. Three food tiles, grabbing copper and only 3tiles overlap with the capital. On top of a hill for defense and an ideal chokepoint. You could argue that Memphis as their third city was not optimal placed given all the land they have. But then again, they might not have scouted that much and they were weak on the military side, so best not spread to wide.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

Good work, mh!

I wonder if Memphis was intended to go further south (fish, banana, grass hill) but was blocked by Banana's city, and therefore went to the 'runner-up' spot.

So it looks like we're depending on PAL not thinking they're in a tight race, and whipping later, or not at all

[mostly-harmless]

No, Banana's cities were still 10 tiles away or so, when they settled Memphis. The thing is there is no other spot to settle if you want to grab that corner. It is really just the spot Memphis is on or the hill to its north. All other places nearby are not allowed.

mh

[MyOtherCar]

Very thorough analysis MH. Good work!

[regoarrarr]

Does PAL have line of sight into Bluebell Woods err Fields, where they could see the espionage costs to sabotage production?

[sooooo]

Well their borders are pretty far away from Bluebell Woods.

J/K. Probably Imperio don't even know about Bluebell Woods yet unless they used a spy.

[regoarrarr]

I guess my question was more generic, about espionage. So, it's correct that they can only see espionage costs for citeis that they've seen, i.e. not Bluebell

[Dreylin]

@m_h: I bow to your skills

[T-hawk]

Right. PAL can't see Bluebell in the same way that we can't see Thebes. The only way would be if Imperio or Templars found it with a spy (within the last 20 turns since the city was founded) and then traded maps to PAL. I doubt that's happened, though it's not impossible.

Getting enough EP for Investigate City does reveal hidden cities, but PAL's nowhere near that.

Besides, even if PAL does see it, they'd see ~350 hammers going up by ~10/turn. The last 300 hammers of the wonder will all be chopped simultaneously.

And just looking at the map, the "Thebes?" sign must be correct. No way would any competent player settle 1N of that square and miss both cows and copper.

[sooooo]

OK, so T152 PAL did 2 1-pop whips and ended the turn. Those whips are not the Taj. If they don't do a 5-pop whip later in the turn then at worst we have a coin-flip chance of the Taj on T154.

[mostly-harmless]

Quick question:
Are we still on track to get the Taj on T154?
Only I don't see any chopping in progress to finish next turn or are those forests pre-chopped?

mh

[sooooo]

Yes, the remaining chops only have 1 turn left. They'll finish chopping next turn (T153) and we're due to finish the wonder and hopefully start a golden age on T154.