Tech Discussion

[Dreylin]

Don't think Templars have got to Theo yet.

We're also down Compass to Imperio & Banana (both self-researched)

[Sullla]

Did we ever get Machinery? It would be great to get a screen of the tech trades screen to see what we have over/under our opponents .

Darrell

Ask and ye shall receive. The * indicates a self-researched tech.

Templars
Techs they have we lack: none
Techs we have they lack: Civil Service
Currently researching: Theology, likely to have it in a couple of turns

Imperio
Techs they have we lack: Feudalism*, Compass*, Construction* (for 1 more turn)
Techs we have they lack: Machinery
Currently researching: unknown

PAL
Techs they have we lack: Philosophy*, Construction (for 1 more turn)
Techs we have they lack: none
Currently researching: unknown

Banana
Techs they have we lack: Compass*
Techs we have they lack: Horseback Riding*, Currency
Currently researching: Calendar (we think, anyway)

Rabbits
Techs they have we lack:
Techs we have they lack: Aesthetics*, Literature*, Mathematics*, Alphabet, Code of Laws, Civil Service, Monotheism*, Monarchy*, Metal Casting, Machinery, Horseback Riding*
Currently researching: who cares?

Based on this, it sounds like we should be looking into some variation on the following deals:

- HBR for Compass (Banana, beaker deficit to be made up with...)
- Engineering for Feudalism (Banana, second half of the above trade)
- Construction for Calendar (Banana; we have already pretty much agreed on this)
- Engineering for Philosophy with PAL, possibly with them throwing something cheap in later (?)
- Let Templars and Imperio rot, unless they come up with something better.

If we were to push these trades through, the obvious tech path would be:

Construction (1t) -> Engineering (10t estimate) -> Paper (5t estimate) -> Education (Great Scientist lightbulb, which is due in 13t) -> Liberalism -> Nationalism

While Banana picks up Feudalism and some other good stuff for us. We would then research Guilds -> Gunpowder afterwards, while preparing for an Oromo draft strategy. At least, that's the way I see it.

Thoughts?

[Dreylin]

Well if we can set ourselves up as partners with Banana; what if we encouraged them to go through Guilds, traded them Education and while we researched Liberalism, got them to go for Gunpowder (with the double pre-req).

We do have to nurture Bananaboy and make sure he stays on our side ... I think his natural relationship should be with Imperio for size / positioning reasons (Imp could support in a Pal war, while we are too distant to offer much help), however I think Imperio's focused lack of diplomacy will screw up any chance of that happening.

[regoarrarr]

I'm still very wary of getting Liberalism in a race vs. PAL, especially since they already have Philosophy. I can't see them being willing to trade Philosophy unless they know (either from us making a deal with them or them being so far ahead of us) that we will not beat them there.

I'm certainly willing to take a shot at it, and we will know what they're researching in a few turns (via Banana), but if they're going Paper->Edu, then we need to focus elsewhere.

When should we send out feelers to Banana about some of these proposed trades?

[sunrise089]

Are our beakers per turn projected to be lower than PAL's? Can't we just beat them to Lib if necessary?

[regoarrarr]

Possibly. But we are talking about going for Engineering and while we will get a partial bulb of Education, they very well also might get another scientist to bulb part of Education. It's certainly not a sure thing. Can the C&D estimate their bpt?

Also, for the record, neither of us can bulb Liberalism (I believe due to having researched Machinery and unlocking Compass)

[Sullla]

PAL took 10 turns to research Philosophy, which costs ~1100 beakers. (Not logged into the game, don't have the exact amount in front of me.) They had Code of Laws as the only optional pre-req, so a 20% bonus on their beakers. Based on that math, they're getting roughly:

~92 base beakers/turn -> 110 beakers/turn with bonus, across 10 turns = 1100 beakers

Obviously PAL is doing a mixture of binary science just like we are, making it tough to evaluate their real tech rate. However, that should stand up as a general average rate. For comparison, we are looking at something like:

200 beakers/turn @ 100% science, and 1t at 0% for 2t at 100% science
Average = 133 base beakers/turn -> 160 beakers/turn with same 20% pre-req bonus

So we are noticeably above PAL in research now, although this is perhaps unfair because it's using an average dating back to 10t again for them, and they've likely improved their research rate since then. Still, it's not a stretch to say that we're researching faster.

In a Liberalism race, it would come down to two things:

- Does PAL immediately go for Liberalism right now?
- Do that have another Great Scientist to lightbulb Education?

We'll know the answer to the first from Banana very soon, and we can watch the news ticker to keep an eye on the other. If the answer to either is "no", we at least have a chance.

[sooooo]

Oh yeah, I took a screenie of the tech tree for those lurkers who perhaps don't read every post.

[regoarrarr]

I was thinking that they had bulbed Philosophy but you're right. We do know that they have 1 scientist that they used on an Academy in the capital. Do we know at all when that was built? If so, their next scientist is likely to come 34 turns afterwards (unless it's in another city), if they are running 2 scientists for the whole time.

I'd have to think that the answer to question 2 would certainly lean more yes than no. I mean that is the "standard" move, right?

Raw beaker costs are 800 for Philo, 1800 for Edu and 1400 for Lib.

If we assume Sullla's 1100 Philo cost is accurate (probably close enough), then we have to research 5500 beakers in the time they research 4400. But we'll have a scientist for 1650 beakers, and let's assume that they do too. If they don't then we clearly can beat them to it if we want (at some opportunity cost on our side)

So that's 3850 to 2750. Meaning we would need to research 40% faster. Which is about what the above numbers (160/110) give, if we give PAL a bit of a boost for updating their economy over the past 10 turns.

And we should know this turn what they are researching next. Perhaps our email feint of Engineering will lull them into security to dilly dally :-D

[Swiss Pauli]

- HBR for Compass (Banana, beaker deficit to be made up with...)
- Engineering for Feudalism (Banana, second half of the above trade)
- Construction for Calendar (Banana; we have already pretty much agreed on this)
- Engineering for Philosophy with PAL, possibly with them throwing something cheap in later (?)
- Let Templars and Imperio rot, unless they come up with something better.

If we were to push these trades through, the obvious tech path would be:

Construction (1t) -> Engineering (10t estimate) -> Paper (5t estimate) -> Education (Great Scientist lightbulb, which is due in 13t) -> Liberalism -> Nationalism

While Banana picks up Feudalism and some other good stuff for us. We would then research Guilds -> Gunpowder afterwards, while preparing for an Oromo draft strategy. At least, that's the way I see it.

Thoughts?

I don't see it panning out so smoothly. As we heard from Banana, PAL is going directly to Paper, so it's questionable whether PAL with trade us a Liberalism pre-req, knowing that we have Great Library (for GS generation) and a much improved tech rate.

We should also remember that PAL has been on a war footing for ages, so they will start to improve their tech rate once they switch focus to infra rather than units. Our own tech pace can only be maintained if Imperio doesn't declare war, which (as I type) looks unlikely.

I see more value in telling PAL we won't compete with them for Liberalism (in order to get Philo) then going directly to Nationalism. I'd expect us to get a very good price for Nationalism from Banana and PAL, and this route would allows us to make the stronger long-term move of Academy in Pink (rather tha n bulbing Edu).

It will also allow us to go Guilds (which we may be able to get from Banana for Nationalism) then Gunpowder sooner than the Liberalism path, so that we can get the military edge on our initial target, and fight an easier war.

[darrelljs]

Construction (1t) -> Engineering (10t estimate) -> Paper (5t estimate) -> Education (Great Scientist lightbulb, which is due in 13t) -> Liberalism -> Nationalism

Like Swiss says, I doubt we will be able to pry Philosophy out of PAL...it is a major leg up on the Liberalism race. Burning two GS's might be necessary to win that plum, maybe it is better to collude rather than compete with PAL? That is, PAL researches Paper then starts building up gold reserves, we research Education boosted by a lightbulb burn, then they polish off Liberalism with their cash reserves. Liberalism + Paper + Philosophy exactly equals Education + Engineering, and the free tech is equally shared.

It seems like the upside is high with greatly reduced risk for missing Liberalism. The only downside of course, is that PAL is already pretty dangerous.

Darrell

P.S. If we collude to that extent on techs, might as well try and get them to sign a defensive pact with us...soon!

[regoarrarr]

I would support darrell's plan, but I am not sure why PAL would go for it, unless they don't think that they can beat us to Lib (or if it's in doubt).

But if we were able to spin it as "Why bother racing each other, let's just work together and dominate our continents, etc." they might go for it

[Swiss Pauli]

No, no response to the tech trade email, and I wouldn't expect an offer of Philo, given it's a racing certainty they're going for Liberalism.

[Zeviz]

I also like Darrel's plan. Not sure if PAL will agree, but it's worth a shot.

[Swiss Pauli]

Aside from doubts over whether PAL would be inclined to accept such a deal, the free tech can't be shared equally, as only the discoverer of Liberalism would be able to trade the free tech to other teams. Whilst we could try to use this as a bargaining chip with PAL, it seems a long shot that they'd accept, even with this 'sweetener'.