Turnplayer Thread #2.

[Sullla]

Actually... I looked at the numbers again, and they're not adding up correctly. Right now, 100% research indicates that we can make our way to Iron Working in just 7 turns, and clearly 7 * 28 = 196, which does NOT provide the 203 remaining on the tech. So... something is missing here.

However, *IF* one of the three civs we know has Iron Working, we get a slight modifier increasing the beaker output (the base figure gets multiplied by 1.05) and the numbers *DO* add up again. Just to provide the calculation again, using 100% research as an example:

- Take listed beaker ouput and add one (23 + 1 = 24)
- Multiply by the modifier for known number of civs and round down: FLOOR (24 * 1.05) = FLOOR (25.2) = 25
- Multiply by the pre-requisites modifier and round down: FLOOR (25 * 1.2) = FLOOR (30) = 30

Now if we are actually getting 30 beakers/turn, then in seven turns we produce 210 beakers and the math once again adds up correctly. Since Imperio gained 10,000 soldier points last turn, I think it's a safe conclusion that Imperio researched Iron Working last turn and we are now getting a slight tech discount from it. Thus the new numbers are:

100% science: -7gpt @ 23 beakers/turn (TRUE: 30/turn)
90% science: -5gpt @ 20/turn (TRUE: 26/turn)
80% science: -3gpt @ 18/turn (TRUE: 22/turn)
70% science: -1gpt @ 16/turn (TRUE: 20/turn)
60% science: +2gpt @ 13/turn (TRUE: 16/turn)
50% science: +4gpt @ 11/turn (TRUE: 14/turn)
0% science: +16gpt @ 0/turn (TRUE: 1/turn)

Note that we only gain the added benefit at 100% and 90% science - not enough beakers to make a difference if we're getting less than 20/turn. This prejudices the comparison even more highly in favor of running binary science...

In any case, got some new C&D info out of this for you, mostly_harmless.

[sooooo]

I think we should mine the copper. In theory we could build axes in 6 turns since it will take 6 turns to uncover the coastal trade route from Cape Town to the rest of our empire. Airstrip 1 could finish the barracks sooner than the advertised 8 turns if it works the mine instead of the (being built) cottage after growth in 4 turns.

What do we have in mind for the worker who arrives from pink dot in 2 turns? Actually, what do we have in mind for pink dot? It looks like a hybrid city to me. Maybe he could cottage the tile 1NE of the city.

[regoarrarr]

Crunched the numbers, and 1 turn of 0% followed by 7 turns of 100% is the best way

It will get us 211 beakers and leave us with 6 gold in the bank.

In just doing some of the comparisons it really is amazing how much binary is better.

For example, 9 and a half turns of 80% science (closer to our true rate which is 22 bpt and -3 gpt) get us approximately the same value (209 beakers and 10.5 gold and yes I know we can't run half turns).

But it takes a whole turn and a half longer!

Researching at our true sustainable rate (about 66%) gives us the same approximately 9.5 turns to get the same 178 beakers+gold

[Sullla]

Originally posted by sooooo
What do we have in mind for the worker who arrives from pink dot in 2 turns? Actually, what do we have in mind for pink dot? It looks like a hybrid city to me. Maybe he could cottage the tile 1NE of the city.

Excellent question. Let's discuss how we want to manage Pink - we have a full turn to do so before it finishes its worker. Here's the city:



I'll give you my thoughts first, then we can try to figure out if there's a better approach. I envisioned Pink as one of our military pumps, along with Cape Town. Lots of shields, little emphasis on beaker production. (In contrast, Airstrip One and China Beach are clearly going to emphasize commerce.) What I was going to do with the worker was first build a road on the brown line above, which will open up a trade route to Templars. I expect we'll be wanting to Open Borders with them as soon as one of us gets Writing tech. Then secondly, I was going to have the worker mine (and road) the circled hill tile, as the only one that gets the river commerce boost. Later, the worker would mine one of the remaining grassland hills, so that we could work the grassland cattle and three grassland hills at size 4 (for a total of 13 shields/turn!)

Essentially, I expect Pink to be building most of our military for the immediate future. We can also produce most of our future settlers and workers here; at size 4, we can get 15 food + shields at Pink for 4-turn workers and 7-turn settlers. (It would have been much more efficient not to whip the Cape Town settler at Pink, except that we would have lost the location had we not done so!) Or at least that's the way I see it.

Now of course we could go the cottage route here as well, and the land is certainly fertile enough. But I've generally had more success when I've set aside a couple of cities and used them as shield producers, than just going with the "there's grassland river tiles here, so we must build cottages" logic.

[Zeviz]

I agree about making Pink Dot the military center.

My only question about above plan is: Do we want to Open Borders with Templars, revealing to them that our only source of Copper is on Imperio border? If we don't want to open borders, not roading the forest would give us an excuse that there is no trade connection anyway.

[ruff_hi]

I'm for roading the forest, hill and mining hill. Re open borders - it will not matter when we reveal iron at our capital.

[mostly-harmless]

In general I agree with Sullla's plan.
However, I have a slightly different approach to the Open Border / Trade issue.
Keep in mind, that we are very friendly with PAL, which are likely to grant us open borders without a fuzz. Also their huge number of cities will give each of our cities an intercontinental trade route, which is more valuable than what we would get from Imperio & Templars. If we can get our scout over to PALs land and can map out all their cities (not sure if we have to actually see their cities for trade ???) we would gain a lot more commerce.
Open Borders with Templars would just allow our closest neighbour to map out our land and we would currently gain only two foreign trade routes (+1gpt for each compared to national trade iirc).

So I would do open borders with PAL first to see if the trade comes in without seeing their cities.
If we actually have to wait for our scout to map their lands before we get the trade routes, we have to see how long that would take and if the +2gpt (maybe +3 by then of they get a 3rd city) we would get from Templars is more worth than waiting. We would certainly look weird if we close borders soon.

One point in favor of open borders with Templars is the chance to get religion spread. I am not sure if that actually required open borders or just a potential connection.

This said, I am in favour for roading that brown line, but keep borders close with Templars for a while to see what happens.

EDIT: Just checked the map again. If Imperio settles on the coast north east of Cape Town our trade with PAL will have to go through either Templars or Imperios Open Borders.

mh

[sooooo]

OK, I am in agreement that Pink Dot is a military pump right now, while it is stuck at size 5. But later on I envisage it getting some commerce for us too, what with its dyes, grass river tiles and potential to build a wonder like the great library. The road on that tile to get a trade route with templars is a good idea.

[regoarrarr]

Are we sure that it's 3 turns left on a pasture (And 4 to a mine)?

Based on http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=144029

it looks like 5 turns for a mine or pasture at normal speed?

[regoarrarr]

Okay after running the numbers I have changed my opinion for O'Brien's actions. Originally I was for mining the copper, but now (as long as we don't feel we'll need any advanced military units in the next 20 turns or so), I am for pasturing the horses

Exec. Summary:
Pasturing the horses, cows and then mining the copper is the way to go, primarily for 3 reasons.

1. We've already spent one turn pasturing the horses, so completing that gets us 1 more turn of a "good" tile
2. Working the grass horses instead of a plains copper lets us grow to Size 2 faster
3. Pasturized horses appear to get 1 commerce per turn.

=======
Boring nerdy number crunching (skip if desired)
======

Assumptions:
Center is 2/1/1
Horses are 2/1/0
Pasturized horses are 2/4/1
Improved copper is 1/5/0
Improved plains cows are 3/3/0
5 turns to pasture or mine
5 turns to expand borders

TURNS Copper first and then Cow
food hammers
5 center, horses 10 10
5 copper 5 30
3 cow 9 12
1 cow, copper 4 9
14 turns, size 2, 6 food in the bank, 61 hammers, galley after turn 13


Horses first and then cow
turns tiles food hammers
4 center, horses 8 8
6 center, improved horses 12 30 6 commerce
1 center, cow 3 4
3 center, cow, horses 9 24 3 commerce
14 turns, size 2, 10 food in the bank, 66 hammers, galley after turn 14


Horses first and then copper
turns tiles food hammers
4 center, horses 8 8
5 center, improved horses 10 25 5 commerce
4 center, copper 4 28
1 center, copper, cows 2 9
14 turns, size 2, 2 food in the bank, 70 hammers, galley after turn 13

=================
So for the delay of one turn in getting a galley out, we gain 4 food, 5 hammers and 9 commerce over doing the copper first, or 8 food and 4 commerce over going horses than copper (at a loss of 4 hammers).

In talking with Ruff, I decided to not run the numbers on roading the horses first since I didn't think that the ability to produce chariots does much against a holkan army, though I REALLY think Imperio would be CRAZY to try and attack us here. I'd rather just build another archer or two.

So my recommendations would be:
4 turns pasture horses
1 turn moving to cows (getting our free turn in of mining the copper, natch)
5 turns pasturing the cows
4 more turns mining the copper
2 turns roading the copper
4 turns roading the cows and horses in some order (because of the road on the copper, no turns lost either way)

We have the ability to build axes 16 turns from now.

So, this is optimal from a pure f/h/c maximization, so we still need to answer the question if we are comfortable not being able to build anything but archers for the next 16 turns.

[ruff_hi]

interesting stuff - I did discuss with rego but didn't check his numbers - all number mistakes are his .

things to keep in mind:
- fog in north being boat busted - how long will that take
- chariots on the scene are better than a stronger, slower unit a few tiles away
- chariots make good scouts - maybe send chariot to other continent with name like 'Tinker' to stress the touring quality instead of the killing quality, this would leave sharon free to shadow settler(s)

[Sullla]

Great math regoarrarr! I'm fully convinced that we get the best tile yields from going pasture on horses -> pasture on cows -> mine on copper. Only question is: do we want to wait 16 turns to have copper on hand?

Here's my take: let's build the pasture first, while researching up to Iron Working (7 more turns). If we have no iron anywhere, then go for the copper immediately afterwards. If we do have iron (there are excellent odds on us having some at the capital), then we can follow the maximum tile yield formula and delay the copper for last. Sound like a plan?

Two other quick points:

- Jennifer, our warrior in the area, will shadow the current Imperio holkar/settler pair. This unit is clearly not a threat to them, and is already right next to the holkan. That leaves Sharon free to investigate other things (right now, I'm moving here to the center on the map, to keep an eye on the Templars. She can move back in plenty of time to board our galley if necessary.)

- In the CivFanatics Demogame, teams agreed to Open Borders with one another without allowing military units to scout out territory. In other words, OB purely for the economic benefits. We can and should feel free to contact teams about the same kind of deals.

[sunrise089]

-Pink Dot as military works - even better that our military cities are also our border cities.

-I still think hooking copper is best. I know it's risk averse, but we've planted aggressively on both Templars and Imperio, and I'd feel better with some teeth to our military.

-Chariot on the other continent is totally unnecessary when a scout will due.

-I will not be surprised at all if one of our presumed allies refuses to open borders with us. PAL for example hoping to block tech trades with their neighbors still feels like a possibility to me.

[regoarrarr]

Right - we do need to figure out how comfortable we feel in our military.

But we're still going to need to make a choice before we get Iron Working, as that will be 8 turns away (we still have 1 more turn at 0%), and we'll need another job for OBrien in 4 turns.

[mostly-harmless]

- I don't think Holkan and Settler actually teamed up this turn.
So right now we would have to scout both south and north next turn to catch up with the settler.

- Chariot instead of Scout would have the benefit of being able to stand up against barbs. Can be decided later I think.

- We are closely monitoring soldier points from our opponents and have a fairly good idea about their military. In addition we are keeping ahead in soldier points. And don't forget we have the NAP in place. Let's start with regoarrarr's plan stage 1 (horses) and see what the situtaion is after we see Iron. The moment we spot an military build up we can reconsider.

mh