What If?

[justjake73]

There are numerous books, both fictional and by established historians, that have gone over this subject repeatedly. I have What If? and Rising Sun Victorious in my collection.

What if the Mongol khan had not died, forcing the horde to turn back from invading Europe?

What if Hitler had gone through Cyprus and invaded Palestine to attack the British 8th Army and Cairo from the rear?

What if the Japanese had destroyed the drydock facilities at Pearl, forcing the US to base it's early attacks from the West Coast?

[bobbo008]

"I reckon that Napolean would have done, by military means, what The EU has finally achieved through ecnomic means-that is, the 'unification', so to speak, of Western Europe!!!"

i'm sorry, i just have to reply to this. I think unification through military force has never worked, and i dont think it would have worked then. eventually, had he not invaded Russia, most countries, conquered ones included would have rallied together to destroy him anyways. The reason the EU is successful in unification is because they all chose to come together for security and economic reasons. All of Western Europe united under FRENCH rule? i'm sure that would have lasted 1000 years as well

[vmxa1]

Originally posted by justjake73

What if the Japanese had destroyed the drydock facilities at Pearl, forcing the US to base it's early attacks from the West Coast?

Not much difference in the out come, only the timing. Too much industry and resources to be over come by Japan.

[Turrosh Mak]

Seelowe successful? Not likely

Even if the Luftwaffe had gained air superiority over southern England in September 40, the Kriegsmarine didn't have the strength to protect the supply lines across the channel. Planes back then were effective while the sun was shining, but heavy clouds and night rendered them practically useless.

For Germany to successfully invade England in 1940, several things would have needed to be different:

1. No invasion of Norway - the Kriegsmarine suffered serious losses in this campaign - 10 destroyers, 2 light cruisers, and 1 heavy cruiser sunk, as well as serious damage to both Scharnhorst and Gneisenau. The morale effect of the campaign on both sides in the subsequent French campaign cannot be known, but I personally don't think "No Norway" would change the outcome in France.

2. Earlier Planning - Hitler's Directive No. 16, giving political direction for Operation Seelowe was issued on July 16, 1940. However, Raeder had broached the subject of an invasion of Britain with Hitler on May 21, but the panzers had just reached the English Channel on this day and the future was still unclear. During a second meeting between Raeder and Hitler on June 4 (the day Dunkirk fell) the subject WASN'T EVEN MENTIONED! Six to eight solid weeks of planning and logistics were wasted due to this lack of vision.

3. No Halt Order - On May 24, von Rundstedt commanding Army group A gave an order (approved by Hitler and unquestioned by Guderian) to halt the Panzer divisions a few miles short of the Dunkirk beaches. The tanks needed maintenance and the crews were tired (they had been the spearhead of the invasion and had been going 24/7 for 2 solid weeks by this time). The advance was resumed on May 27, but by then the defenders had organized their defenses and were able to hold off the Germans long enough for 338,226 allied soldiers to escape. Most of the 120,000 French troops lifted in Operation Dynamo were quickly sent back to France, but that still leaves over 14 divisions worth of British Regulars in England who would otherwise have been behind German wire.

4. Better Luftwaffe Execution - The Luftwaffe wasted the entire month of July bombing shipping in the English Channel. Systematic attacks on Fighter command didn't begin until August 12 (Adlertag was originally scheduled for August 9th, but bad weather forced the delay).

The radar sites on the coast of England were not considered high priority targets by the Germans, but in fact were the information cornerstone of the entire defensive effort of the RAF. There were few spare sets available. If the radar installations had been knocked out, Fighter command would have had no early warning system and would have to rely on coastwatchers for enemy contacts. Fighter Command would have had to post more "quick reaction" fighters in the air leading to more fatigue, wasted petrol, and higher casualties.

Finally, due to excessive casualties and his own faulty intelligence, Goering lost focus of the goal of destroying Fighter command and began to switch his targets to communications and terror bombing on September 7th. Attacks on Fighter commands sector stations from Aug 24 to Sep 7 had resulted in a 7:5 loss ratio, better than anything the Germans had achieved since the start of the Battle of Britain, a loss ratio that would have eventually resulted in German air supremacy.

5. Shipping requirements and supply- The final plan for Seelowe had the initial assault being carried out by the lead regiments of 3 infantry divisions by sea and 2 airborne divisions supported by 250 tanks (mostly amphibious Pzkfw 2 and some submersible Pzkfw 3 and 4). Practically no artillery or naval bombardment would be available for the first wave. Follow up convoys would increase strength to 9 infantry and 2 airborne divisions over the course of ELEVEN DAYS. Unlike the allies at Normandy who built 2 artifical harbors for their operation, the Germans were relying on capturing a port quickly in order to ensure adequate supply. The harbors in the area of the assault (Dover and Folkestone) would have been able to handle 2/5ths of the estimated 3300 tonnes of supplies needed for the 11 divisions if in perfect working order. Everything else would have to come across the beach.

The number of ships and barges needed for the invasion force and its subsequent supply would have denuded the Rhine, leading to disruption of civilain supply as winter approached. The bombing of the French channel ports by Bomber Command starting September 5th only worsened the picture.

6. Political Will - For lack of a better way to describe it, there was never enthusiasm in the upper ranks of either the Nazi government nor the german military for an invasion of Britain. The politicians were unwilling to gamble all the political capital they had gained on a long shot invasion of Britain.

With proper focus and sustained effort, an invasion of England in Spring/Summer of 41 would probably have had the best chance for success, but by this time Hitler's gaze had turned east and the oportunity was lost to him forever.

Bibliography
Operation Sea Lion by Peter Fleming - Chapter 15, 16, 17, and 19
Their Finest Hour by John M. Astell (Game Designer's Workshop) - historical options, designer's notes, and order of battle

[Turrosh Mak]

Originally posted by Turk Man
What if Turkey Enter WW2 on the Germany side?

If Turkey joined the Axis, it would have probably been in the Summer or Fall of 41. Germany would have increased its odds of beating Russia and overrunning the entire middle east. Operation Orient would probably have brought a pro Axis government to India to complement similar governments in Iran and Iraq.

The division of the spoils would have been ugly though. Having the Turks on the Germans side would have caused alot of Arab support to pull away (not like that would have been a great loss, it really didn't gain the Germans much), especially if the Turks pushed their claims for Syrian (Alexandretta)and Iraqi (Mosul) land. I can see Turkish claims for Soviet Armenia, Azerbadjan, and possibly Georgia after a successful war as well. With these aquisitions, Turkey would have one of the top 10 oil reserves in the world.

Considering what the Turks had to gain, its really surprising they DIDN'T join the Axis.

[Turrosh Mak]

The War of 1808?

Unknown to most Americans, the War of 1812 was nearly a disaster for the USA. One battle turned the tide, a fight between 2 flotillas of equal strength at Lake Champlain on September 11,1814. American victory on the lake threatened the supply line of a British invasion force of 14,000 peninsular veterans at Plattsburg, and caused them to retreat to Canada even though the USA only had 1500 regulars and 3000 militia between Plattsburg and New York City to oppose them. This failed invasion (and the prospect of another year of war) induced the British to sign the Peace of Ghent. Andrew Jackson's victory at New Orleans occurred after the peace had been signed but reinforced in the American mind that the war was a victory.

America went to war against England in 1812 a divided nation. The Southerners and Westerners were all for it, blaming England for supplying guns to the Shawnees under Tecumseh in Indiana as well as blaming England's ally Spain for giving similar aid and refuge to the Creeks and Seminoles in Alabama and Florida. The New Englanders however were against the war, knowing that their shipping and trade would suffer.

Due to this division and incredible incompetence, the USA squandered its best chance to annex Canada and evict Britian from the continent. Militia troops refused to cross the Canadian border, and stood idly by while regular troops were defeated and forced to surrender. Frontier outposts in Michigan and Illinois surrendered without a fight. 1813 was just a bleak for the USA, with some gains made in upper Canada across the border from Detroit, and more incompetence on the Niagra front. 1814 brought British regulars in strength fresh from the Peninsula. Only by shear luck did the USA survive the final phase, and bring Britain to sign a peace recognizing the status quo ante.

Now that you know what happened, here is what might have been. In 1808, an incident at sea nearly touched off the war that finally occurred in 1812. The USS Chesapeake was attacked by the HMS Leopard off Norfolk, killing several sailors. The British then impressed 4 of the survivors, saying they were deserters. The entire USA was ready to go to war, but President Jefferson instead chose to embargo trade with Britain, which really hurt New England and killed their desire for war (but effected the West and South not a bit).

What if Jefferson had gone to war in 1808? With Britain tied up in the Iberian Peninsula would they have been stretched too thin to prevent the annexation of Canada? Would Napoleon have won in Spain with the British diverted?

[vmxa1]

I do not see how Turkey would have had an impact at all. First off Stalin had massive T36's that he was holding back and when he let them fly the tide was turned in Russia for good.
Russia was too large to be over run by the Germans, they did not have man power or material to get the job done.
They caught Satlin by surprise and it still did not allow them to win. Not to mention we were feeding Russia with supplies and would have stepped it up if need be.
Russia was about three time the size of Germany and could lose troops forever and not run out.
Turkey was and is not even a blip on the world stage.
If they had come in Axis side, they would have fallen under Soviet rule most likely. Satlin would have demand his pound of flesh. It would have gone very harsh on Turkey to declare war on Russia.

[Turrosh Mak]

Originally posted by vmxa1
I do not see how Turkey would have had an impact at all.

Lets look at the situation in the world on July 1, 1941.

In Russia, Army Group Center had just closed its pincers on Minsk cutting off another pocket of Soviet troops around Gorodische. Army Group North has captured Riga, and Army Group South is across the Dvina river driving on Kiev.

In North Africa 2 weeks ago, Britain's second attack against the Halfaya pass (Operation Battleaxe) on the Egyptain border has ended in failure. The British garrison in Tobruk begins its 4th month under siege (and won't be relieved until mid-November)

In Syria, the British have almost completed the conquest of this former Vichy colony, which they invaded on June 8 but have been bombing since May 15 due to Vichy allowing Germany to supply a Luftwaffe unit in Iraq through its territory.

In Iraq, British control has been re-established for less than a month. A nationalist revolt which began on April 1 has resisted the British from April 19 to June 1.

The pro-axis Shah of Iran has not yet been deposed by a joint Anglo-Russian force. That will happen August 25th.

There are approximately 4 allied divisions close to the Turkish Border. 7th Australian Division, the Free French Division, 4th Indian Brigade and 20th Indian Brigade are in Syria. The 21st and 29th Indian Brigades are in Iraq, as well as an Arab Legion from Transjordan.

Everywhere Germany has fought Britian, they have won. Russia appears to be falling, and that perception will only get stronger and stronger as July turns into August. There are strategic resources just across your borders, weakly held by a nation that helped lay your country low 20 years ago. You can provide a land route for the best military in the world to help you get those resources. It's time for revenge and profit. It might have happened...

[vmxa1]

Yes, I am aware of the history of WWII. Does not change a thing I said. I knew that before you posted it.

Think Rope A Dope. Stalin did not mind a few million citizens dying. He strung the trap when it suited him.
If you point is more loses whould have occurred, no doubt. Nothing could have held back the massive man power of the Soviets and the industry of the USA.

[bobbo008]

"Nothing could have held back the massive man power of the Soviets"

since this is the "what if" thread, i'd like to toss in a theory. in many areas that the Germans took over from the Soviets, they were welcomed as liberators. These new liberated peoples could be conscripted, and at least be cannon fodder.

[The_Aussie_Lurker]

Yep, the Nazi's were viewed as 'liberators', right up until they began treating the local people even WORSE than the Soviets-a fact which made holding on to these territories even HARDER!!!

Yours,
Aussie_Lurker

[bobbo008]

yes, i think most of us are aware of how Germans treated Slavs at the time. although much still cannot be said of how the Soviets treated them before and after the war.

somehow Stalin managed to starve 8 million (if my sources are correct) Ukrainians who live in a country of grain fields, more or less...

[johncmcleod]

How about at Trenton. The Americans were losing the Revolutionary War. Morale among the troops was bad. Their tour of duty would be up at the end of December. Most of them wanted to quit very badly. George Washington needed a major victory to make the troops decide to stay and keep fighting. So they decided to make a surprise attack on a fort defended by Hessians. Their was a party and the commander was drunk. A soldier gave him an urgent message telling the commander that the troops were crossing the Delaware River. The Americans caught the Hessians by surprise and won the battle. This greatly improved morale and most of the soldiers decided to keep on fighting. The letter was found in the commander's pocket after he was dead, unopened. If he had seen the letter he would have alerted his troops and set up defenses. The Hessians probably would have beaten the Americans badly. The American soldiers would probably decide not to keep on fighting. Britain would win the revolutionary war. Eventually America would become independent, but when would it be and how would tge country be different? How would the rest of the world be different? America gaining independence inspired a lot of revolutions around the world.

[MrDictator]

how about what if the British had joined forces with nazi Germany in attacking soviet Russia, as Hitler had intended? Russia would surely have been crushed, so there would be no cold war, and maybe Britain would still have control of its empire

[Turrosh Mak]

Originally posted by johncmcleod
How about at Trenton. The Americans were losing the Revolutionary War ... Eventually America would become independent, but when would it be and how would tge (sic) country be different? How would the rest of the world be different? America gaining independence inspired a lot of revolutions around the world.

This is a good question. You have to remember that Washington's contingent at Valley Forge was the Continental Army. Militia from Maine to Georgia would still be active. In fact, the American victory at Saratoga over Burgoyne in 1777 was won almost exclusively by militia whereas Washington's Continentals lost Philadelphia to Howe. Saratoga is what brought France into the war.

But what if the Loyalists and British won? In all likelihood the 13 colonies would be restricted to the area east of the Appalachians. The land west to the Mississippi would have been a crown colony. Slavery was outlawed in the British Empire in 1834. Dominion status would have probably occured in the 1870s as with the rest of the Empire.

The real question is how much of today's America would be part of the Dominion? Louisianna would most likely have been occupied during the Napoleanic wars but would Mexico rule from the Sabine to the Pacific?

As far as our successful revolution sparking popular revolt across the globe, I have my doubts. The time was right for a change. And wil Napoleon running roughshod through Europe, I believe Spain's empire would have collapsed as it did in our world.