Foreign Affairs - Volume 2

[Beta]

Thanks Witt - I suspect GS won't think so.

Now - what do we do about this Lux thing? I will try and organize the various options and thoughts, and posty them here shortly. We may need a series of polls.

[Beta]

Originally posted by BetaHound
....
First, let me state that there are 3 options here, besides the IronWorking-Mysticism deal we already have. They are:

1) We give you Alphabet for 15 gold plus 1 gold per turn, and that's it.

2) We give you Alphabet for 15 gold plus 1 gold per turn, and Writing for something else - we don't know what yet. This will open up more trade options. You contact GS and we work out a tech researching plan, in which GS and Lux trade techs with Vox acting as Middle Men. This is quite complicated, and needs the co-operation of GS.

3) We give you Alphabet for the possession of a small city near GS for 3 turns max. We will give it back to you afterwards, after we have made contact with GS in this way. We will then have GS as a trade partner, and will make sure that you will not fall behind GS too much in techs (we might donate techs we got from GS to you).


As I said, we discussed all plans. Let me just say first that we want to keep you as friends and strategic trading partners. It will give us an advantage over our close neighbours.

My people feel that we have come a great way towards you by giving you Iron Working in advance, while you will not have Mysticism for us for over 20 turns. This is a calculated risk, but you have profited a great deal from this. Also, we traded Pottery to you for a small amount.

Considering this, we cannot carry out plan 1. The gold is just not enough to compensate for our tech research.

We had a lot of discussion on plan 2. The problem is here that to open up trade options, we must get you both Alphabet and Writing. This is quite a lot considering the fact that you will not have any gold for it if you continue to research Mysticism, which is our priority. Also, we need to get GS's co-operation AND we must get them to research the exact techs we want. My people feel that this is just one bridge too far.

I have been congratulated on the ingenuity of plan 3. It is a move that no other civ will expect. GS will rub their eyes because they think that we are far away on our own island. They will know that Vox and Lux put a great deal of trust into each other and will think twice before considering attacking you. You will also have one free tech which is a big bonus considering your slow research speed. We will make sure that tech we trade with GS will come your way, too, because it is in our interest that you also reseach tech that is useful to us. Every tech we can get from your island is
an advantage over the other civs on our island! We will need to work out details - which city to switch, for how long and if units will be involved.

I hope you can see our reasoning here. Let me know what your people think.

Yours,

BigFurryMonster
Minister of Trade and Creative Plans of Lux Invicta
__________________
Better watch out, or I'll purr in your general direction.

Thought I should bring this forward to begin discussion. They are digging their heels in somewhat, and clearly want option 3. Just some thoughts to get the discussion going.

- if we do it, what guarantee do we have that we get the city back.
- if they make contact and establish a firm relationship with GS, what's to say we aren't cut out of the dealing shortly thereafter, and what's to say we aren't facing a two front war when galleys come around
- see my counter-proposal above - where they would give us a city to contact Neu D.
- we could PM Neu D and see what's up. We can't do deals, but we might get another side to the story
- if we were to trade a city - I would want it south of the mountains, which would probably require prior approval of GS
-I very much prefer option 2. We can make it work with out writing. We simply act as the conduit for the trades
- I like this because it protects our trade interests, and gives us a degree of control over GS
- too bad they backed out of option 1.

We are going to need to determine something soon, if we want to tell GS we already have Alphabet. Or - we do the trade with GS, and say thanks but no thanks to Lux. eeeeek. Not sure I like that one.

And how do folks feel about working towards a three-team alliance to take on the rest of the world? If we think it is an OK idea, then Lux's option 2 or 3 would be a good first step.

Or how about we play along - until we can make contact with Neu D. And make friends with them as insurance.

I have to admit - it bothers me that Lux is so keen to contact GS, especially knowing the chilly foreign relations climate that exists bewteen the two of us. I'm afraid we are just a stepping stone to the two of them getting together, and then wack! Call me paranoid, but it is interesting that there were no thoughts forthcoming from them on how we could contact Neu D. I am looking forward to their response to my inquiry/suggestion on that.

[Wittlich]

If they want option 3....I say fine BUT we don't just give them a city. We should trade a city to each other. IMO, it's only fair.

if they are unwilling to do that, then I think that option 2 is really our only choice in the matter.

[Wittlich]

If Lux wants to open-up talks directly with GS, then I say that we should be able to open-up talks with ND at the same time!

[Dis]

I do support a 3 way alliance. In fact that may be enough to please GS, and would make us a strong force to contend with.

But it is a tricky issue setting something like that up. There are many ways one nation could be upset. Esp. if one nation suspects the other nation has a trade advantage. I do believe it can be done, but it will take time.

The letter you wrote looks real good. Hope you sent it out.

As for option #3. I need more clarification. In order to make contact with GS they will have to use that city to produce a unit such as a warrior. That may take up to 5 turns possibly? And of course they may not give it back. But I suspect they would, as the city would not be that useful to them. Of course they could give it to GS!! . That is something to think about.

In any case I don't think the risk is worth it just for alphabet.

In fact the more I think about it the more I worry they will give the city to GS. Maybe I'm just being paranoid

A city for city trade should alleviate any concern they will do something like that. but if they did that they really aren't gaining anything. and wouldn't trade us alphabet for that.

We should just see about upping the gold amount I guess. I'm not really sure what they want.

[Beta]

Originally posted by Dissident

Of course they could give it to GS!! . That is something to think about.

In any case I don't think the risk is worth it just for alphabet.

In fact the more I think about it the more I worry they will give the city to GS. Maybe I'm just being paranoid

.

Hadn't thought of that possibility. And yes - now that you have raised it, I agree, it is not worth the risk. Who knows, GS and Lux may be discussing all this via PM, and maybe we are being set up.

Ya, I think we need to work on the trade deal. And us as the conduit for awhile.

The longer term three way alliance is not a bad idea - I just get the feeling that we will be the little - and therefore, expendable, sibling in that family.

And I'm thinking that I should chat with Neu D and see what is going on with them. We may need a friend in a huryy someday. I had a pretty good relation with Arosch and Borc on the early days. Just hasn't been much reason to chat with them lately. Won't give away much - but will see what I can find out.

I think our eventual and long-term friends will need to be civs from other continents. I think local competition for land and resources will be the downfall of local alliances.

[Beta]

Response from Gathering Storm. And ooops, we missed something. As we are the only civ they are in contact with, they will have noticed the cost of iron working drop when we had acquired it. Also - their explanations for their research rate makes sense. It also explains why ours are slower. (city size, groth rates, and improved tiles)

Anyways - here is the response (it is long) then we should all post some thoughts on what to do given Lux's and GS's response.

Trade situation, and your concerns (Camel #1 of 3)
[To BetaHound, copies to Eli, Dissident, and Jon Miller]

Greetings BetaHound and Vox Controli,

On the subject of cows and bulls (and what comes from them), our analysts find it almost impossible to believe that you do not already have Iron Working. According to their analysis, Iron Working should cost us twice as much to research as Warrior Code if no nation we know has either. Similarly, Writing should require one third more research than Iron Working. And there are similar relationships regarding the costs of all other technologies we could currently research. Since you are our only in-game contact at present (your suspicions to the contrary notwithstanding), our analysts say that only your having researched a technology should create a deviation between anticipated and actual research costs.

With every other technology we can consider researching, costs follow a consistent pattern. But the cost of Iron Working is lower than it ought to be if you have not yet researched it. The real clincher is that at the rate we can research Iron Working, we ought to be able to research Writing one turn faster than we actually can – unless the contact situation has made Iron Working cheaper. If you are telling the truth, there is some great mystery here by which the assumptions our analysts base their work on is invalid. But I hope you can see why we would be extremely skeptical regarding your claims of not yet having discovered Iron Working. Either you are lying to us, or our understanding of the world we live in is seriously flawed. (By the way, the original analysis was conducted in 2230 BC, but I have since confirmed the figures myself.)

Regarding our own research rate, if you have been watching the Roster of Great Cities, I’m sure you have seen that Eye of the Storm has been consistently at least size 3 and often size 4 on the International City Size Scale for quite some time. Eye of the Storm has not worked land producing less than two commerce in centuries, and Hurricane has sometimes had access to two commerce and sometimes just one depending on priorities of the moment. Add to that the commerce from the city sites themselves (with capitals inherently being especially wealthy) and you can see for yourself that our research rate, although quite rapid, is not impossible. (And I should note that at Sir Ralph’s insistence, we had already started researching Alphabet based on your conditional acceptance of our trade proposal before you sent your final acceptance, leaving us a turn ahead of where we would have been had more cautious policies prevailed.)

(continued next camel)
Trade deal, and your concerns (camel #2 of 3)
(Continued from previous camel)

Next, in regard to your claim that Bronze Working was worth more to us than The Wheel was to you, the fact that we would have researched Bronze and then Iron ourselves had you not agreed to the deal renders such short-term comparisons irrelevant. On that path, we would have had Bronze Working in plenty of time to build any spearmen we might want, and would be getting Iron Working through our own research about the same time we will get it from you assuming you keep your word. So the true benefits of the exchange are in terms of long-term prosperity, not short-term military advantage, and on that basis, the agreement was in your favor. We, unlike you, sacrificed a turn’s research (and that at our higher research rate) to make the deal work. Further, based on what you have indicated about your own research rate, a trade at equal value saves you significantly more research time than it does us compared with each doing the research ourselves. And that is not even considering the risk on our side and (I assume) hope on yours that you might be able to exchange The Wheel and/or Alphabet for gold and/or additional knowledge. (We never requested a patent on either of those technologies and, in fact, clearly acknowledged your prospects for trading them when we proposed the trade agreement. The patent concept is strictly in connection with trades involving Writing and beyond.)

If you need further assurance regarding the fact that you are the only nation we currently have in-game contact with, I could e-mail one or more of your people a copy of the “Histograph” portion of our bureaucrats’ “form F8” summarizing relative “scores”. [I’d need an e-mail address or addresses, though, since PMs can’t handle graphics.] That would be sufficient to show both that only our two civilizations appear on that form and that the date on the form is current. By the way, in case you are wondering about recent appearances on similar forms from your own bureaucrats, we recently founded a third city. (Alas, shortly after sending out our settler, our glorious capital was struck by disease, but it has since recovered.)

Before I leave the issue of trade deals, there is one final point I would like to make that is causing us a certain amount of concern. When we first approached you to propose the two-stage deal, we conveyed (or at least I certainly attempted to convey) our assumption that you had already researched Iron Working as your first priority. You said nothing to indicate that our assumption was incorrect, and thereby left us to assume that the exchange of Alphabet for Iron Working could be completed just as soon as we completed our research into Alphabet. Even giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming you are now telling the truth that you had not already researched Iron Working, you left us to labor under a false assumption. And while I see the military sense in not revealing your lack of a key military technology, the situation thus created is not ideal for building trust.

(continued on next camel)

Trade deal, and your concerns (Camel #3 of 3)
(Continued from Camel #2)

At this point, the situation for us has become extremely awkward. When you not only failed to offer Iron Working as requested even though we assumed you already had it, but also failed to provide any other meaningful response to our message indicating that we were ready for the exchange, that left us wondering about the possibility, however remote, that you might renege on your promise. That concern caused us to suspend our research while waiting for the deal to be completed, since if we do not get Iron Working from you, we need to start researching it ourselves immediately (in spite of how horribly distasteful such a duplication of effort is). But the strain of the delay grows greater every turn, and we really need for you to accept our offer of Alphabet and return your offer of Iron Working immediately so that we can get on with our Writing research (which, we hope, you can also benefit from through some sort of future exchange). Unless the deal goes through (or, at the very least, we get an extremely solid explanation for why it does not go through), our government will face intense pressure to write you off as oath breakers and start our own research into Iron Working, in which case the consequences for the relationship between our nations would be less than pleasant. (I am not attempting to threaten here; merely to point out the powerful forces involved in such matters.)

In regard to issues of settling and borders, on a continent as small as this one, it seems prudent to make sure you recognize the importance of making the greatest possible use of the space available. Our city planners are working on a principle they have developed known as the “size 12 principle.” Specifically, cities should be positioned to use all of our land, as much coast as is practical, and most of the sea within our cities’ borders at size 12. That does not allow much room for additional growth should our scientists someday come up with a way to grow cities beyond what a river or lake permits, but we feel that maximizing our gold for science in the meantime is far more important. (And cities built on the “size 12 principle” don’t generally need to start working much if any coast or seas until beyond size 6, which most cities will not be able to exceed until the “aqueducts” certain of our visionaries contemplate can be built.) We strongly recommend that you follow a similar pattern, both to maximize your ability to generate wealth and to avoid possible tensions between our peoples over accusations of “squandering” useful land.

As for whether the northern end of the Spinebreaker Mountains (or Sierra Centralis as you call them) would be a good border, some of your earlier words had given us hope that ours was not the only direction you could possibly expand in. Regarding North Estonia, you said, “And lastly, it connects to another landmass to the east.” If you have another land mass in another direction, can you not do some of your expanding in that direction? We have no other lands within sight that we can expand to, and we had really hoped to expand at least a little north of the mountains. Also, if you have a lake in North Estonia, North Estonia itself ought to be able to support four cities with proper planning. (Eventually, it can regardless of whether you have a lake or not, but we could understand your not wanting to make cities that would have a hard time growing any time in the near future your top priority.)

Sincerely,

The People of Gathering Storm
Nathan Barclay, Chief Economist

[Beta]

We are now going to have to come clean to a certain extent with GS.

I say we tell them our contact is not via land, but over a straight of water. That will address the concerns over our expansion in another direction.

I suggest we tell them we have received techs from the other neighbour. I also suggest we tell them we did receive iron working a number of turns ago, and that we were nervous to let GS know. And we can say why - chariots can't make it through the jungle/mountain barrier - swordsmen can.

We can tell them we are still nervous about providing it to GS. We can go on about who is on their team, and how we feel threatened, etc etc.

The other possibility if we want to make a dramatic change in our relationship with GS, is that you can fire me from the FA job. Someone else takes the job, and jon can pm them about my nervousness, and paranoia, and not writing precisely what the team wanted. You can make apologies for the last letter, etc.etc. "And now we can enter into a new era of international relations!"

But - do we trade iron working? That is the question. We can say we have a better deal on the table for Alphabet right now. Which would tick them off a bit more. Or we can say we want to go through with the deal, but we do have a better offer, and that if they could thrown in say, 5 gold, and 1 gold per turn to assist us with our obviously deficient research rate, we could go along with it. Or we simply don't trade it. they will have it eventually - but some 15-25 turns out.

If they have just recently built a third city, it means their fourth shouldn't be ready for a few turns, which should give us a samll breather to get one of the southern cities in, even when they know where the iron deposits are. If we don't trade, we will clearly have time to get our cities in, but they will be royally p***ed.

This whole discussion hinges somewhat on our longer term plans. Who do we want to be allies with. And how do we want to expand. We are going to need friends. That is for sure. And I am still secure in saying that GS will not be in a position to take us out anywhere in the near future. Our geography and Immortals will ensure our continued existence. My concern is when galleys come into play - then Lux and GS can do us in. I'm almost thinking that the Apolytonian establishment may try and stick together - or do you think I am off-base on that sentiment.

Anyways - that's why I'm thinking some limited contact with Neu D may be added insurance against Lux, and GS.

[Jon Miller]

tell them that we have iron working (by trading for it)

and that what we sent is what we would have had (that you made a mistake in that)

and that we have a better deal for alphabet from our other trading partners (which hopefully we do?)

Jon Miller

[Kuciwalker]

I'm not even going to say anything. This is all over my head

[Dis]

I did not realize that only nations they knew affected research rate. Is this true? I thought all the civs in the game affected it. well they got us on that one

[Wittlich]

I have to concur with Jon, come clean and tell them that we received iron working through a trade.

[Dis]

I hate to renege on this deal. That will create long term enemies.

I don't know if it is worth it to renege on this deal. If they are going to research Iron working anyways (of course they are just saing this, but I believe it- they need it for defense against our immortals), it might be more beneficial for us to trade Iron Working for Alphabet and scrap that deal with Lux- which I don't like anyways.

I am having second thoughts about cancelling that trade. If we hadn't agreed to it in the first place. I just don't want to be known as nation that is dishonest.

If we could stall them a few more turns, then go ahead with the Iron Working/Alphabet trade I would be happy.

If we need be we can say that we agreed to Lux that we not trade Iron Working to anyone for a certain amount of time in exchange for them giving it to us outright with no other swap.

In any case if we could delay our correspondance to them until tonight when I get back from work that would be great.

[Jon Miller]

I would suggest writing this


I think that Beta expressed our concerns, but did so improperly. Looking over his messages, he told you where we would have been if we had not traded for Iron Working (With our close neighbors to the north). I must admit that we are somewhat worried about your nation, appearing to research so much faster than us and to be better located also. In any case, we just got Iron Working recently (which means that we could do our deal), but would rather get alphabet much much more cheaply from another source. Is there anyway we could get writing from you for ironworking? It is what the other civ wants right now, actually, but we cannot provide them with it in any timely matter (alphabet is so common for them that they are willing to give it away for cheap).



Jon Miller

[Jon Miller]

I sent it

with an added statement that we could give them ironworking now for writing later

Jon Miller