Diplomacy: Analysis and Strategy

[Aidun]

No news about the border proposal?

Aidun

[History Guy]

Well, no, sadly. I have sent my messages, but have heard nothing as of yet. However, I am sure I shall receive something soon enough.

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger

[jdjdjd]

Just to point out - Lux's army is smaller than ours and therefore smaller than ND. We have a military of 9 - 6 warriors and 3 spearmen ( I am counting from the last map - I can't get PTW to work on this old beast of a machine). Lux claimed to ET ada & Togas, to have 6 garrisoned in the twin city. They have two warriors scouting ND. That should be it then - to be smaller than us they can't be bigger then 8 troops. They only have two cities. Allegedly they will double there cities soon-possibly then within ten turns, then they will need more time get out horses. Their gold savings are useless in rushing horses, until they get Monarchy. Unless they risk it and release the alleged garrison....I dont think its logical for them to attack ND in the near future (20 turns or less), without us & GoW in tow.

ND may attack them - we know they have a larger force so at least ten - and three cities. They have potential. for an early invasion.

GoW has three cities to defend with nine troops. Only two cities are producing. They could help either side to a small degree.

Regardless it would have to be a short war or a war that drags on with many minor skirmishes - and I doubt it would be decisive - at least for the immediate future (25 turns or less).

Now we consider that we have about 5 turns left on the alliance with Lux with an option to renew- (we need to decide on that too). This Alliance includes a NA pact. If ND invades, we have no choice but to side with Lux if the Alliance is on. If Lux invades we can not attack Lux. Do we have a NA pact with ND? That would complicate matters - Which agreement takes precedent if both N-A pact with ND and Alliance with Lux is triggered? Now, if GoW gets involved we could not fight them - we have a NA pact. Sticky.


I think, for us, if we are drawn in it is a better move attacking ND than Lux as there would be no immediate benefit. For siding with Lux - it will prevent ND from invading too heaviily into Lux. We could then settle wherever we want and void any border agreement with ND. we could, also consider attacking one of their cities. We can also blame our involvement on being anti-aggression and the Alliance with Lux.

However, we should avoid involvement at all at this early stage unless Lux Alliance is triggered. We should continue our REX - Military build up. GoW joining should perhaps make us rethink our involvement, as we want to keep balance on the continent - but at this point Gow could only serve a minor role.

We want the non-aggressor to win, and a defensive win at most, no cities to change hands just depletion of military strength for all sides.

[Aidun]

I propose to renew the Non-Agression pact, but NO the mutual part. Lux is too proud of itself and is acting foolishly. I don't like us to be triggered into a war by undiplomatic handlings of Lux. Being dependat on another nation is good as long as the two think the same about the international matters. Lux and we are now clearly disagreeing on the war with ND, so we musn't let us be dependant on them.

About ND: ND has showed themselves as rather peaceful people that have a likewise domestic and foreign policy as we have, so they are a better ally.
ND has been friendly and I consider them trustworthy.

Aidun

[adaMada]

In his analysis of the situation above, jdjdjd makes an excellent point (as always ). Though Lux is the weakest foce on the continent, that doesn't mean that they can't mount a solid defense (they're only a unit or two behind us), and ND may not be able to put too much force into an attack -- after all, they'll want to leave something defending each city (unless they WANT us/GoW to suddenly side with Lux and rip them). On the flip side, Lux's money is worthless for everything except bribing GoW (and us). As such, any war that occurs now will probably not have much effect except that all the teams involved will be building units. It doesn't seem that we need to be overly worried about ND crushing Lux (or vice-versa), which would be the major potential downside of any war. As long as both teams don't gain anything through the war (which, admittedly, is a big if), it might actually be good for us -- we can be building extra settlers while they pump out warriors that will only be destroyed.

As for alliance with Lux: Obviously, jdjdjd is the supreme expert in that area. Personally, however, I'd suggest that we do not renew it, and instead seek a non-agression pact. For the reasons I've mentioned so many times, I'd like us to have our destiny in our own hands in regard to war (I think that getting dragged in would be the worst thing that could happen to us), and Lux hasn't exactly proven to be very trustworthy -- we've had more disagreements with GoW, but I think Lux has probably outrightly lied more often. That's just my personal opinion, however, and I'd love to hear what jdjdjd thinks, as he probably has the best view of the situation. One important consideration that I do have more thoughts about, however, is a conflict of nonagression pacts and alliances. Personally, I think that's the worst thing that can happen to us right now, especially if such a conflict ever involved GoW. We want to build up solid relationships with everyone, but if we were ever in that situation then we'd wind up ruining our reputation with at least one of the two teams involved. Very sticky, and we've no guarentee that Lux won't get into a war soon -- they haven't exactly proven to be ultra-predictable and solid. It's a serious issue, and one we should consider before we start making more Nonagression pacts/alliances That's my fault as much as anyone's -- I should've probably thought of this last night before agreeing that we should renew our nonagression pact with GoW . Anyway, just something we might want to consider before we move too much farther -- we wouldn't want to get bitten by something as silly as this.

-- adaMada

[E_T]

Arnelos had a chat with Lego today. One thing that he had found out was that Lego will be sending their first Ship to the NE. Is there anyway that we can convince them to move to the SE and contact us first?

E_T

[Togas]

What to do with Legoland?

I don't think they will have much trouble catching up with technology and once they catch up to us, they will be in position to surpass us.

I agree to the proposed trade of Mapmaking for IronWorking. We should try to lock them into it so that they don't offer it to GoW, if GoW meets them first.

I believe we need only get Legoland caught up in "a field" of research, so that they can research new and novel ideas. We need not get them totally caught up. We should always have something they want.

We may, in fact, have the old TEG traveling up the coast. They might spot a Legoland ship before it spots our city. This could help us speed up the contact.

I encourage active dialogue with Legoland. We must convince them that we are their brothers and allies, and that we two have more in common than any of the other civs. With their involvement in the Inter-Site game, we should begin to know a lot more about these mysterious island people. And we should continue to chat freely with them to discover more.

--Togas

[E_T]

Alliance with Lux almost expired

I did some checking today and I've found that we had the final agreement with our alliance with Lux in 2470BC. That was 18 turns ago (with the 1750BC save). It is due to be renegotiated in 2 turns (1700BC) or it expires.

With Lux doing what it's been doing up north, do we want to renegotiate this treaty?? Can we use it as leverage, to get Lux to back off??

I say we tell Lux to go and take care of their own business, but still try to prevent war. Without the Alliance, they just might back off some, because they will realize that they are not ina good position.

E_T

[jdjdjd]

adaMada - thanks for calling me an expert on Lux, but I unfortunately do not know if I really am. I do know several things, however -

1. I do not know all the lies Lux tells that people talk about
2. BFM has been cordial and in general has confirmed many things truthfully when questioned
3. they signed an alliance that we wrote without asking for any edits
4. in 2 or 3 cases we started negotiating deals with them only to have GoW undercut them and us back out - they did not respond by berating us or anything like that- they accepted and went on to the next negotiation
5. Lux agreed to not bother our territory if we did the same - they have lived by that agreement

Lux is as good a friend to us as are GoW and ND. so, again I say trust no one - that includes GoW and ND as well as Lux.

Note: In general, while Lux may irritate ND - any war will be caused by both their actions - not just Lux. Also, we continue to rely on many of the items of information about Lux and ND from GoW, who have many times lied to us. If ND is so trustworthy, and we should believe them, then remember they said they would try to pursuade GoW to side with them against Lux. Maybe they did and if so perhaps GOW is lying to us again in order to pull the wool over our eyes and to not know what is coming - i.e., ND & GoW invading Lux and splitting their two cities - one for ND and one for GoW.

One addl thought - while ther is little spoils of war for us in ND, Gow v. Lux war, there may be good spoils in a Lux, GoW v. ND war - so while I think we should stay out of the war - we may want to join the last option and take the ND capitol. Just a thought.

oh, and now include Lego to the not to trust list - if we are their great friend then why aren't they going SE like E_T wonders?

so endeth my ramblings....

[jdjdjd]

On Lego - I say do not afford them any special treatment until they earn it.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by E_T
Arnelos had a chat with Lego today. One thing that he had found out was that Lego will be sending their first Ship to the NE. Is there anyway that we can convince them to move to the SE and contact us first?

E_T

Perhaps they are going NE because that appears to be the closest coast - maybe we should send them a new minimap that shows our western coast, to help them find it?

[Arnelos]

Re: Alliance with Lux almost expired

Originally posted by E_T
I did some checking today and I've found that we had the final agreement with our alliance with Lux in 2470BC. That was 18 turns ago (with the 1750BC save). It is due to be renegotiated in 2 turns (1700BC) or it expires.

With Lux doing what it's been doing up north, do we want to renegotiate this treaty?? Can we use it as leverage, to get Lux to back off??

I say we tell Lux to go and take care of their own business, but still try to prevent war. Without the Alliance, they just might back off some, because they will realize that they are not ina good position.

E_T

Change the terms of the alliance so it is directed solely at Glory of War. That's my thought on the issue...

[adaMada]

From the main thread:

Originally posted by jdjdjd
Sorry - I have a feeling ND & GoW are discussing the destruction of Lux.

I'm afraid I'd have to agree with Ambassador jdjdjd. ND and GoW having a 'conversation' at this time isn't a good thing, espeically for Lux.

Items in this thread:

Originally posted by Arnelos
Change the terms of the alliance so it is directed solely at Glory of War. That's my thought on the issue...

Though I'm sure I'll be accused of favoritism and whatnot, I'd disagree with this. I'm no peacenick, but I don't want a war with anyone, and I especially don't want to be on the loosing side of a war. I fear that in a war where it's ND and GoW vs Lux and Us, ND and GoW would have an advantage, since Lux's money'd be worthless and they are generally weaker than the other teams. Now, I don't mean to say that we would loose such a war, but I continue to maintain that we should keep our destiny in our own hands. jdjdjd makes an interesting point in that we might be able to expliot the situation by taking ND's capital if the war plays out a given way, but I'd say that we should avoid signing any alliances that could drag us into any war. Better to have options than to not, and I don't see us benefiting from any of these alliance deals. Perhaps if one of hte involved parties were willing to pay, it might be a different story, but until then, I'll probably be against anything that's not an nonagression pact.

Originally posted by jdjdjd
adaMada - thanks for calling me an expert on Lux, but I unfortunately do not know if I really am. I do know several things, however -

1. I do not know all the lies Lux tells that people talk about
2. BFM has been cordial and in general has confirmed many things truthfully when questioned
3. they signed an alliance that we wrote without asking for any edits
4. in 2 or 3 cases we started negotiating deals with them only to have GoW undercut them and us back out - they did not respond by berating us or anything like that- they accepted and went on to the next negotiation
5. Lux agreed to not bother our territory if we did the same - they have lived by that agreement

Lux is as good a friend to us as are GoW and ND. so, again I say trust no one - that includes GoW and ND as well as Lux.

In my opinion (these are just my own personal thoughts, and I understand that some may not share them), the key difference between Lux's actions and GoW's actions have been reasonableness and honesty. Lux has been reasonable at every turn, but has not (in my experience) been especially honest. (They lied about how they were aquiring tech, and they've also told other teams that they were pissing everyone else off -- either lying or betraying other teams confidence in the process.) I'm not saying that they've done anything especially bad -- everyone's lying to everyone else, after all -- but they have seemed to be more willing to lie than the other teams. I believe that GoW, on the other hand, has been fairly honest, or at least as honest as everyone else has been (which doesn't say that much )). GoW hasn't, however, been reasonable -- which is why we keep getting into squabbles with them (though hopefully we're past that now). As such, I'd personally put them both on roughly the same level. Obviously, if we fight much more with GoW, that'll change, but I hope to avoid that from now on -- as long as we go slowly and are careful not to do anything that we know will provoke them, anyway.

-- adaMada

[Togas]

I have given jdjdjd instructions on the alliance in the other Diplo thread.

As you may note, I am keeping it alive.

It will change somewhat and morph into more of a defensive pact and, frankly, not all that binding on either party. What it does, however, is continue to garner faith and trust from Lux Invicta. It's use as propoganda is very strong.

Right now, their world is falling apart up there. If they manage to scrape together enough to not get killed by ND and GoW, they're going to remember that the only friend they had when all of this went down, was us... even though we did very little to help them.

I'm planning for the long run. If ND and GoW combine to wipe out Lux, we back out using one of our escape clauses, say our "sorries" to Lux, and then try to buddy up with ND.

If GoW & Lux combine to kill ND, then we push our friendship with Lux at the expense of GoW.

If Lux and ND get together, well ... that's pretty funny.

This can also serve as a means to pressure ND to back down and not go to war with Lux. Our clause that we will back out if a war happens due to Lux's hostile acts should help us sway Lux NOT to go to war as well.

... come to think of it, if anyone wants, please suggest other clauses or terms we should add to the new treaty. I will pick and choose which ones I think are best.

--Togas

[E_T]

What if GoW throws in with ND, how can we back out of it. This is just a phantom Treaty and it will really make us look bad if we do this kind of thing. It's better to just get out of it entirely.

Lux's Problems are entirely of Lux's making. It's not up to us to make up for their lack of good judgement.

Eta Tamali