Diplomacy: Analysis and Strategy

[astrologix]

I like the Arnelos idea, but I think it's premature at the moment.

We are all in REX at present. Let this phase end and let the pressure rise between ND and Lux. When a war would become unavoidable, then proceed as Arnelos suggested.

BTW, good analysis, jdjdjd.

[ThePlagueRat]

Ok, many good points here... but what makes you think GoW will succeed in a war against Lux? What makes the GoW so supreme on the battlefield?

Lux could suddenly double their army size when they have to,
if they currently are rexing on unoccupied land and have a small army size now, they will be the most powerful later.
(if they are not sneak attacked by the two others)
Well, it's all speculations...

Lux should be noticed (by us) that their primary concern is NOT to get involved in a war with ND. Further, they should be noticed to bully the GoW instead.(write to them about GoWs treacherous behavious or something, and how nice ND have been to us)

Who knows... perhaps the ND will go bully GoW as well ?
And if we don't bully anyone just now, and starts some serious rexing... and diplomacy towards ND, we can bully them later and win!

[Togas]

Question: Where is Neu Dem settling over the next 8 turns?

I need the best answer we can get to this question, and I need it soon. In 8 turns, our silk city will be established and our "need" for a border agreement with Neu Dem will have ended. Should we found that city and should there be no Neu Dem settler group moving south, it would be my opinion that we do not need a settlement agreement with Neu Dem, and I would drop the policy entirely.

Please, do what you can in your talks with ND, Lux, and GoW to find out what you can about Neu Dem's CURRENT settlements ... how recently have they build their last city? How much land do they still have to fill?

This is urgent. Talks are tentatively scheduled for Wednesday with Neu Dem. When I go into chat with them, I want to have some idea how strong our position should be and how much I should argue for the fullest extent of land possible.

--Togas

[History Guy]

Right, I hear both Milord and Senor Clemente. Tomorrow afternoon, at the next possible occasion, I believe, I shall contact them to inform them of the fact that I can't make the settlement deal, and to deliver all that Milord and Senor Clemente wish to have delivered.

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger

[DAVOUT]

Originally posted by Togas
Question: Where is Neu Dem settling over the next 8 turns?

I need the best answer we can get to this question, and I need it soon. In 8 turns, our silk city will be established and our "need" for a border agreement with Neu Dem will have ended. Should we found that city and should there be no Neu Dem settler group moving south, it would be my opinion that we do not need a settlement agreement with Neu Dem, and I would drop the policy entirely.

Please, do what you can in your talks with ND, Lux, and GoW to find out what you can about Neu Dem's CURRENT settlements ... how recently have they build their last city? How much land do they still have to fill?

This is urgent. Talks are tentatively scheduled for Wednesday with Neu Dem. When I go into chat with them, I want to have some idea how strong our position should be and how much I should argue for the fullest extent of land possible.

--Togas

I think that Imperial City produced a settler in 1990BC. If it headed SW, it will be on the silk around 2710BC.

[ThePlagueRat]

you mean 1710?

[DAVOUT]

You mean that the silk could have produced a settler which would be heading toward ND ?

I cant believe it !

[DAVOUT]

Originally posted by ThePlagueRat
you mean 1710?

Right. Sorry.

[ThePlagueRat]

Nice DAVOUT, a very useful thing to know. b:
I guess we can be there ahead of them ?

[Arnelos]

Originally posted by DAVOUT
I think that Imperial City produced a settler in 1990BC. If it headed SW, it will be on the silk around 2710BC.

I hope that they're this stupid

Unfortunately, this stretches the boudaries of even GhengisFarb's considerable imcomptence

[Thrumble]

Originally posted by DAVOUT


I think that Imperial City produced a settler in 1990BC. If it headed SW, it will be on the silk around 2710BC.

A gift of two free workers for our Despot!

[E_T]

Some Analysis & Conjectures after the ND chat

Item: Lux is pressuring them into war against them.
Item: ND is afraid of GoW, if they go to war against Lux
Item: GF's claim that if someone isn't a part of this "tech alliance" then they are a target.
Item: We are far south and have a major Terrain feature between us and the north
Item: Lux has this Alliance with us, incase of being attacked
Item: Lux supposedly has Warriors camped out to ND's east, preventing them from settling in that direction.

This would go with some of the other things that have been going on. This Tech alliance that GoW talks about (to them) could be partly from them Bullying ND into it. ND feels that if they don't cooperate, then they won't be able to fight off both of them.

Item: Lux has contact with Vox (and possibly GS) and are acting as tech middle men.
Item: Lux Offered us a 2 for 1 tech deal in the past, even if they are at war.
Item: We really have no Idea how long Lux has had contact, but it can be assumed that it has been for a very long time.
Item: Lux doesn't want us to venture further north, it's now assumed so that we can be kept ingnorant of the contact & the situation up there
Item: Lux has placed a city between 2 of the ND cities (a threadening move in my book).
Item: All 3 are very close, so they would have very little in the way of Barbarians to get Money from.

If Lux has plans to take on ND, then they are best placed to remove them from the "tech alliance". If they are preparing for War, then they would be building their treasury up, so as to be able to upgrade a large group of Warriors/Chariots. This would require them to have a very low tech research rate. Their contacts with Vox and possibly ND would allow them to "fake" their own research efforts and try to hide this.

Item: GF's blustering is hiding some form of master plan. It's not entirely reasonable that their whole team is unaware of what he's been doing.
Item: GF claims that Lux is building up on ND's boarders.
Item: GoW has 60 gold to give us (one trade plan had 100) for Writing.
Item: GoW was really desparate to get Writing, but didn't want to show it by GF's blustering

With the possible lack of Barbs up north, were did they get the cash?? Are they profiting off of this "tech Alliance" and allowing everyone else to do their research for them?? They could also have their tech rate set very low, to accomplish this. We have been researching very hard and our Treasuries are now only up to a fair amount, but only through Barb kills.

Conjecture: ND will not last through to the Middle ages, unless they can settle south of the Jungle (a life boat of sorts).

Conjecture: Lux's price to sell contact with Vox and/or GS will be very high. They want to maintain that monopoly for as long as they can. This can be verified by doing an embassy with them to see what is their tech rate actually is.

Conjecture: Lux will pressure ND to the breaking point and ND will be forced to go to war against them. Lux will want that to happen while our Alliance is still active with them, trying to draw us into the conflict, or just to keep us from siding with ND.

Conjecture: GoW is making it, to were ND is going to have to turn to them, so they can "sell" their services for a huge price. THis boarder agreement could be part of it.


Conclusions: we still don't have all of the peices to the whole puzzle, but are getting a better picture of what is really going on up north. We need more information, both by seeing ourselves and by gathering more of the peices. An Embassy would be the best thing to set up to get some of this information, but sending some of the Explorers up north could be another. As long as we keep looking, we will get some more of the peices together

Eta Tamali

[jdjdjd]

Lux will give us contact w/ Vox for Writing - fair to me

[Thud]

Conjecture: Lux will pressure ND to the breaking point and ND will be forced to go to war against them. Lux will want that to happen while our Alliance is still active with them, trying to draw us into the conflict, or just to keep us from siding with ND.

I disagree with this conjecture. I beleive that Lux is just as wary of ND as ND is of them. Thing is, ND knows that they can't hold a candle to Lux. Lux doesn't know this. I don't beleive that Lux will be an aggresor in the near future.

Conjecture: Lux's price to sell contact with Vox and/or GS will be very high. They want to maintain that monopoly for as long as they can. This can be verified by doing an embassy with them to see what is their tech rate actually is.

I concur that they have contact with at least Vox. However, I beleive that they could be persuaded to sell this contact, if they are so intent on being the middleman and reaping a profit.

I agree with jdjdjd, writing is a fair trade for contact, though I would push for some gold to go with it.

[Togas]

If we aquire contact with Vox, we could then aquire contact with GS from Vox ... so long as Vox has writing.

--Togas