Diplomacy: Analysis and Strategy

[Thrumble]

Originally posted by jdjdjd
As for one voice, I do not care how other ambassadors handle their offices, but I say for all to know - you are not too divulge anything to non-Spaniards about my private and confidential correspondence to Lux Invicta without my expressed written consent, or unless Togas so orders it.

I would have thought this was standard practice. Slipping info to other teams, even if it is false info could have significant effects on our team's position and reputation.

It sounds like we will soon have contact with 2 more civs which means even more personalities added to our diplomatic soup.

I have to admit that the development of our diplomacy, treaties, and planning is almost more fun that the actual civ game.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by History Guy
We've also traded some map information with the chinese but of course we didn't give them any information about spanish territory. Nevertheless we feel that it's alright to inform our neighbours about the unoccupied territory around us, as long as nobody has signed a border contract, and we hope you agree with that.

What do they define as "spanish territory" though? Only what is within our current city borders? Or the land south of the jungle? If it is the former, it potentially explains how GoW knew about spices, and also means they know about quite a bit more. And how did they share the information? In writing, or with screenshots?

Please put my questions on a "To Be Asked" list for the upcoming meeting.

[Togas]

I believe we should discuss what our border proposal will be with Neu Dem. We need to ask for more land than we want initially, then negotiate so that we get the most land possible, and also get an agreement that they will consider all of our claimed land to be Spanish, not just the land that falls under our cultural borders.

--Togas

[OliverFA]

About the one voice issue:

I've been always in favour of all the team speaking with just voice. Even if what the team thinks is not what I think. Or specially in that case. Is not that the voice from disidents is not listened, is that domestic matters must be kept private. This shows an image of an strong team to our rivals.

About the Spanish borders
My proposal is to use the Pirineos (mountains and jungle) as the border. So we don't settle north and they don't settl south. This is a the more practical proposal for both civs. Of course, that would depend on the amount of terrain ND can claim as theirs north of the Pirineos.

[OliverFA]

From the message sent to History Guy by ND:

The Ottomans sent one of their warriors into our country. We ordered him to leave immedeately but instead he walked just further towards Neu Theben until he was just one step away from our capital!
Later, the ambassador of Lux claimed that the warrior only intended to save time. That was an impudent lie, because the warrior would have arrived his destination at the same time without invading our country, and we do not doubt they used their turn to cheat!

Could you explain what they mean by "using their turn to cheat"?

[OliverFA]

From AdaMada at the other diplomacy thread:

Ok -- I'll write a PM and try to get the deal changed as such. To be honest, it's not something I'm looking forward to writing, or even something I know how I'm going to write yet. It's a tough case to make -- they offered to give us Horseback before we had writing, and it'll be very hard for us to play the "we don't trust you" line if they bring that up. My Lord's instructions are my command, and I'll get to work on it ASAP, but I wanted to go ahead and indicate that I'm not exactly sure how to approch the issue while still coming across as reasonable. Having said all of that, I'll do my best, and don't mean to say it can't be done -- I just wanted to go ahead and point out that it's not the easiest case to make.

These GoW warriors are wandering around our territory, terrorizing our women and kids. It's bad enough that we cannot get them and carry them to the watcher to hang them after a fair trial. We don't need to give anything more to GoW. By that time they would be thinking we are militarly weak, let's not give them reasons to think that we are also diplomatically weak. We have politely asked them to leave, and they stay and acuse us. They are trying to play with us. Our great lord Togas always speak wisely, but this time he has spoken even more wisely than ever. They must not get anything from us until their warriors are out. Even if that means losing Horseback Riding for us.

[ThePlagueRat]

I think we should play along with them until riding is in our knowledge... Then, at least we are able to punish them with our horsemen if they mess up things anymore?!

[Togas]

Knowing the following facts:

Lux is annoying Neu Dem now to the point that Neu Dem doesn't want to trade with them ... and is building up their forces/has stopped rapid REX to deal with Lux.

(BFM of Lux told me today in casual chat that Neu Dem won't trade with them [right now?] and that Neu Dem is linking up their source of iron)

GoW is alternately annoying us and then offering attractive trade deals to us.

GoW's team makeup is such that they have internal driving goals for world domination.

Neu Dem says that they are closer to GoW as a result of Lux's agression.

We have a defensive pact with Lux ... and I have told both Trip and BFM that we cannot help them now, we have no spare troops.

Lux has the smallest army on the continent.


I see Lux as the odd-man out, at the moment, but Neu Dem could easily be "turned on" by their neighbor, GoW. I believe there is a high likelyhood that the first war will start between Neu Dem & Lux. I believe that GoW will gain the most from this.

Personally, I would like to see Neu Dem & Lux destroy GoW, but I can't see how that would happen given Lux's antagonism of Neu Dem. We need to see if there's anything we can do to mend relationships between these two teams.

We must do whatever we can to keep Neu Dem and GoW from getting too friendly. We should offer ourselves up as a peacemaker and continue to keep warm relations with our neighbor to the north. Should Lux eventally be destroyed by the Neu Dem/GoW alliance (worst case) we want Neu Dem to view us as more friendly and more peaceful and more trustworthy than GoW. We want them to shift to our side.

Should GoW betray Neu Dem (what we want to happen) we jump to their defense.

However, I would prefer to see that NONE of the northern nations are destroyed. Keeping them all small and close together keeps their tensions high, and gives us plenty of time to fully cultivate our great expanse of territory and luxuries.

--Togas

[Arnelos]

Togas,

I agree fullly with what you have just posted.

The most critical aspect RIGHT NOW is to attempt to prevent a Lux-ND war.

We need History Guy to attempt to calm ND down and prevent them from OVERLY shooting themselves in the feet to defend against a Lux invasion that probably isn't very strong right now. We also need ND to realize that GoW sees ND as its primary target and that they will not hesitate to attack ND should an opportunity present itself.

We need jdjdjd and yourself to talk Trip out of the UTTER INSANITY of attempting to start a war with ND right now. Lux will undoubtedly be stabbed in the back by GoW and that will be the end of Lux - we can't realistically help them yet. Lux needs to cool it, get out of ND's territory, and attempt to repair relations. Ultimately, Lux needs to understand that GoW sees Lux as a target and Lux needs to plan with this understanding.

We don't want to tip our hand TOO far, but we certainly want both ND and Lux to cool it, come to their senses, and see GoW as the larger mutual threat.

Personally, I wouldn't mind if Lux and GoW went to war while ND and ourselves remained on the sidelines (initially). That would be the ideal situation. If we can get Lux to switch targets to GoW (by suggesting that while we are against any assault on ND, we will not lift a finger should someone go after GoW...), that would be great.

[ruby_maser]

I like the idea of us offering to mediate the dispute between Lux and ND. Not only is it in our interests to do so because of the stupid alliance we got tangled in with Lux, it also makes us look like the good guys... if we can keep our alterior motives sufficiently concealed.

I think we should officially offer to be a go-between for them to discuss greviances and continue to stave off the day when one civ becomes dominant over the others.

[Ninot]

ARE we shooting for the possibility of a Diplo win?

if so, this is perfect.

[Arnelos]

This is an odd-ball idea and PLEASE don't run away with it w/o thinking about it first... but...

We sign a Non-Aggression Pact of sorts with Lux Invicta, and another with Neu Demogyptica.... that says we will not lift a finger to stop them if they go to war with Glory of War... we guarantee that we will not stab them in the back.

Granted, it's just ink on paper. A promise not to stab them in the back should they go after GoW may not mean much.

But if we fail to sign any agreement with Lux that says the same concerning Neu Demogyptica (and the other way around - which we really COULDN'T due to our defensive alliance with Lux), it might get them thinking along the lines that attacking GoW guarantess that at least we won't attack them.... if we can just get it to where Lux and ND won't attack EACH OTHER if one of them attacks GoW, the situation is then ripe for war to burst out between either ND or Lux with GoW in the future while the other two of us build up our infrastructure and our armies (while the combatants are expending theirs on the war effort).

Just an odd-ball idea... We need to somehow politely let Lux Invicta know that any attack on Neu Demogyptica is VERY unwelcome by our team... but that we don't care if they attack GoW.

Even better, we might be able to "sell" such a promise to each of ND and Lux, under the guise that we might not accept such a binding promise by ourselves w/o some promise in return (don't quite know what that would be).

Just an odd-ball idea...

[Thud]

AND, when in doubt, ONLY THE NAMED AMBASSADOR TO A CERTAIN TEAM SHOULD BE THE ONE ACTUALLY TALKING TO THAT TEAM.

*cough* *clears throat* *cough*


I like the go-between idea. As an extension, I like Arnelos' idea. Its aggressive mediation.

[jdjdjd]

A war is unlikely to be caused by Lux. Trip will not fight a war unless he has the proper military strength, which he does not. Nor does he have the proper production base to support a war. He knows they are close to Iron and will have it. He knows he can't trust GoW too far, and he knows that we do not have the proximity to ND nor the manpower to help him out. Furthermore, his UU is still a long way off and he has land to settle in.
What benefit does he have in an early war?

So why does he antagonize ND? Maybe because ND is as much to blame as Lux is for the antagonism and therefore he wants to stand his ground and not look weak. Or maybe its ND's fabrication of how bad things are in order to isolate Lux from us?

My point is this - ND, Lux and GoW are all untrustworthy. We already come in thinking Lux will try to trick us, and its clear GoW is not to be trusted and they will use intimidation - these are all true. But we need to also distrust ND.

Doesnt' ND as the agressor make more sense? They apparently have the worst start location. They need room to grow. They know Lux has a weaker military. They know that they have an edge right now which they want to take advantage of. Which of the two will is likely to attack the other?

I just wanted to point that out - no one is too be trusted. And while we should try to cool tempers between ND and Lux, lets make sure we have a clear plan and that our interests are protected completely. There is no reason we should put our neck out for those who will use the axe on us at the drop of a sombrero. If our interests are not protected, then I say we keep out of it. Let them fight. GoW is not the only one who gains if there is a war. There's a lot of territory around us and a war certainly slows ND & Lux from settling it.

Anyway, back to your discussion.

[DAVOUT]

This picture describes quite accurately the situation, jdjdjd. We must be cautious with all, including the closest.