Turn 98, 610BC

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Dominae
My main observation from the screenshot is that Vox can move 1 with its stack currently at Arashi3, or 4. I'm not sure we can put enough defenders in each location. Thus we may not be able to prevent Vox from threatening Arashi and Tempest the turn after next.

True, we saw that. But if we put one pike on the mountain, we might force them either onto the open, or onto hills... or let them attacked piked mountains. In any case, it is very likely we win next turn.

I'm still not sure what they were thinking about leaving those two Immortals out in the open at Arashi6 (maybe they plan to threaten Sandstorm, but that's spreading their forces a little thin).

Those are 4 immortals, Dom, although not very good quality (1 vet, 2 regs, 1 consript) (well, not a consript, but a reg with 2 hp)

GoW: this is news to me! Did we see it coming? I hope they will not try for a PR victory by claiming we're bad because we're the aggressors. That would be lame. The two reasons I can think of as to why they landed is that they thought all our forces would be busy with Vox right now, and that our Road network was not as complete as it is. Still, they're sacrificing a perfectly good Elite Horsemen...

Yes, we saw it coming. They asked us to be able to land, and let us scream on the boards, to set up a diversion for a Bobian civ (most likely ND), fooling them into attacking their well defended positions. Another theory is that they are doing it because Vox took a contract on us. And one of the possible consequences is that they break our NDA, selling Feud to everyone next turn. (in case of Vox, that wouldn't be good news)

DeepO

[nbarclay]

If a sword moves 7-8 to hit the first immortal at Monsoon 6, Vox won't be able to counterattack him. My only reservation about that plan is that our swords would have better odds after upgrade to medieval infantry. On the other hand, if we lose a sword, that's 20 less gold for upgrade costs, and if our sword wins (better than a 50% chance, a lot better if we use our vet) he could get promoted. Of course if our vet sword gets promoted, that might make us a bit reluctant to upgrade him.

[DeepO]

sending 2 units: either contractual agreement, or they wanted to divert as much attention as possible. If both units would retreat, we would need 4 units to deal with them... it makes sense.

In their case, I would never have used an elite though, even if they would get, by some miracle, get a leader, it would be lost...

DeepO

[DeepO]

last GoW comment: I don't buy it that they didn't saw the opening on the iron mountain, which would certainly make things more difficult for us. So why would they land down there? I see 2 options:

1. it was a deal with Vox, where they got paid to disturb our offensive defenses.

2. Vox isn't aware of the situation, and it really is a pure GoW thing. In this case, GoW would probably not dare to land next to immortals. Seeing as GF commented in the turn thread that they saw lots of empty cities, with only one of ours in sight, maybe they were still thinking on who to 'invade'. D-ville is probably empty too, there is no need to defend it now.

So either Vox is in on this, or they aren't... confusing...

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by nbarclay
If a sword moves 7-8 to hit the first immortal at Monsoon 6, Vox won't be able to counterattack him. My only reservation about that plan is that our swords would have better odds after upgrade to medieval infantry. On the other hand, if we lose a sword, that's 20 less gold for upgrade costs, and if our sword wins (better than a 50% chance, a lot better if we use our vet) he could get promoted. Of course if our vet sword gets promoted, that might make us a bit reluctant to upgrade him.

Nathan, that's not exactly right. There is a reg immortal at A9, no? This would be able to hit any sword that stays at A7... so any sword we use can be attacked. The only chance we have of not exposing ourselves is using War Chickens.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Oh, BTW, could you post where you rushed the cats? There is some confusion about that...

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Good catch, DeepO. That means we need to take both Monsoon immortals with WCs.

I rushed a cat in Whirlwind and one in Sandstorm. In addition, a cat completed normally in O.G. (Another cat completed normally in Cyclone, but that one's not a factor this turn.)

[Arrian]

It is my opinion that we deal with Arashi 6 first, then the GoW horsies, and THEN evaluate what we can do about Monsoon.

I'm all for saving Monsoon if we can. But I will be damned if we use our strength on that whilst more Voxian firepower closer to our core is left alone.

My plan is this:

1) Arashi 6.

-First, fire catapult in Arashi at their stack.
-Second, attack the stack with the two WCs we have east of the river (SS8 and SS6).
-Third, hit the stack with medieval infantry out of Arashi until they have 1 unit left (should be the 2/3 immortal)
-Finally, finish last unit with WC from Arashi.

2) GoW horsies.

-First, attack elite horse with regular sword from Arashi
-Second, fire catapult at vet horse
-Third, finish vet with WC.

3) Pikeman movement/other

-Pike 8(?) of EotS moves to SS6.
-Cat in SS moves to SS6 & fires at incoming immortals.
-Pike in EotS moves toward Tempest.
-Western Galley moves into O. Gale.
-Eastern unmoved Galley moves to support the one we moved

4) Stop, and evaluate what we can do about Monsoon. If casualties have been light, we can probably afford to fight for it.

-Arrian

[DeepO]

Let's use this as a template, or we don't get anywhere fast

In general, I agree, although I'm not certain on the priority, I would go after GoW first, and only then after A6. the forces at A6 can't attack anything, but if we damage some and can't finish, they can retreat. The problem is that if GoW horses retreat next to Monsoon, we should place that higher on our priority list, IMHO.

Further, one order you could add to 3) would be moving our cat from Hurricane 888, we'll probably need it for the mountainous immortals near Arashi before needing it next to Hurricane. Stacked cats are a lot better then a couple of lose ones. And the pike from Bolderberg can go towards Tempest, I think, we'll probably can use it there next turn. (889)

DeepO

[Velociryx]

Been thinking about this at lunch today.....and now....knowing that there are two workers on the Monsoon side of things, I am all the more convinced that we should make that our first priority.

Reason: Vox has sucky production capability. If we knock out the stack that's currently adjacent to Monsoon, we can (concievably) threaten to nab two workers.

True, they could retreat them, but I'd imagine they're doing road work to speed reinforcement of the front.

This puts Vox in their first pickle since hostilities began.....do they stop the road work and retreat the workers? Do they pull units from the attack force to bolster the area and protect the workers? Do they re-route reinforcements from the front to protect the workers?

Granted, it's not a HUGE threat, but it's a feather in our cap that we're in a position to threaten them at all this early in the game.

My thoughts are though, that if we secure the west, that will not take all our available resources, and we can still plink the forces in the flats east of Arashi. Might not be able to take the stack out, but we can inflict some punishment on them for leaving the protection of the mountains.

With GoW landing in the west, and our desire to nip that one in the bud, concentration of what firepower we can bring to bear is the order of the day, and since it's a given that we want GoW OFF our turf, that automatically slants the focus westward. While we're there, we may as well clean house. Aside from that, the forces in the flats east of Arashi still have to move again before they can threaten Sandstorm, giving us another turn to prepare for them.

-=Vel=-

[alva]

That's how I see it too.
We will have to deal with those western units anyway. If Vox can't get any new units up there, we could be able to close one front.
(in three turns our galley will be there to do some reconnisance , +put some extra pressure on them)

[DeepO]

Just thought of something: If Vox asked GoW to land the horses down there, there is a huge chance GoW is scouting for them. They have traded maps before, and with the GoW info added, they can see almost all of our Western territory... except Tempest itself (but they will see a city is present there, just not what's in it)

DeepO

[Theseus]

Arrian, buddy, sorry but I disagree on this one.

Take out GoW and save Monsoon, then we can deal with the threat at A6, starting with the 2 WCs east of the river.

[Aeson]

A few comments:

GoW:

Reg Sword vs Vet Horse (on hill) is worse odds than the Elite WC vs Vet Horse (on hill). 68% (~10% retreat for their horse) to 78%.

Reg Sword vs Reg Horse (on hill) is almost same odds of a Vet WC vs Reg Horse (on hill). 79% (~7% retreat for their horse) to 78%.

So in the case we get 2 hits with the cats (72.7% odds of hitting) I think we should use WC's only. Perhaps even use the Cat in Arashi to hit the Horses with to make it as sure a thing as possible.

Arashi 6:

I don't see this stack as too much of a threat. I would much prefer to see the stack at Monsoon 6 dealt with first (especially if we give GoW units the chance to retreat).

We have 3 WC's to hit them with that don't have to cross the river. I think we should use 1-2 (1 if we kill the first unit, 2 if we retreat/lose) of the WC's first (Hurricane, SS 8) and then use the Med Inf against 2-3 HP troops. The final kill needs to be with a WC of course.

Monsoon 6:

We should have at least 4 Vet WC's to hit the two reg Immortals with, probably 5 unless we should lose one hitting GoW's Horses. A Vet WC has 61.1% odds against a reg Immortal on the flats, about 7% chance of retreating. We really don't have anything else to use these WC's on at this time, so I don't see any reason to abandon Monsoon.

All our WC's that can make it there should end their turn in Tempest.

Hurricane 8/Sandstorm 6:

The safe way to play this would be to stack everything we have on Hurricane 8, and let Vox go to SS 6. We lose SS, but hold Hurricane in just about any case (barring their units truely being Immortal). That would free up a Vet Sword to hit Arashi 6 not having to cross the river as well (the 2 Pikes + 2 Swords + Med Inf on Hurricane 8).

We'd want to disband SS next turn for sure, as EotS's cultural border gives Hurricane a 2 move cultural buffer, but if they hold SS, Hurricane only has a 1 move cultural buffer.

The main problem with leaving SS6 is we don't have anywhere (useful short term) for our Cat to go unless we clear Arashi 6. Of course, plinking a fortified unit H88 isn't going to help us any. I think they have a fortify all bug going on there, as there isn't any point of not fortifying the 1 unit that was at H88 and didn't do anything last turn. Even if we hit, it just heals up and can move next turn. We do get the shot on Vox's troops should they attack SS6 though.

I'd prefer the Cat in Arashi. We should definitely be able to clear Arashi 6 with the additional Vet Sword added to the mix.

[Velociryx]

Aeson, the only thing I'm not sure I'm in the boat with is the move of the WC's to Tempest at the end. There are a LOT of Immortals that can strike at Arashi still....granted, some of them would be striking cross-river, and thus, be further disadvantaged, but still....I'd hate to lose Arashi cos of a cheap shot like that, especially when nobody can get to Tempest in the immediacy.

-=Vel=-