Inchon landing ~600BC.

[Velociryx]

I dunno bud....having studied the maps, I'm on the same page with Arrian on this one.....on a hill, defended by fortified pikes, walls going up quickly.....if we assume that the present strike force is about all they have (extremely likely), then they'll be in no real position to hammer fortified pikemen out of the city, walls or no (tho rushing the walls should be our first priority.....another good reason to try and squeeze a third galley....we could trash the "spare" galley to get some shields for the wall, and then rush, plus we'd have more defenders).

-=Vel=-

[DeepO]

One problem I want to point out with any such city: it will be a cultural nightmare to keep it. Close to their capital, with them pressing tiles in our radius, and while Vox has (over?) double our total culture... that is a gamble in its own. We would be good to fast take out Elipolis, if we settle close to it.

DeepO

[Theseus]

What about, concurrently with building the town and thus blocking forces from the north, landing two Pikes on the road branch and pillaging it? Thus, even if we lose the town, Vox is screwed.

[Arrian]

The borders will touch, yes, but with a largish garrison & purely GS citizens, it's not that big a deal. Plus, consider that our culture will start catching up now, since we have the Lighthouse.

Aeson, I see what you're saying, but I prefer taking the chance on this. Just like with the A9 debate... you saw my points, but felt we ought to go a different route.

I'd like to hear what some of the others think, too.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

if we assume that the present strike force is about all they have (extremely likely)

I think they have 7-10 Immortals + 9-15 Warriors we haven't accounted for that they could have by the time we could land by Elipolis. The Immortals are probably coming S for us ASAP, the Warriors will be trickling down at a rate of close to 3 per turn.

Cutting the Iron access to the N isn't a concern right now... they've already done that themselves. Cutting the Iron to Dissidentville could easily mean the difference between facing 9-15 Warriors or 9-15 Immortals, regardless of whether our city holds or not.

As for holding the city, if they have 3-4 Immortals in the area the turn we land, we may never be able to found the city in the first place. Odds for a Vet Immortal attacking a Vet Pike unfortified on a Hill are 43.6%. Those are the same odds we face in Jungle... but the Settler makes it more costly if we lose, and more valuable to Vox if they win. I doubt they will have any Immortals in the area (unless they reconnect their Iron before then), just Warriors headed to Dissidentville for upgrading.

This city won't cut off the Iron access anywhere the turn we land. It also won't cut off Iron access to Dissidentville where they are likely to be doing all the upgrades. I don't really see the benefit of the city other than blocking Warriors headed to Dissidentville, which are useless anyways if we cut off the Iron.

[nbarclay]

A lot depends on when we can spare forces for such an operation. If we can break Vox's momentun at Arashi, we can spare a couple pikes for a road raid while we just have one galley on the west coast. If Vox bypasses Arashi and stays on the mountains, we're more likely to have two or three galleys ready or at least almost ready.

The other big question is how big a garrison of immortals we think Vox has in their core. If they're throwing practically everything they have at us down south, three pikes could probably hold for a while (and force Vox to recall immortals from the South to deal with the new threat), at least if Vox's iron is still cut off at the time. But if we think Vox is maintaning a larger garrison at home to deal with any storms (or Bobians) that might threaten their shores, or if they have iron reconnected and may have newly built or upgraded immortals in their core, the risk of three pikes' not holding would be a lot greater.

[Arrian]

Aeson,

1 War Chariot in that new city I'm proposing could easily pop out and cut the road to Dissidentville. So if we can muster 3 galleys, that would be perfect (4 pikes, 1 settler, 1 WC. Or 3p, 1set, 2wc).

The city is multi-purpose. Your landing is single-purpose (but has a high likelyhood of success.

However, if we land in the jungle north of Diss & cut the road there, they can re-connect their road north of Eliopolis and upgrade any warriors they still have up there in their core. And then suck it up and build Immorts from scratch. EDIT: Or are you talking about an East Coast landing right next to the colony? That makes more sense. I still prefer the city for the staging area it gives us.

-Arrian

[Velociryx]

More thoughts on it:

I like the plan for several reasons, but chief among them are:

1) It's unexpected and ballsy. It's just the sort of in-your-face maneuver they won't be expecting, and it will catch them off-guard.

2) I don't see it as boxing us in, or limiting our options, really. Aside from Dissidentville and a singular Iron Colony, everything they have lies north of the choke point, which in turn, lies north of the proposed city site, and if we mean to end them, the proposed city is certainly on the way, and an ideal staging area. We plant it there, and we can choke off any further movement through the whole rest of the continent, save for by sea, and we have a decisive advantage in that arena. As I see it, the presence of the city there moves our operational zone of control from the middle of the continent (Ashari/Monsoon region), far to the north, giving us full control of some 75% of our shared landmass.

3) Timed with a general thrust toward Dissidentville and a push northward through the flatlands by our WC's, we'll have forces reasonably close and capable of supporting the town, furthering our stranglehold on them.

4) With Vox effectively blocked in on land, and out-maneuvered at sea, we can destroy them at our leisure.

Least that's my take on it.

-=Vel=-

[Aeson]

I'm talking about an E coast landing ASAP to cut the roads 4 and/or 47 of their Colony.

This in essense would 'kill' 9-15 Immortals.

[Velociryx]

ahhh, and if I'm reading their situation correctly, they will have scant garrisons at home....certainly nothing that would be capable of dealing with three fortified pikes.

-=Vel=-

[zeit]

I think some sort of a quick limited offensive operation is in order, not only for the "in-game" damage we would inflict Vox: Cutting the Iron and perhaps blocking further reinforcements (if we build a city).

Look at the next few turns, in terms of the Voxian morale and their propaganda effort: they'll just rub our noses in it: our retreat, them moving around freely in our borders, getting close to EotS- they'll be alot more determined, probably recieve some more funding from whoever backs them, and will send more of their boys (if they have anyone up north waiting) down south.

We can handle this, sure, but think of the benefits of us cutting off their Iron- and even popping a city right in the middle of their supply route. First off all- this will throw them off balance, they'll have to re-evaluate the situation, things like: "we have to take their city quick" and maybe "we'll have to divert forces from the southern front".In short, we'll increase the amount of uncertainty amongst them, their sponsers are more likely to raise some eyebrows, and we might gain some respect on the way.

On that account- although Togas' poisoneous words bite us hard, i hardly think anyone hates us that much. Vox is in no way the most favored team- a successful daring operation against the strongest army in the world will get us plenty of credit, as long as we don't boast too much and/or mock Vox about it.

One more thing- If we build a city, Vox doesn't know how many defenders we have, they could think we have actually opened a second front, and make some preparation to take the city with force. This will gain us some more time to prepare the real invasion and pound them, while they are considering their option, given the unexpected move.

In short: Do the unexpected- landing some pikes is good, but landing with a settler is even better!

Do your best- you've been great so far!
I love being part of this team, Go GS!

[Velociryx]

Aeson, I don't see why it'd be a problem for us to persue both approaches. We already have galleys in the east, and once the matter of Ashari is decided (2 turns?), we'll either be free to move, or scrambling after a defeat. If we're scrambling, we'll be hard pressed to spare forces for either maneuver for the short term, but if we beat them at Ashari, or if they opt to go around (buying us more time), we will have resources to persue both goals.

-=Vel=-

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Arrian
The borders will touch, yes, but with a largish garrison & purely GS citizens, it's not that big a deal. Plus, consider that our culture will start catching up now, since we have the Lighthouse.

Well, the lighhouse is simply worth a temple in culture, they have build 2 temples before, we only have 1 plus the lighthouse. Our culture will not catch up before we build more cultural buildings, on the contrary, it will deteriorate because their temples are older.

Borders will not only touch, their borders will be next to our city. I count 5 foreign tiles for them, if they don't build any cultural building. so, with 3 pikes in it, it would mean somewhere near 2% chance of flipping, or roughly 25 turns on average before it falls. We can offset it by dragging along more defenders, but if their culture is still rising, we would need over 6 of them to be certain to keep it now, and this number will only increase.

If I get a screenshot of the culture rating, I should be able to calculate the exact number of troops needed. 2% is quite high as a chance, if it gets worse, it would be a serious gamble. No matter what, if we decide we are going to take the chance, we should write of the pikes as lost, only hoping that they will fare well (also, position a few med infs near the city, out of reach to their normal forces could help a lot in retaking the city if needs to)

DeepO

[edit:] wow... major screwup. That city doesn't have 2%, but .5% flipping chance, sorry about that. On average, it will last 100 turns before flipping, nothing to worry about.

[Aeson]

I'm fine with both approaches... but we are cutting it rather thin on defense right now, and the sooner the Iron goes, the sooner everything else starts to work.

Our 2 Galleys will be passing Hurricane this turn. They could wait another turn so we know how the 2 Immortals by Hurricane did (and possibly try and pick off a boat), and then pick up any extra troops we have in the Hurricane area to take to the Iron.

The W coast is going to take longer to free up most likely. We don't have a Galley there yet, and don't have a free Settler ready for at least a few more turns.

If we cut off the Iron first it makes the landing by Elipolis (or anything else) easier... At the point where we can spare 6 units (the Settler counts as a Pike + some) I'd prefer landing Med Inf + Pikes by Wittlich in case they start on a Harbor to get Iron from overseas. They may very well just go into disband mode at that point if we land troops in their core.

[asleepathewheel]

I must say this idea of Arrians is quite exciting. a very sexy maneuver.


Impressive sir, impressive. This is something I never would have thought of myself, an advantage of this team environment.