Thermopylae at A9

[Shiber]

Re: Thermopylae at A9

Originally posted by Theseus
Obscure movie reference...

Is it 'Chicken Run' by any chance?
There are plenty of movies that make fun of Vietnam veterans, but I think the exact text that you quoted appeared on Chicken Run.

My logic is that I *want* the Immortals moving toward Sandstorm (and seemingly toward Voxian consolidation), so that we can get support from our Arashi WCs if need be, and to keep them away from the iron.

I LOVE it! By funneling their troops so that some of the forces that guard Arashi could also respond to threats near Sandstorm, we are basically turning this from a state of 2 fronts on the attack and 2 on the defense to 2 fronts on the attack and one on the defense, thus increasing the efficiency of our forces.

[Aeson]

By the combat calculator alone... yes you are right Nathan. Attacking accross the river gives us better odds than defending on a Mountain.

Worst case:
4 attack (3hps) vs 2 defense (4hps)
53.8%

Average case:
4 attack (4hps) vs 2 defense (4hps)
70.4%

Best case:
4 attack (4hps) vs 2 defense (3hps)
81.6%

The question is... if we stack up on Arashi 9 does this force them onto the flats so we can get these and better odds? Or will they risk an all or nothing (for them most likely... for us it's all or Arashi/Tempest) battle?

[Theseus]

@Aeson:

As I originally posted, the way I had it set upt, I did have Arashi and Tempest both building Pikes next turn. I think I seeded Arashi with a Worker.

I'm not 100% sure you understood my point: A9 *cannot* (almost) fall the next turn. I guess I would follow up on that by saying, fine, let's pull back into Arashi then if we need to, but not now, when we would be allowing ELEVEN IMMORTALS ONTO A MOUNTAIN WITHIN SPITTING DISTANCE OF OUR CAPITOL!!

What if they DID go for EotS from there? I'm not sure we could stop them.

I'd rather Vox' force crash upon the Rock at A9, even to the extent we take some serious damage... we can handle them from there, even in your bottom 25% scenario.

[nbarclay]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't disbanding or losing Sandstorm make it a lot easier for Vox's forces to strike into our heart by opening up roads outside our cultural borders? I view Sandstorm as expendable if things go badly for us, but not as something we want (or can afford) simply to give away. On the other hand, moving our mining effort to Hurricane 8 and planting a pike and a fortified sword there would give our workers a better chance of surviving. Two fortified swords and a WC could prevent the first two immortals from taking Sandstorm right away, and from there, we could decide whether we can afford a fight for Sandstorm or whether we need our forces elsewhere. (Note that if Vox strikes toward EotS, a WC fortified at Sandstorm 6 would still be in easy striking range of Vox's Arashi forces.)

[Aeson]

I don't think they can get that stack over to Hurricane (they don't even know where Hurricane is yet... they do know where our Iron is though). We eat away at it until it becomes almost nothing if they try. Then they run into the 3-4 Pikes we can have there by the time they get there, on the Mountain 8 of Hurricane. That either breaks the stack for sure, or forces it onto the flats for a third round of WC attacks... along with a final killing blow from Med Inf.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Aeson
The question is... if we stack up on Arashi 9 does this force them onto the flats so we can get these and better odds? Or will they risk an all or nothing (for them most likely... for us it's all or Arashi/Tempest) battle?

Interesting. when you put it that way, I'm back on the fence.
I like forcing their hand, and this would certainly do that.

My question:

What would you Aeson, Theseus, Nathan, Arrian do if in Vox's situation? Attack a large stack at even at best odds or move off?

[Theseus]

I'd go for it... and see how it went battle by battle. I'd stop if I were getting my ass kicked. And I'd consolidate the small stack for the next turn.

A further answer: With A9 empty, I'd start working my way down the Spinebreakers.

[Aeson]

I understand that they can't take Arashi 9 that turn Theseus. I know I post an awful lot to read... but it's in there a few times at least.

The problem is the turn after... They can have 11 Immortals (8 surviving, 3 new ones?) to hit Arashi 9 the next turn... when we only will have a couple partly dead/mostly dead units and the 2 new Pikes, 2 new Med Inf (if we use a worker to seed... the road gets done at the right time either way).

This is worst case of course.

Normally I'd expect they have 6 Immortals (the three from Arashi 887)... 3 Damaged, 2 regs, 1 Vet, vs 2 Pikes, maybe 1-2 damaged elite Pikes that would probably want to retreat into Arashi to heal, 1-2 Sword, 2 Med inf.

We hold Arashi 9 on average, lose Arashi 9 and Arashi worst case, and win this war outright this turn in best case. I'm just not sure how much we are willing to gamble here.

---------------

If they head for EotS their stack might as well disband itself right now. We can kill 11 Immortals the second they step off the Mountains given that much time to build up. That's assuming they take the 'best' road there they can, down past Tempest to EotS 44, and then only have 1 Plains tile to cross. That's giving us 7 turns of a unit a turn in EotS and Hurricane, a unit every other turn in Bolderberg, Tempest, and Cyclone (Cats), and a unit every 3 turns in Tornado... along with whatever we cash rush along the way.

By my count we could hit them with (leaving more than enough Pikes in Arashi to hold against reinforcements):

~20 WC's/Horsemen
~4 Cats
~8-10 Med Inf (depending on how Hurricane fares)

And anything that survived that (nothing would) would have to face Pikes in EotS.

This is why I say we should pray they are headed to EotS. (it's uglier if they try along the E side of the river, not as many units, but far more turns in the open)

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Theseus
I'd go for it... and see how it went battle by battle. I'd stop if I were getting my ass kicked. And I'd consolidate the small stack for the next turn.

Agreed. And if they do that, it would prevent us from winning as big a victory at A9 as we would in Aeson's best-case scenarios, while fully exposing us to his worst-case scenarios.

A further answer: With A9 empty, I'd start working my way down the Spinebreakers.

Even knowing that in doing so, you expose your forces to an attack on flatlands from an unknown number of swordsmen, medieval infantry (if you remember the possibility of upgrades), and war chariots? If Vox can take Arashi, they have a clear path down the Spinebreakers without ever having to get on flatlands.

[Aeson]

If I was Vox I'd hit Arashi 9. The war is a lost cause for them unless other civs join in and actually have troops they can land very soon. GoW is the only threat for this, and I doubt they could land enough troops.

Barcelona just built a Harbor...so they can't have built many Galleys. Same with ND's coastal city (forever away too). So Vox's best shot is to take Arashi, hurting us... hit Monsoon and Sandstorm, which they probably can take if they really want to... and make a play for Tempest (which I don't think they can take in any case).

The minute they bring their Immortals off the Mountains, this war is 'over' IMO.

[Aeson]

Well them killing a couple Immortals on our Pikes fits in with 'best case' in my book. So they have 11-12 Immortals there the next turn (basically swapping out 2 Vets for 2 Regs most likely), and we have 5 Pikes, maybe 1 Elite, and 2 more Med Inf. 3 of our Pikes are fortified, as are all our 2 defense units. Our cat gets a free shot, and we are 1 turn closer to the reinforcements.

In that scenario we hold Arashi 9 forever IMO.

[Arrian]

If I were in Vox's shoes...

I'd definitely want Arashi.

I would have put every unit I had in the area in a monster stack, prepared to hit A9. Then, based upon what I saw sitting on A9 at the beginning of the turn, I'd decide whether or not to hit it.

If presented with an empty A9, I'd definitely move onto it. And then probably hit Arashi.

Confronted with 3 pikemen, 4 swordsmen, a cat and some WCs on A9... I'd probably try to work out the probabilities. Presented with the odds Aeson is talking about, I'd probably roll the dice. They have to know the longer things go, the better it is for us.

Then, if I took A9, I'd try to hold it and bring up reinforcements to take Arashi, sooner rather than later.

Still, it's ugly from anyone's perspective. Hell, I would have either invaded us a while ago, or not at all. Letting us get to pikemen & med inf. probably screwed them.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

To take the issue of whether I would attack Arashi if I were in Vox's place a bit farther, it would really depend on what I thought the enemy had there. If I thought I could take it, I would.

1) It provides a clear shot down the spinebreakers without entering flatlands, or, alternatively, I can use GS's road network in Arashi.
2) It gives me a place to heal that isn't so far back.
3) It costs GS production.
4) It avoids leaving enemy troops behind me.

In contrast, bypassing Arashi requires that I (as a Voxian general) expose my forces to attack on flatlands with no return on my losses except for whatever enemy forces I might kill in the process.

[asleepathewheel]

Nathans perspective causes me to ponder the following which is slightly off topic and hopefully purely hypothetical:


It will be interesting to see, if arashi fails, what Vox does with it.

do they try to hold it, knowing its surrounded by GS cities?

do hey hold for a turn to heal, then abandon?

do they raze immediately?

They might be under orders from RP to raze everything they can.

Or they might just raze everything for their own reasons



Think of the propaganda out of Beta if Arashi falls?

uke:

[Aeson]

They can get down to Tempest on Mountains... but they probably don't know that (or where Tempest or any of our cities down there are). There is a slight chance they stole our world map, but then why not land on/near our Iron and Hurricane with more? Certainly worth delaying for a couple of Galleys, and this is too well planned to not consider their only real shot at beating us (taking Hurricane and our Iron ASAP).