Thermopylae at A9

[Theseus]

To reprise my post from Tuesday, with a little more time:

FFF***************************CCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKK!! !!!!!!!!!

Well played by Vox, and to those who have counseled extreme wariness, my hat is off to you.

I have underplayed my martial role, having not been enough the hawk, and for that I apologize to all.

(But watching the team in builder mode was fascinating :b ... as I've said before, I don;t play nearly as well as the GS team has, and it's been an excellent learning experience (OH NO, Theseus goes into AU mode! WORSE, Togas accuses me of being elitist ))

Speaking of AU, for those who remember when I had the time to play and write decent AARs, I developed a bit of a specialty in overcoming dire situations...

("Esprit de Corps! That's the way I earned my commission in the Maharaja's pachyderm brigade. Back in '88 it was, or was it? It was then I received the Victoria Cross for bravery above and beyond the call of duty. Ha-ha! Those were the days! Discipline. Discipline was the thing. Builds character and all that sort of thing."

Obscure movie reference... sorry, couldn;t help it. )
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Anyway, back to dealing with tough spots, now from the perspective of 650 BC, and some different ideas I've been trying out on the save today while 'poly was down (note: same as Nathan, I got a Cat out of Monsoon):


HURRICANE

I figure let's get this one out of the way first, as it's easier. As I stated before 'poly went down, I think Vox blew it by either 1) not consolidating the three Immortals, or 2) keeping one Immortal on the Galley to threaten us further south.

I would fortify one vet Sword on Sandstorm6, and move the other vet and the reg to Hurricane8, to be fortified next turn. My logic is that I *want* the Immortals moving toward Sandstorm (and seemingly toward Voxian consolidation), so that we can get support from our Arashi WCs if need be, and to keep them away from the iron. I want to make them pay for it though, thus they have to fight through at least one tough Sword.

In addition, I configured Hurricane to produce a MedInf instead of a Pike, and EotS and Tornado to produce a Horseman each, all next turn.

Assuming they do come this way, the other two Swords can attack. If they go to Sandstorm9 or try to bust through the then-fortified Swords at Hurricane8, we have a vet Sword, vet MedInf, and two vet Horseman to deal with them, all before looking to Arashi for support.

Lastly, I added one Worker to Sandstorm and set it to build a Cat, and fortified a Worker on the iron.

I think we are fine here, even if the Galley comes back with two more Immortals.


ARASHI AND MONSOON

Vox' threats:

Vox, in my mind, made a serious mistake not either a) consolidating into a SoD at Arashi89, or b) moving the small stack to Monsoon6.

So now, how are we threatened? OK, so by not moving the small stack, Vox has continued the threat on Monsoon. Well, I think we are all prepared to lose Monsoon... actually, dealing only with the main stack and letting the small stack wander is probably a blessing. If need be, I could even foresee sacricing Whirlwind and faux-fleeing OG in order to get the small stack trapped in a desert killzone.

Arashi and the Spinebreakers are where the action will be.

Although I think Aeson's idea of giving up A9 has some strong positives to it, I think it too dangerous. How would we stop the big stack from coming 221 to the mountain between Arashi and Tempest, thus threatening both? And, with the increased defensive requirement of covering two towns, where would we get the offensive firepower to blow these clowns away? Lastly, what of the additional Immortals clearly coming our way?

Nope, I say it's time to take a stand. GS' Thermopylae... yes, against Persians.

I've got the WCs from Bolderberg and EotS in Arashi, the elite WC at 3hps, Hack upgraded to a MedInf, the remaining Warrior, and a Worker to seed the next build.

I've got Tempest and Arashi set to build a Pike each next turn.

I've pulled the northeastern WC back to the road at Arashi96 (as described above, I think Hurricane will be fine, and thus we don't need to watch for the Galley).

And I've got my equivalent of the Spartan 400 at A9: 3 Pikes, 4 Swords, 5 WCs, and 1 Cat. That's 12 combatant units; in other words, 11 Immortals and a Spear would have to win EVERY battle to take A9. And if they try to wait a turn to consolidate into a 14 Immortal and 2 Spear SoD, I'll have 6 more units in the immediate area to take A9 up to 18 combatants (many of which will be truly fortified).

So that means either we face off, or VOX F*CKING GETS OFF OUR SPINEBREAKERS!!

Ahem.

OK, now for the potential bad news: They attack next turn, when only the one reg Sword is actually fortified.

Aeson, can you or someone else run some tests on this scenario?

Look, I know it's going to be bloody as hell... friggin' WCs defending against Immortals??!!... but we can HOLD THE LINE!!! And, as we do, on this and successive turns, we will have local production power in our favor, and we will turn the tide!!


MISCELLANEOUS

I;ve got Monsoon, Whirlwind, and Sandstorm set to Cats.

Bolderberg and Cyclone are set to WCs in two turns (I disbanded a Worker in Cyclone).

Typhoon and Sufa are still on Galleys.

I've got the Workers on the three hills between Monsoon and Whirlwind.

WTF is GoW doing?


CHAT AND PREVIOUS TURNS

I am 100% serious about calling me any time, day or night. I think you guys did a heroic effort dealing with the last two turns (and the monster chat). I have noooooo problem with the decision to complete the GLH. I would have done some things differently, but hey, that's what I get for not being up at 5am.

[Arrian]

Interesting, Theseus. Good constructive use of 'poly downtime

I would like to see some testing so we get an idea of the casualties we're likely to suffer/inflict. If "holding the line" costs us most of our army, it isn't worth it.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

This was what I was going to post when Poly went down earlier...

I've run several tests with that makeup Theseus (note, this is in response to 11 units on Arashi 9), and we definitely hold Arashi 9. The problem is what we end up with with only 3 Pikes is highly variable.

The 'average' case is probably only 50% of the time, where we end up with 1-2 Pikes, 1-2 Swords, and maybe a dead/retreated WC or two. They end up with 4-6 Immortals, mostly wounded, but all outside our territory.

The 'worst' case (where I'd say we 'lose' even while holding) happens probably 25% of the time. We lose all our Pikes, and all but maybe 1 Sword. We also lose a WC or two. They end up with 8 Immortals, mostly wounded, but outside our territory.

The 'best case (where I'd say we 'win' all around) happens the other 25% of the time. We save most if not all of our Pikes, most if not all of our Swords, and they end up with 2-4 Immortals, mostly wounded, but outside our territory.

If the fight happens in Arashi, the odds move more to the center and to the best case. That's because we have an extra Pike, 2 extra Med Inf, and everything is fortified (~+5% odds all around).

The worst case isn't as bad (we almost surely save a pike or two, and 2-3 swords), the best case is more likely, and the average case works out better (see worst case). Plus all our wounded heal up the next turn, and all their wounded have to leave our territory, buying us 2 extra turns before we have to face them again.

[Theseus]

But again, you are assuming they attack Arashi... I wouldn't.

BTW, we *may* have an extra commentator helping out.

[Arrian]

Hmm? Extra commentator?

-Arrian

[notyoueither]

I think there is a strong possibility that they will leave the SpineBreakers and move on EotS. Or they will take their shot at Arashi (where we have much better odds of winning).

We have to keep in mind what they know and what they don't. We also need to judge how patient they will be to explore while we build.

My estimation is that they will seek decisive action at an early date. Chewing on 4 or 5 fortified Pikes in Arashi is more likely to break their teeth.

[Arrian]

KILW AWL DA WABBATS!

Sorry, that just popped into my head.

Here comes Vox (Elmer Fudd) seeking to kill GS (Bugs) who keeps dancing around him, foiling him at every turn.

Dance like a butterfly, sting like a bee!

-Arrian

[asleepathewheel]

I say withdraw to Arashi- the odds are in our favor and it forces Vox to make the decision the next turn: move to attack Arashi, not knowing the amount of defenders, down to the zee flood plains towards the capital, or down through the mountains.

I think we win all three of those options, especially number 2. Number one will allow more units in for defense and fortified. Number three would be dicier to defend two cities.

The attack in the cultural radius is important to me, to prevent them from healing.

Query:

What kind of units will we have for defense in Tempest by the time they come down the mountain? Thats what, three more turns?


If they continue to move south or east, leaving 2 spears on each mountain, we might consider sending a small contingent to destroy their supply lines from north (sack d'ville either from monsoon using m, inf or east using WC's

[nbarclay]

If they bypass Arashi and we have Arashi 2 or Arashi 3 roaded, sometime after they leave the mountain, we can hit them with something along the lines of six medieval infantry and seven WCs. Even with the medieval infantry attacking across a river (the WCs wouldn't have to), my bet is that that gives us a much better kill/loss ratio than trying to hold Arashi 9 would. (I'd love for someone to test that scenario if they have time, hint hint, Aeson .) And Vox's survivors would be mostly if not all injured, and in our territory where they can't heal without withdrawing, in contrast to the Arashi 9 situation where they could merely sit where they are a couple turns. So I don't view Vox's bypassing Arashi as a huge nightmare.

[alva]

True NYE,

They know we can outproduce them and have to travel some distance for reinforcements to arrive, therefore they will be seeking to strike soon and trying to hit on a city, not 'neutral' or unimportant terrain.
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Hurricane with it's wonder could be an immortal magnet too.
They could a destroyed wonder very well on the public forum, and as prove for other civs to keep funding them.

[asleepathewheel]

If they cut the roads on the mountains, can our WCs still attack them?

Not sure if they would waste the immortal turn on that, esp if they are on the move still, but somthing to think about.

[Theseus]

No.

[Aeson]

They don't know that they can split our cities. I agree with NYE that they are either headed for Arashi, or headed for EotS. We need them to do one of those two things to come out of this without losing Arashi IMO. If they call our showdown at Arashi 9, they probably take Arashi. We hold Arashi 9 that turn, but the most we will have in defense is a full pike

Abandoning the mining project does make Hurricane safer in the short term (next 4 turns), but will cost us a lot of shields.

If we want to give up Sandstorm, lets move the Workers to Hurricane 8 and mine, we can stack everything we have there that way (and put a WC on the Iron), they can't get through (if they attack the first turn, it's a slaughter, 2 Immortals up against 1 Pike (not fortified) 3 Swords (fortified). The Pike fortifies and has backup Pikes the next turn. It adds 1 more turn to building the mine. In the meantime, Hurricane builds this Pike, then starts pumping out 1 turn cats/WC's.

I would say rush a Settler in Sandstorm to disband it if we play it that way. We will want Settlers along with our offensive. Sandstorm isn't that productive at this point and is better positioned one tile 8 from where it is anyways... we just had to build it there because of the Republic being such a close thing.

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If we do try and hold Arashi 9... Disband one of the Warriors to seed a Pike in Arashi next turn with. A Pike next turn on Arashi 9 is more important than a Med Inf can be. If we are lucky, that gives us 2 new Pikes (Arashi, Tempest) to cover our wounded next turn, along with 1 Med Inf. Hopefully 1-2 Pike remain at Arashi 9 (they will be elite if it does almost surely), but they will both be redlined or close to it, so we have to pull them back into Arashi. We can't count on them for defense. Our Cat will survive almost surely.

I would put our chances of holding Arashi 9 (indefinitely) this way at ~80%. If we hold Arashi 9, Arashi holds too. If we lose Arashi 9, Arashi falls too.

I think our chances are slightly better pulling back to Arashi and hoping they don't know to try to split Arashi and Tempest. Arashi almost surely holds if they hit it directly, so the chance of failure is almost completely the chance that they will bypass Arashi and head for Tempest. Even then though, we have pretty decent odds of holding both cities... especially if they guess the wrong one to attack.

The chance for us to win this war (for all intents and purposes... it's still going to be hard to make the swing into offense though) here and now at Arashi 9 are there, and pretty decent.

[nbarclay]

Edit: I realized my analysis was wrong.

[Aeson]

Vox, in my mind, made a serious mistake not either a) consolidating into a SoD at Arashi89, or b) moving the small stack to Monsoon6.

If they sent 3 of their 11 off to hit Monsoon, we hold Arashi 9 (no-brainer).

So the decision can wait until we know for sure. If they have 11 Immortals at Arashi 89, it's a tough decision.