The War

[nbarclay]

With GoW making rumblings on getting in on the action, there is now an excellent chance of a major war on the main continent. That presents both a danger and a potential opportunity.

The Danger: Depending on how big the continent is (currently unknown) and how decisively one side or another gains the upper hand, we could easily end up facing a genuine superpower on the other continent. That's doubly true if someone ends up with the Pyramids or Great Library from a leader generated in the war (although with how early in the game we are, a lot of the units involved will be regulars rather than veterans).

The Opportunity: If the war is very long and costly, we could have an excellent opportunity to join with Vox, invade the other continent, and sweep the tattered remains of the warring civs aside. That could be especially true if we can catch them focusing on catching up on infrastructure after the war is over.

Possible strategy: Forget about starting a wonder at this time, and focus on REXing, barracks, and troops. If we're bigger, with lots of cities, a large military, in Republic, and ready to trigger a GA, we'll be in an excellent position to do whatever makes sense at the time.

Option 1: Ally with Vox to sweep up the remnants on the main continent if the war hurts the civs there badly.

Option 2: Ally with Vox, and possibly with RP, to deal with a budding superpower if one appears to be forming.

Option 3: If conditions on the main continent do not make an invasion there either necessary or profitable, we could always use our mighty forces on Vox.

Nathan

[notyoueither]

Well, it's 2 on 1. One of the 2 is very prepared.

I'd say Lux is on the road to extinction.

[DeepO]

There are a couple of other options too, of course, like using the time this war is going to take to jumpstart our research. We should be able to get to republic before anyone else can change to monarchy. By exploiting that, and keep ourselves isolated for a while, an alliance to deal with any other posible superpower would be easy...

DeepO

[DeepO]

nye, don't forget the saved gold of Lux, if I interpreted it right, GoW did their own research, while Lux didn't. That might make a large difference. If not for that, the outcome would be very predictable, I agree.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by DeepO
nye, don't forget the saved gold of Lux, if I interpreted it right, GoW did their own research, while Lux didn't. That might make a large difference. If not for that, the outcome would be very predictable, I agree.

Which raises the question of how useful the gold has been/will be. If Lux has already used the gold for a lot of warrior-to-swordsman upgrades, or has lots of warriors (especially vets) waiting to be upgraded, they could be a lot more potent than their score even hints at. On the other hand, if they have lots of gold but nothing they're in a position to upgrade in a timely manner, it may do them essentially no good.

[DeepO]

Nathan, their score is not directly related to their power...

True, they will need to have iron connected, and some upgrades under way, or about to complete if they want to use their cash, but I strongly question if they would have attacked the provoking ND scout if they didn't have a lot of swords ready, or some horsies close by...

Let's do an estimate on the amount of cash they have gathered: let's say 30 turns on a 10 gold / turn average... 300 gold is enough for 7 sword upgrades. Even if these are regular, that is a serious threat at this point in the game.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

I do view it as probable that Lux has been planning in terms of large-scale upgrades. But probable is not the same thing as certain. Given Lux's apparent size, I'm inclined to guess that 10 gpt average accumulation is probably a bit on the high side, but on the other hand, there's little telling exactly who has what from trades and sales.

By the way, the fact that NG's capital is size 5, GoW's is size 3, and Lux's isn't even on the chart does not look at all promising for Lux.

Edit: And yes, I know very well that score is only very indirectly related to power. But it's about the best hint we have.

Nathan

[DeepO]

I doubt it's true, but I've got one simple explanation for Lux's capital being less then size 3: pop-rushing. 1 shield and 1 pop make a nice spearman

Oh, and yes, 10 gpt is a very rough guess, but it gives an idea... even with 9 gpt for 30 turns you get to nearly 7 swords.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Pop rushing in a capital this early in a game is either crazy or desperate, not that that makes it impossible that Lux might have done some.

[Shiber]

Originally posted by nbarclay
By the way, the fact that NG's capital is size 5, GoW's is size 3, and Lux's isn't even on the chart does not look at all promising for Lux.

Yes. In fact, their capital was never on the chart. Not even for one turn. Even Vox's desert capital was there.
Either Lux has been given an awful start, or they're pop-rushing.

[DeepO]

Good observation, and yes, it's true! It is normal that Lux is behind other teams if they are the same size, but never have they been bigger then size 2! In fact, you can also see that Lux's capital can't have bonus food either, as many times the last cities on the graph are size 1, and Lux doesn't pass that.

This could mean super efficient settler building, but as they haven't produced any culture in there yet, I guess pop-rushing was maybe used.

[edit: Lux's capital can have been size 3 for the last 2 turns, but not before that]

DeepO

[notyoueither]

btw, it occurs to me that the suggestion raised elsewhere re GoW being dishonest re attacking Lux could very well be true. Current scores are:

103 (+2) Demogyptica
100 (+2) Role Play
81 (+1) Glory of War
73 (+0) Lux Invicta

I have observed that scores are a very good indication of power of a civ when the gaps are significant. A 30% gap is significant.

So what GoW has announced that they are doing is joining number 1 on their land mass to destroy number 4. By the end of it, they will be number 3 and their won't be a number 4 (assuming that RP REX'es it out instead of taking a side).

Does that make any sense from a strategic POV when they could just as easily join Lux and defeat the number 1, thus most likely vaulting themselves into the number 2 or the number 1 spot? Hmmmmm.

Yes, let's stay the heck away from this and keep to ourselves.

[notyoueither]

btw, if I were RP right now, I would most likely have the peace corps of diplomats going overtime. They stand to lose the most if they stay uninvolved as some other civ is about to gain what is most likely an ideal FP location (the capitol of the vanquished).

Or, they will join it to thwart ND or pick up their scraps from Lux. This is fascinating...

[DeepO]

Well, there would be multiple reasons why GoW joins in on attacking Lux, so it wouldn't be illogical of them to do it. I justed wanted to keep the possibility of a deception open.

Reasons:
- Lux traded techs from them to Vox, and from Vox to either them or RP
- Lux kept the contact position to reach Vox secret, thus keeping a middleman position.
- GoW found out about abive deceipt, broke Lux's role by contacting Vox, heared where Vox got his tech from, and spilled the news to RP who was also pissed about the techs.
- Lux's position is easier to defend for GoW then ND's territory is, as it isn't pressed in between two other civs.
- Lux has a lot of cash, and GoW knows it. Maybe Lux doesn't have iron connected, and GoW wants to take it out before they can have access to it (doubtful, but possible)
- Maybe, Lux's power is simply far greater as ND's, and GoW does join in on the weaker side.

Main question I ask my self is why GoW wouldn't wait for 2 or 3 turns before joining in, there would have been a very good chance that ND at least weakened Lux, so it would be easier for them (with lesser spoils, perhaps). They must feel very confident, or this is all just a show.

DeepO

[notyoueither]

Last musing for the moment... but this is the really important one...

What if we manuever ourselves into position to buy the world map of the most desperate civ. About the only way a civ is going to part with that document is if they are under imminent threat of extinction and an influx of gold could buy them a new lease on life. This would involve switching tech priorities, but would it be worth it?