Are we playing too conservatively?

[Theseus]

Hmmm...

From the great vantage point of being over 40, I will stick to the Seven Pillars for the moment.

How will we win? What will break the game open for us?

TO me, the sort of hinge question, FOR NOW, is whether or not we need an Ancient GW. The only one that I now believe could be that valuable is the Pyramids.

Let's hypothesize that we do not try for a GW... all of a sudden, we can do all of the REXing and military build-up that we need.

Second, I do acutely feel the lack of balance. I've lived in fear of Immortals, or for that matter 3-4 Swords landing on mountains, since the beginning of the game.

I've been OK with taking some military risk till now (and thus haven't pushed Spartan Academy issues too much), but I HAVE said from the beginning that we need an approrpriate military stance, including Spearmen on key defensive points, WCs for open ground killzones, and Swords for the tough spots.

It's time to get that force in place.

Lastly, the degree of conservatism in our play. I'd say it's been driven by two things.

Nathan and others successfully pitched for a safe, builder style, partially based on a perception that we were at a terrible risk of tech isolation, and thus we shouldn't get stuck in a war with Vox, and should focus on the GLib... I, for one, no longer think this applies.

Lastly, I guess it's the nature of the beast: we've got a bunch of pretty good players with different styles... and that's just fine, it will in the long run be our strength. Until we get onto a more concrete and long-lasting strategy, however, it has probably been better to take the more conservative course.

But, uhh, hmm...

First, you learn balance. At least that's what Miyagi-san said.

[Aeson]

I would like to see us adopt a mostly WC military buildup. We will be in a republic soon, and that greatly diminishes the problems with an Ancient Era GA. Spearmen would be used to garrison the highest danger cities, those which are built next to mountains, as well as at least 2 centrally located that can respond anywhere in our empire with the warning time we are able to guarantee (requires a good road system). As we will be in a Republic soon, the 'garrison' Spearmen should stay on the mountains and force any potential enemy units onto the flats for our WC to respond to. An army of this nature would advance our security much further and at a lower number of units than relying on upgrading Warriors (after the Iron is hooked up).

We may want to at least leave open the option of actually using our Warriors. If I read correctly, there have been some conversation with Vox about trading their southern cities for mainland cities if we capture them? This may very well be our best bet of expansion while creating a stronger alliance with Vox. If warfare breaks out on the mainland we should at least reserve the ability to participate and not just passively wait for the possibility of a superpower forming outside our borders.

Detailed planning would of course require detailed information (maps). The Lighthouse may be an effective wonder in our situation, and one that a size 11 city in a GA would have a good shot at building even as their second wonder ( )... Galleys travelling by sea are often not visible to landlubber civs, and can scout out coasts and landings. Also (reliable) contact with Lego could very well rely on the extra movement. Bear in mind that if another civ were to build the lighthouse, we would possibly have 0 turn warning of a landing on the east coast unless we build up a navy of our own.

[zeit]

If the vote is on, i'll strongly push for staying in our course- those of you who say no to consevative play and push for military buildup are actually pushing for a conservative play. As Theseus said- "i lived in fear" this is not a real case, just a gut feeling that we could and should have more units. But i think its the SP experience that influences- the AI is expected, and someone always tries to pick on you, which means you have to keep armed forces and be aggressive . But this is MP, and humans tend to take other considerations, like what they might lose- what is their benefit from an invasion, in their eyes- land? they hardly know what are the island's dimensions. hurting a "ringers" team- why not hit someone who might hit them instead of us, or maybe some team with a big score and peaceful agenda, like lego?

And no for the costs- "galley time"- scouting the shores. Immense shield effort- as Shiber stated. Exposing their borders for would-be attackers from their own continent, especially after the whole world know about it. Having to invade a foreign island against a determined and skilled (and they know we are, that's for sure) team, and manage highly corrupted cities (if they succeed in conquering).

Their other option- investing in an alliance agianst a civ on their mainland. Strengthen their culture. REXing (remember, everyone are still REXing, even we).

After reviewing all this, and even after hearing Aeson's and Theseus' delightful description (which almost made me drool) of the WC's, swordsmen and killzones, and also Theseus and others legitimate fear from Voxian invasion, I still have say this is too early, and the best option would be to keep using our momentum and advantages- the time for military buildup and conquest will come, but not yet. Halting our development now will just be wrong- because balance isn't everything, and this is not SP, so balancing, IMHO, is not as important as gaining a decisive advantage and keeping it, like we try to do.

Also- fearing a tech isloation was IMO far more logical than fearing galley supported invasion, so working to make sure we weren't (tech isolated) has rightly recieved, and still recieves greater attention.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by zeit
If the vote is on, i'll strongly push for staying in our course- those of you who say no to consevative play and push for military buildup are actually pushing for a conservative play. As Theseus said- "i lived in fear" this is not a real case, just a gut feeling that we could and should have more units. But i think its the SP experience that influences- the AI is expected, and someone always tries to pick on you, which means you have to keep armed forces and be aggressive. But this is MP, and humans tend to take other considerations...

To the contrary, in SP you may neglect your defences and catch up when and as needed. If the AI comes knocking you can fight defensively with inferior forces and wait for the opportunity to make peace. That opportunity will come.

In MP, if you are unprepared and an opponent comes for you... A: they will be big and nasty or there will be many of them (an alliance), and B: will not be bought off or delayed due to inappropriate use of forces. Humans will come fast and relentlessly if they will come. A civ unprepared for war when the first shot rings out will die before they can arm themselves.

I have had it done to me, and I have done it to others. You are right, it is nothing like playing with AI. It is far more vicious and lethal.

[zeit]

I agree its more vicious, but i actually think humans can be reasoned with, unlike the AI which works according to a hard set of rules. And i also think that defensive wars against humans are far more difficult- with the AI you take one city at a time- you have he's territory map, and he hasn't heard about the phrase "(defensive/offensive) effort concentration. We should be prepared, but we just can't win if we keep planning for the worst case- have we done it with the FP plagues? no we havn't, and still we got screwed, yet know one says we should stop using them. We all understand the risks of plague, therefor we don't fear it as much as we do fear this vague "invasion threat". I hardly see human opponents go to war as blindly opportunistcly as the AI does, simply becaue the realize the risks and the effort put into it (unlike real world leaders and generals, who might feel detached from the private suffering of the soldiers and citizens), we are simply not good enough targets in their eyes, not yet. By the time we might become more available (to wany potential incaders), we can defend ourselves better, without hampering our early development so badly- as those who call for our immediate buildup of a serious defensive-counter attack capable force.

In regards to navy buildup- i very much for this- for the reasons mentioned and also becuase we have the best chance of finding a habitable island somewhere to the east or NE of our location.

[notyoueither]

I'm not sure if I'm making the case clear.

Suppose that LI or RP convince Vox that it would be in their best interests to attack us. They offer to land in the South at the same time as the Immortals come down from the North. Now, just suppose that Vox goes along with this and uses their 4 or 6 cities to build warriors which upgrade to Immortals. They remain under our Mil Advisor strength comparison RADAR until the turn that 6 or 8 or 10 of them upgrade to Immortals in Dissidentville. That turn 4 Galleys show up off the coast near Cyclone and land 6 Horse and 2 Sword... Now, how do we deal with that when we dont even have 1 Spear per city?

The point is that running with minimal military is an all or nothing game. Either we are attacked or not. If we are attacked when unprepared, we will be wiped out. No matter how good we are, we cannot defend cities with our reputations. Most likely around 20% chance of being attacked, maybe only 10. Do we feel lucky?

[Dominae]

Funny how the main purported advantage to peaceful relations with Vox was the ability to focus on economic pursuits. What are we doing with that economy? Planning for war.

Seems to me like we're going to build up a nice military in the next thirty or so turns. Why not take it up a notch and plan to use it on the best target: Vox?

I personally doubt an inter-continental invasion will come knocking on our door anytime soon (would you rush Gathering Storm if you were on the mainland?). But if we're preparing for it nonetheless, I do not want to see our military units idle.

So here's my (conservative) plan: expand, build defenses, use those defenses for offense against Vox when the times is right. Sometimes SP tactics are not so bad.


Dominae

[Aeson]

I just got my first look at the mini-map. If the maps are positioned right, there is a very good chance that we have a Lighthouse crossing to RPG off the western desert. That also means they would have a Lighthouse crossing there too. In fact I think it's definite, and a regular crossing is very likely.

There are 3 tiles from our capitol to the coast due west. On the minimap that shows as 15 pixels. There are 20 pixels from the coast off the western desert to the coast off RPG's capitol, suggesting a 4 water tile span. A galley with the lighthouse, 4 moves from sea to sea, would be able to cross up to about 30 pixels. A galley on it's own can cross up to 4 tile spans.

I am emailing a look at this view.

[Dominae]

I'm willing to bet any team will not seriously consider assaulting our continent alone. If tensions are high on the main continent, they all have more immediate problems to deal with. Consequently, no team will seriously go for the Great Lighthouse, regardless of a viable crossing.

The other possible scenario is if alliances are made amongst the mainland teams, where it could then be possible that they jointly plan for an inter-continental invasion. But this case is unlikely, unless Gathering Storm becomes too powerful too fast.


Dominae

[DeepO]

Aeson, yes, the maps are combined pixel-perfect, I'm sure of that. There are some blurs as some teams sent a compressed jpg or gif though.

Interesting analysis. Do you think there will be either an island, or a larger continent South of Legoland? It seems an awfull empty spot...

DeepO

[Theseus]

I gotta sleep... family obligations at 7am (!) tomorrow.

But this latest discussion has got me ROTFL, especially with Aeson now chiming in.

What a collection of different styles we have...

I'm pretty sure I hold the record for shortest post on 'poly... I forget what, but it was a one-keystroke answer.

Here's my short thought for tonight:

Balance. Explode.

[Aeson]

It's hard to say if there would be a 4th landmass or not given our general lack of knowlege of even our own continent. Lego may have a biggish island to themselves, or there could be some sort of archipelago.

------------------------------

If this crossing to RPG is a galley crossing, it really raises the risk we are in, and opens up a lot of opportunities for us as well. If it is a Lighthouse crossing it may be the game breaker. If we're going to take advantage of an opportunity of this sort, we need to be ready for it before it happens.

It seems that most demogame teams are rather passive, or at least has been the case in any of the demo games I've seen. That doesn't mean we should ignore the possibility that one of them will get agressive and make a play to win this thing, or that we can't be more proactive ourselves.

With our current military state though, we are locked into a passive approach to any possibility that arises. We don't need a lot more units, but an offensive capacity of some sort would be nice. Even if the consensus is to wait for the Middle Ages to start any offensive, we should be building our Knights/Cav now.

[Shiber]

The crossing is not the only sea route from RP to GS. We know that Vox and Lux are bordered by a 1-tile sea. RP can sail along Lux's coast, move to Vox's coast and then reach us. This path is longer, but they get to do some scouting on the way.
What would really convince me to build the Great Lighthouse is if after MM is discovered, we share world maps maps with other teams (particularly ND) and find out that there is a lighthouse-only crossing between the main continent and Lego's landmass. Then I'd support using the wonder prebuild for the Great Lighthouse, and using this wonder to contact Lego.

[Shiber]

Btw, good work on that illustration you sent to the common mailbox.

[DeepO]

Shiber, I don't think anyone is going to support sharing world maps with other teams.... the precise location of our luxuries and reseources, plus the tactical layout of our lands is much too important to give to others. We maybe able to exchange minimaps, but I doubt we'll exchange territory or world maps unless we're forced.

Ligthouse: main problem I see is that if Lego is isolated (and they see it, no need to guess it), they will focus on the lighthouse as well. It seems support for supersizing Hurricane is dropping, but we can be reasonably sure that if we now start on a wonder, and don't pump Hurricane's population, lego will build a wonder before us.

DeepO