Are we playing too conservatively?

[Shiber]

Very well. Sharing up-to-date minimaps will do the trick as well. In order to decide if the lighthouse is required to contact Lego, we only need to know how distant the landmasses are from one another.
As for the possibility that Lego may be building the lighthouse, perhaps we could contact them and arrange that we build the lighthouse in exchange that we contact them, sell them all the techs we have for half the beaker cost, and afterwards sell their contact to every other civ; or some other deal, the details don't matter, as long as they prefer to take it over building the lighthouse themselves.

[Harovan]

I won't completely repeat, what others already wrote, and I think everybody knows my position. I'm not at all against a good economical buildup, and I don't want to go for early military adventures, but to play the way our economists plan is in my opinion wrong. In a nutshell, their position is, let's rely on a minimal defense and our scouts. If we see Immortals or Galleys coming, lets begin a military buildup, connect the iron, suspend the research, upgrade some regular warriors (do they mean our only city defenders or our scouts in the north, who need many time to return), maybe switch a prebuild wonder to a military unit.

A worker needs 6 turns to connect the iron (1 to enter the mountain, 5 to build road), assuming he's close enough and doesn't need to cross a river. In the 7th turn we would be able to upgrade the first warrior. Attacking Immortals have outstanding roads to approach - our mountain ranges. One of them leads directly to our supposed wonder city and our only usable iron source. Wonderful.

Also, opinions like "nobody dares to attack us, we're Gathering Storm!" are not only arrogant, but highly dangerous. On the countrary, I expect us to be attacked because we are Gathering Storm, and most likely by an alliance. True, in the early stage we are now, an attack is not very likely yet. But from the moment on, when the main continent is settled completely, the risk jumps from very low to very high.

Reasons:
- None of the teams wishes us to get very far in the game. All they see us as potential danger. The earlier they wipe us out, the better for them.
- An early war on the main continent could with alliances get very devastating and would undoubtly hurt all involved teams severely. A common attack of our landmass would devastate us (the hated game favorite) and leave their land intact.
- Once the teams are out of the REX phase, they have the time and the resources to build barracks and military. We are blessed with a big landmass, but are ready to sacrifice a lot of our expansion capabilities to an unneeded wonder race. This sets us back yet more.

What we need is balance.
- Economy - yes!
- Expansion - yes!
- Military - yes!
- Wonders - maybe, but only, if we have resources left from the first 3 topics.

One barracks is by far not enough. Let's stop that wonder discussion and let Hurricane build a small, but fine rapid reaction force. At least 3 more veteran warriors. Let the connection of our iron and horses be a priority. Bring up some War Chariots. Give us some veteran Spearmen, to disrupt the way over the mountain ranges and force attackers into kill zones. Let's do this now. No ancient wonder is worth our security.

[Aeson]

I created a map in the editor from what we know of our landmass, and placed RP's capitol. It's hard to be sure of the exact nature of the coastline on their side (impossible more than 2 tiles from their capitol), but it does prove there is a Lighthouse crossing there.

I'm sending this comparison to the mailbox as well. I marked land, coast, and sea tiles as they likely are judging from their mini-map. The tile 6 from their capitol is almost certainly land given the shape of their cultural border in the original mini-map.

---------------------

I didn't mean to imply this was the only crossing, but it cuts off roughly 10-15 turns by boat, much of it through other team's coastal waters (which very likely wouldn't be tolerated), and completely bypasses our early warning system along the west coast. It would do the same for any warning system RP has as well. If a team on one side or another gets the Lighthouse, it could be a very big deal. For all intents and purposes, it increases the size of a possible invasion force by a factor of at least 10. (2 turns required round trip with lighthouse, 20-30 without).

RP certainly has continental concerns as do we, but that makes a suprise of this type even more effective. We could ally with a mainland team against RP if war does break out, or they could ally with Vox against us. The Lighthouse would be the major factor in how valuable such an alliance would be for either team.

[Aeson]

I'd just like to point out that this crossing (unless it turns out to be a galley crossing) isn't something RP could have noticed. They only have our capitol location, which isn't anywhere near our western coast so they have little to no idea where that is. This really favors us.

[nbarclay]

Is anyone else concerned about the outside chance that our iron might disappear if we hook it up before we're ready to make any significant use of it? I'll want to keep at least two workers reasonably close to the iron until it's hooked up, but the idea of actually hooking it up this long before we're ready to found a city by our other iron source (and before anyone else in the world has Map Making) makes me very nervous.

Nathan

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph
Also, opinions like "nobody dares to attack us, we're Gathering Storm!" are not only arrogant, but highly dangerous.

As I said in another post, other teams will not attack us unless they band together. Would you go all the way across the ocean, alone, leaving your own lands largely undefended, to get a shot at Gathering Storm, who does not appear weak and has WCs at its disposal? Further, would you throw the Great Lighthouse into your plans to ensure this would work, at a great investment wich hurts your early growth?

I'm assuming the answer to these questions, is 'no' based in the facts that 1) the main landmass is somewhat crowded, and 2) tensions are fairly high there. Of course, these two "facts" are second-hand reports, but I'm willing to go along with them for the moment.

Thus all our talk about the Great Lighthouse and adequate defense is based on pure fear for of the worst-case scenario. I belive this scenario is highly unlikely. Sure, Vox could be stockpililng gold for a one-turn Warrior upgrade (which we would be hard-pressed to defend against...no Horses as of yet), but we're willing to bet that will not happen anytime soon. Similarly fear of a big inter-continental attack are based on nothing more than fear at this point.

Now, if we get word the two teams on the mainland are banding together, that changes everything. In that case we would have good reason to believe an invasion to be far more likely. But this will not occur within the next 50 turns, IMO.

If playing conservative is the way we want to go, it is nonetheless not a bad option. But as I mentioned above (or elsewhere) we will have a lot of "useless" military units hanging around if an attack never comes. At that point I suggest we play unconservatively, and strike at Vox.


Dominae

[Dominae]

Aeson, could explain why you're sure there is a Sea crossing in the first place? Your editor shots show a possible scenario, but is it no possible that Ocean does in fact seperate our continents? I'm not so wise in the ways of the map generator myself.


Dominae

[DeepO]

Sir Ralph, I've been sounding the peaceful trumpet since the start of this game, but only as a counterbalance. For one, I've been supporting the our-continent strategy for the beginning: keep Vox happy until we can safely attack them, then take them out in one fast move. I still support that idea... I agree, that we need to build our econ to allow us some disadvantage (also referring to Theseus Pillars), we need a decent military to keep our econ safe, and in some way we need to be able to acquire research at a very decent pace. I fully agree that if we do not want to divert resources to a wonder, Hurricane would make a fine military city.

However, it's the timing that I don't fully agree with. Sure, we are at risk from an invasion, but no other civ as got MM yet. Further, they need to sail towards us, and as both Lux and ND have other things on their mind, the shortest path (apart from the crossing to RP) takes a considerable amount of time. Already, we're military far superiour to Vox, so for the moment they are not to worry about. I think we can both get a wonder up, keep expanding, and have enough spears and WCs ready before we're going to see the first galley on our coast. Certainly if EotS is now building a settler, ready to settle another fast growing barracks city. (Still nothing said about Tempest: the opinions on what to do with it are varying to say the least).

All this to put the finger on what has been buzzing in our forum for a few days now: how are we going to get that game-balance breaking thing. I'm confident we can keep our current position in the world without many problems for at least the next 50 turns or so, if we decide to do that. Indeed, it is very likely that we'll be facing an alliance against ourselves in this game, but at the moment, the other teams are too divided, or too close to us. So either we go for a pure military conquest style, or we try to get some other advantages elsewhere. We know we're very good in expansion, and in commerce relative to the rest of the world, so either rexing as crazy, or going for a research lead would be possible. Or, we transform some of this early growth into larger cities, for which the pyarmids certainly would be worth it. Or, we bend everything to the military side, where we use gold instead of beakers, and our expansion to generate more units then anyone can cope (best to have double the amount of units if we want to have a chance against an alliance). Or, we go for sea-dominance, for which the lighthouse would be welcome as well.

In all these scenarios, I see a lot of potential from wonders, not only because they will help us, but if we take them, the others can't surpass us. Without pyramids, no other team is going to outgrow us, that is simply not possible given our terrain. Without the lighthouse, no team is going to dominate the seas, if we set our mind to it. Etc, etc. If we would play a blend game because we fear invasions so early on (while they are high risk to everyone, both defenders and attackers), I fear we won't be able to pick our specialty, and excell in that.

One minor comment, though: I would have liked to get the horse roaded faster as well, it seems it is going to take another 10 or so turns in the current worker plan, mabe it's just an idea, but I would feel safer with the horsies hooked up.

Aeson:
Thanks for the analysis, in the past day more then a few good ideas have come from you, it really is a pleasure to have you around!
But this doesn't mean I agree with you. RPG is the team which has, so far, been most friendly to us, as well as to most other teams on their continents. They really are a trading nation, and keep good contacts with everyone. As a result, it would be extremely hard for us to attack them, without at least getting some diplomatic retaliations from the others. I've looked in their direction as well (as they are closer to us then Vox is, albeit over the seas) for future territory, but either we are so dominant we can take them out, and fend off a counterattack from GoW and Lux or ND, or we shouldn't start on it.

What's more, they seem to be one of the best researchers in the game, and could help us a lot better then Vox to get into the middle ages fast, leaving other teams behind. If we want to go for a tech-lead, RP is the team that can get it with us. Legoland are of course another possibility, but they are too isolated, so probably are not up to speed as compared with the rest of the teams.

Of course, the isolation and neutrality of RP has two sides, we can either leave them alone, seek a partnership with them and let them grow (counting on our growth to surpass theirs), or we can start to annoy them while they are still building up their defense. I would strongly favor to keep them as friends for a while, as long as our relation is friendly, RP will not be easily lured into an alliance against us. That doesn't mean we shouldn't plan for it, but given the grudge they hold against Lux, I think Lux has to go before RP will turn its attention towards us.
And even then, they are traders, not warmongers. If they get into a war, it is very likely that GoW will join on their side, doing most of the work for them.

So, as a diplomat and ambassador to RP, I'm inclined to not look aggresively into their direction to much, both not for defensive reasons, as for offensive reasons. While the lighthouse enabled crossing to their lands will be a powerful thing in both cases, I'm not sure they see it the same way... which of course makes it more viable as a surprise tactic from our side.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Damn, serious cross posting again... I need to type faster, or maybe less text

Nathan: I was thinking on keeping the iron unconnected for a while just to be able to produce some vet warriors, but this was really all I needed it unconnected for. Apart from that, connecting it early might be best, the risk of losing it is not that great, and even if it's not settled yet, we have a second source promised to us which can be connected in 20 turns or so. Not connecting it purely out of fear of losing it when we need it seems strange, as we'll need a couple of turns to connect it anyway, so if we need it urgently, we need it in the same turn, not in 3 turns time.

Dom,
True, we shouldn't simply look at defense when wanting to build the lighouse. But it has other advantages as well, like possibly being able to reach lego, increased speed for all our invasions, etc. It is most likely that before the lighthouse wears out, we have either attacked Vox, or someone on another continent, so it won't be lost. The possible protection against RP is but a smaller advantage, not something why we would need to build the GL.

DeepO

[Dominae]

How about we get a couple of Galleys in the water before deciding on the Great Lighthouse?

Gosh, I love prebuilds!


Dominae

[Shiber]

(Replying to Aeson's posts)
Good points all around, but I still think that by the time we'd want to attack the mainland, safe traversal of sea tiles will already be made possible. Whether it is worth the investment to build the lighthouse just to deprive the other civs of it is another question.
As for using the lighthouse to be the first to contact Lego, I'm not entirely sure that this would work. Lego is much closer to the other civs than us. If one of those civs decides to take a calculated risk, they could send a suicide galley on its way to Lego's estimated location. Even if three galleys sink on the way and only the fourth one makes it, it's still a good investment, and cheaper than building the lighthouse.

Btw, the 1 pixel variation between the two minimaps could be a result of a simple error by DeepO, who combined the minimaps. If you wish, I could send the separate minimaps that we received from each team to your private mailbox and you could check that out.

[alva]

Don't forget that there is always the possibility of using GOW as our defense.

[Shiber]

Originally posted by Dominae
Aeson, could explain why you're sure there is a Sea crossing in the first place?

It doesn't really matter. If there are in fact a few tiles of ocean in the crossing, we can hop over them (galleys can move through ocean tiles too). With the Great Lighthouse, what matters is the distance between our sea and RP's sea, not whether there are also ocean tiles in between.

Not that I'm pro-lighthouse of course.

[Dominae]

Ah yes, of course, Shiber. I've been playing the AU mod too much...


Dominae

[Aeson]

I am in favor of not connecting our Iron as of yet, and focusing mostly on WC production as our offensive capacity. Spearmen can force Immortals out of the mountains better than Swordsmen can (cheaper and have a 4.5 defense when fortified). They are also more effecient on Hills than Immortals are (20 shields for 3.5 defense vs 30 shields for 4 offense). On flats, the retreat plus lower cost of WC's make them more efficient than the Immortals. We need a good road system and well placed Spearmen to guarantee ourselves the initiative though.

I think the Pyramids + Lighthouse could both be available if we wish to pursue it. I very highly doubt RP would go for the Pyramids, as both the GL and Lighthouse are more important to them as far as making contact and catching up to speed. The Lighthouse is a big of a gamble for them if they can't see any other shore. If they can see the other shore (or the coast thereof) then it's a regular galley crossing and the Lighthouse becomes much less desireable. The exception is if the trading of mini-maps has given them proof of a Lighthouse only crossing. Without that, they may have to rely on suicide galleys to make contact even with the Lighthouse.

Once the GA starts from the Pyramids build, Hurricane at size 11 should be able to produce 25 shields a turn after corruption (more if we mine the Iron) which would mean the Lighthouse would take 12 turns or less to build.

Aeson, could explain why you're sure there is a Sea crossing in the first place?

Because of the mini-maps, we know where land is for sure (RP's capitol). Given the map generator's need to line land with coast, and coast with sea, that means we are almost certainly dealing with a crossing of no more than CSOOSC. A regular galley can safely cross CSSC but no more. A Lighthouse aided Galley can start and end on Sea, so their maximum crossing is CSOOOSC. This scenario is almost surely more narrow than that. Very likely at it's narrowest it is CSOSC, which puts it outside a regular Galley's range, but well within the range of a Lighthouse aided one. Until we move those Warriors out to check the beach, we can't rule out that the crossing is more narrow than that though.