Turn 30

[Harovan]

I don't think they rejected the trade deal. They put their part of the deal, Bronze Working, on the table (which they missed to do the first time) and just forgot to press "Agree" before pressing "Send". This is a technical mistake, it may be carelessness, but I can't see evil will. Even more, since they the same turn began to withdraw their scouts, for what reason ever.

I have no doubt, that both deals can and will come true. They already have agreed to it. If they want the guaranty, that the given away Iron Working won't be used offensive against them, we should give it. Anyway, a war between Vox and us in the ancient age would be idiocy. I also think, they will agree to a non-aggression pact, limited in time. They will understand, that such a pact can't last forever. But, to be honest, if I was VC and my (feared) neighbor would tell me "we guarantee, that we hope we won't fight wars for a long time, but we can't promise it", I would not very like this offer, at least compared with a period of safety and non-aggression, and be it limited in time.

Another opportunity, as I already said, we could agree, that each trade deal starts a 20 turn period of guaranteed non-aggression, from both sides. I don't see the fear, that they will take it as "Trade with us, or else", if we say at the same time, that the end of such a pact means not automatically war, and that trading is at the benefit of both sides. At the countrary, I think they'll be glad to have the opportunity to control our "aggressiveness" (I think they fear us, after all) by offering us trade deals. Without such an agreement, they could always fear our attack the turn after the deal.

Also, for future trade deals it would be possible to open a "tech point account" at both sides, because it will be increasingly harder to make deals or techs at equal cost. This could be done through a general trade agreement.

What sense would it have made to wait? Wait, for what? For you to appear and to tell me what to do? Thanks, but what would you have told me? We can't hold the turn forever, and to wait till the negotiations with Vox ended, can't be the solution. Neither can be to halt our research till this time. Because this can take very long.

[nbarclay]

Vox took their turn after they sent their conditions but long before we gave our response. So what they appear to have done was put their deal on the table for us to accept but left open the possibility of their canceling the deal if they were not satisfied with our response. I don't think their failure to accept our deal before we agreed to their conditions was an accident. Not evil; just keeping their options open.

In regard to saying that their giving us iron working won't be used against them, how would you put it? We certainly aren't going to promise never to attack them with swordsmen, are we? And saying, "We won't attack you with swordsmen until we would have gotten Iron Working anyhow" sounds to me too much like we're saying we very possibly will attack not long after that time. That's why I chose to focus on our defensive intent: anything else I could come up with seemed either ambiguous or potentially threatening.

I also don't find it reassuring that Vox didn't come back quickly and say that our assurances were adequate. Suppose Vox cancels the deal entirely (which would, based on what we've said is acceptable to us, be the honorable alternative to accepting the entire two-stage deal). We've lost a turn's gold from the Bronze Working research, and we have to throw away another turn's gold from Alphabet or else wait a long, long time before we can get Iron Working on our own. That could hurt us a whole lot worse than holding up our research and banking gold for another turn would.

You've basically committed us to a rather high-stakes gamble, much higher-stakes than the gamble I proposed a turn ago when I wanted to put research on hold so we could keep the possibility of our trade deal open. I just hope it pays off.

In regard to the more distant future, I can really see only two possibilities. Either we and Vox work together in a close partnership built on trust and mutual interests, or we take Vox out. Arrangements based on what Vox would almost have to view as extortion might work as a way to get some tech advantage out of them until we're ready to take them out, but if we go that route, we would have no real choice but to conquer Vox before we could safely attempt any other conquests.

Nathan