The ND threat.

[DeepO]

Okay, just an attempt to focus all info in one thread. This discussion is spreading out over several threads, and while that is only normal, let's try to keep the main discussion in here, so we don't lose things.

This thing has started with last turn thread, but most urgently, this thread gave us the numbers on ND's growing marine force.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Okay, so a few questions which we need to address. Add as you see fit, of course.

1. Is ND going to attack us?
I don't think anyone really doubts this. Marines for GoW could be possible, but doesn't seem logical. Taking out Vox is also strange (but would require marines).
However, we do not see the massive buildup that would be expected if invasion is imminent. They do not have enough bombers to pummel our defenses to 1 hp MI, they do not have a navy worth mentioning. There is a very good possibility this is just a ruse. They know we are monitoring them, so it could be that they set all non-critical cities on marine construction, forcing us to build troops, while they keep their main cities on a path to SS.

[DeepO]

2. What do they want to accomplish?
If they spend too much resources on a full out war, GoW is going to win. If they don't spend enough, they risk us coming after them for honor. There is no way ND is going to think a 1 vs 1 war against us uis going to be easy.
If it is a 2 vs 1 war, there is very little we can do, except put on a good show.

If they want to clip us like our intention was with Lego, they would need more bombers.

If they want to go for domination, they know that Legoland is going to be easily conquered... all they would need apart from that is some more territory on Bob, or e.g. on Estonia. If they take Legoland by surprise, GoW has no way to react the first turn. Maybe GoW is in on this, but will get double crossed later on... with Legoland in ND's hands for one turn, the game is basically over.

DeepO

[DeepO]

3. Assuming they are coming for Stormia, where are they going to strike, and how can we prevent it?
I think this is obvious. Their best bet is RP at the moment.

So, the question becomes: can we make it more difficult for them to conquer RP?
I think we've got an opening here, but we might need to be fast. We can argue with GoW that they still owe us ~15 turns of rubber. We only have 1 source... but if RP has rubber, they can upgrade their infs to MIs. It would also make it possible for us to test the waters with GoW. If we put together a nice message to them, asking if they could provide RP with rubber, as we have paid for it, but aren't receiving any, we know where they stand.

RP off Stormia is another option, and it would make our life easier. However, this also means we need to spread our defenses over more cities. Not Good. We don't have the units right now.

I was thinking on MPPing RP in game, but it would create another problem: when ND (or GoW) attacks RP, we declare war automatically... ND receives the ww bonus instead of us. We could prevent this by blockading the RP harbor with subs, so they have to go through us before being able to attack ND...

DeepO

[DeepO]

4. what do we want to achieve when under attack?
I think most will agree we can't handle 2 civs attacking us. we can last for a couple of turns if we play well, but there simply is no option to stay in the game. Personally, I do not like the Lego-option either, we have every reason to be proud of what we have done, and ending the game hiding in transports on the poles is simply not worthy of us.

So, what can we achieve? We can carve up our territory, and make it hard for ND to attack us, but in case we're relatively certain we will fall, I think there is another option which is better: Take the fight to their land. Pillage all we can to keep ND from advancing in our territory, and load a couple of marines, and loads of settlers and tanks over to their side. In their territory, we will hurt them, most likely forcing them to retreat. I think, that if we can pull that off, we will probably force them to pack everything again, and head home, or face a certain loss (to GoW). It might be our best defensive strategy.

Further, there is the navy question. ND does not have a navy. Can we keep them from landing if we want? Can we make certain we control the sea, and perhaps sink most of their transports before they can land? It would be a lot easier than having to deal with them later on...

DeepO

[DeepO]

5. in case things go bad, what are we going to do?
I mean, assume we lose half our cities, do we have an option of e.g. packing all troops in boats, and give all cities to e.g. Vox (or Lego for all I care), meanwhile fighting our last battle on Bob?

DeepO

[DeepO]

6. What can we do diplomatically?
RP is one point, but what about the rest. Do we try to get Lego on our side? Can we count on any help from Vox? What about GoW?

I like the rubber-for-RP idea, not because it's mine (well, a little ), but most importantly because it might give us something to discuss with GoW. The best we can get is that GoW is going to stay out of all this, and pick up the crumbs, or move in when ND and us are exhausted from the war. The worst is obviously that they join with ND. Somewhere in between, we should have some negotiaions possibilities, right?

DeepO

[DeepO]

7. Lego...
There is a problem with Lego. We don't want to move all our ships out of position to kill them swiftly. However, if we don't you can bet that they are going to invade us whenever ND is going to attack us. We do not want another nation joining. So, how are we going to deal with this?

- go for the kill asap, before ND is strong enough to attack us?
- retreat most of our Lego hunters, protecting our own coast?
- lure Lego closer (this might give us a good indication when D-day is, as they will very likely invade us either on ND's D-day, or 1 turn later), kill them when they're closer?
- something else?

DeepO

[DeepO]

8. What about our Legoland territory?
do we spend any resources on this? Also, we might get in the position very quickly that if they don't attack us, they sever our road to Vox. Without that, no resources, nor lux...

If at all possible, I would start at least preparing for drafting here. Hum... that should be number 9...

DeepO

[DeepO]

9. Drafting
I'm in favour of drafting, big time. Sure, those are conscripts, but ND and GoW can use bombardment and artillery fire to get all our troops down to 1 hp. A conscript at 1 hp is just as good as a vet at 1 hp. And by creating a static defense, we could create some problems for them, so they can't gain too much territory at once.

DeepO

[DeepO]

10. Happiness
Another of our problems. With the Bobians declaring war on us, we're going to miss 6 lux at once. Further, depending on where they are landing, they can take out one of our own lux too... very quickly, we're going to run into problems.

Add to this possible drafting, and we might find ourselves on 50% slider very quickly, certainly if we are forced to attack ND if they attack RP and stop just short of our city gates.

There is one plus: we're religious. And monarchy means that the defense we've got in individual cities can function as police... plus it keeps the costs down. We can't draft in anarchy, but that is not going to cost us a lot of troops, we simply need to watch out when we draft...

DeepO

[DeepO]

this is about it for the moment... more to follow when I think of it.

Aeson, if you've got any defense plans, please post them (there is a thread somewhere around where we started on this). I can't do it right now, maybe in a couple of days. However there is a chance I'll be leaving on a last minute holiday this Sunday... if so I can't do anything for GS for at least the next 2 weeks (I've got to apply for jobs in the mean time )

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

probably been mentioned, but we can ferry over conscripts to lego to go barb hunting.

[Aeson]

~5 turns and we'll have a sentry net S from Lego, S from Stormia, and across from RP to Vox, with the interior verified surface ship free, that will allow us to run very low defense on the E coast away from the N and S edges.

ND doesn't have enough navy to get to RP. We have several more BB and Subs coming online in the next couple turns. Within the next 3-4 turns I think we can have enough present to sink ND's fleet with 1 turn exposure, which they have to have to reach us. It would be 2-3 turn exposure to get to RP and if they headed out right now I think we could sink their 12 Transports before they got there.

Even if ND concentrates on Navy, we have more coastal production, especially local, so could conceivably keep that advantage until support costs stop us.

[Aeson]

ND may be planning to take out RP. If they have Lego's vote, and Lego has Vox's vote, ND wins if the vote is called and RP is gone. I can see how Vox would agree with Lego how to vote, and Lego would vote against GS and GoW.

I really don't like the Diplomatic option. I wouldn't want to win with it, and certainly don't want to lose to it. I think we can build the UN, needing only 8 turns to build it. That means ND or GoW would have to have at least 142spt to beat us. The cost to us is 8 MI at this point. I think we should build it. The only question I have is if the mobilization bug is helping us in Tempest? (And if it is helping GoW too...)