Turn 243: 1265 AD

[OPD]

It's the tanks that'll really screw you, that and the pretty much guarenteed promotions for all units. If it was just the Infs it might be doable but even the Cav's in ambeiele have a 43% chance of winning on def...

The marines perform better defending against tanks in the open even if down to 3 HP after art bombing.

If you do manage to take a city with Marines, Iwa Jima might be a good name considering the amount of Marines that would be lost taking it.

[DeepO]

Great tool, vmxa

55M, against 20 I for 1000 runs gives 97.9% chance Lego will win.

55M, against 18 I for 1000 runs gives 90% chance Lego wins.

55M, against 16 I gives 63.9% Lego wins.

It's close, as you can see, but Quanto is out of the question, I fear. 50% loss ratio I can live with, but >90% loss ratio? Too much risk for me.

I think I might find a way of using this tool in a bit more detail, so we can have the effect of 55M against 10I and 10 T.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Forget about computing that combined combat, the art always screw things up. Without them, I get something close to 99% chance of defeat. But I'm doubting the method I use...

DeepO

[Aeson]

Marines are only 6 Defense right? So the Tanks will be defending before they do.

We can land 12 MI, 22 I, 39 M (8 to be disbanded for chaining purposes), 68 T, 5 S on Quanto 21 right? It might be enough for Lego to only bombard, and not attack.

It will take about 3-4 Art to get each MI out of the way. That only leaves about 1 per Inf, which would get about 1/3 of our Inf out of the way. Our M and T should still be intact.

Then ~30 Tanks for Lego against 14 Inf. Our M and T shouldn't have to face more than 10-15 Tanks at most. That's 5-7 Tanks dead, and a few more that will be low HP next turn. Leaving us with around 55 Tanks and 5 Settlers to play with next turn. Maybe more if the 2/4 MI show up between the I and T?

I think that this is probably what we should do.

[vmxa1]

It makes more sense and IF GoW lands or trys an invasion of a city, Lego will have other things to worry about.

They will not be in a position to roll every art and unit on thier soil to hit us, if GoW is in the equation.

The problem with any tools is it is just a run of the RNG and does not have to be the case at all. Better than nothing, but in atual play things could be who knows what.

[vmxa1]

In the original manual Marines are 10/8, not sure if that has changed over the patches and such. I just don't use them.

Now we are going to wish we had a few less marines and more tanks and MI.

[Aeson]

If we land and have 55 Tanks available to hit Quanto next turn, and they up Quanto to 25 defenders (should easily be able to do this...), we can only take it 30% of the time, with very few Tanks with movement left. That will be the end for us I think, bunker down and Lego will chip away. We won't have any Tanks to do anything with for at least another turn.

55 Tanks vs 25 defenders in Abilene would give us 72% to take the city. Still not much left to do any other work with.

5 Settlers can get us 5 tiles inland. 7 would give us a range of 7 tiles before initial attack. 55 16.8.8 units could do a lot of damage elsewhere...

So I think we should bring 2 Settlers and 6 MI over, land everything but Marines on Quanto 21. Swap the Marines from N Transports to S Transports. All S fleet DD not clearing for Subs attack Lego's navy down there. If bad luck ensues, land the Marines, else keep them afloat. Move the S Transports 222. Shore bombardment be damned! If Lego uses Artillery to hurt our Transports, at least our Marines are "defending" the main stack. We may have a couple DD defending, and will have 3 empty Transports along with the 5 filled with Marines.

That allows us to hit Tip with up to 39 Marines next turn. That way they can't focus as much on defending other cities.

[DeepO]

Marines are 8/6/1, yes. Somehow I thought they were 8 defense.

It's a pity, but I don't see another option than landing in the open. Preferably on hill or in a fortress... how do we scout: move a TR with M into view, or use the fighter? With 2 fighters nearby, we will have 2 less bombers to worry about. Maybe we kill them, maybe not, but at least bombers couldn't get to the MI / I / T. If the carriers survive long enough, of course.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Hmmm... sounds like a plan. We could create another fork on Abilene and Tipperary, needing more defenders in those cities. It will be a bloody thing, though... Abilene was already building another DD, so that is one TR down, no matter if we destroy the stack in the South or not.

However... we might have some protection from empty transports. And 2 more DDs are getting closer, which might be sub sweepers next turn.

This starts to look good. One remark: we do not know the situation on Q21... we might have to fight our way onto land.

DeepO

[Aeson]

Use one of the 3/4 DD in the S fleet. Move it 69888. Then the other 3/4 DD moves or 66221. That leaves us 3 4/4 DD to take out some of Lego's DD down S. S urvivors could get to Abilene 41, which would allow them to cover the Transports if they moved to that tile too. We will be able to outrun Lego's BB now with those Marines and keep them a threat.

[Aeson]

I doubt they would have more than 1-2 units at Quanto 21, but yes, we may have to use some Marines to get onto land.

The new DD may go for the unprotected N fleet Transports, and we should have at least a 3/4 DD covering the S fleet. Probably a 3/4 and 2/4 to go along with it.

[Aeson]

The biggest flaw in the plan is that Lego can bombard Roads and Rails around our Tank stack. If they do that, we don't get attacked as hard, but can't move much either.

[DeepO]

They don't have to bombard, they can pillage with cavs. After attacking us even... which wuold make our settlers useless.

I'll move the 1st 3/4 DD 69 to see Q21.

DeepO

[DeepO]

erhm... one second. I only moved it 6, but there are "a few" units in that fortress. I'll count...

DeepO

[Theseus]

Waitwaitwait... ****E, sorry I wasn;t around today!!

First thing: Are we sure Arty zero-bombard amphib attacks?