Turn 243: 1265 AD

[DeepO]

Tanks off board is better. But still it leaves our settlers vulnerable

DeepO

[DeepO]

If we land in the open, there is another possibility. What about Q 77? With 2 settlers, it would fork on Quanto and Sando. Add the Marine threat on Abilene and Tipperary down S, and Lego has to split its defenses over 4 cities.

I'm not sure it's feasable, though, to get the M out of harms way.

DeepO

[Theseus]

Ah... so ,any empty Transports left over, we can hide whatever we want?

[Aeson]

We could rename the Settlers to Workers. (j/k)

Our Transports (the S ones) shouldn't be hit at all if we land on Abilene 87 though, right?

If we land more than 1 Settler, they're going to start thinking about what the extras are for. They'll almost certainly cut the roads from our landing anyways, but no need to give them more reason to do it than necessary.

[DeepO]

Yes, with Abilene 87, no BB can attack a full TR. The new DD from Abilene we can't do anything about, of course.

Landing with more settlers: not really. We might use them next turn, or the one there after, or the one after that... it would make sense at this moment to land them, and pick them up later. They will be safer on land than on sea.

We could use a few at sea, to not give too much away

DeepO

[Theseus]

Then the number of troops landed should be determined by a backwards count of what can remain totally safe on board the ships, and what mis-image we want to portray to Lego.

[DeepO]

We will at least lose 1 TR, of the 8 we've got. If Lego's smart (and so far we have no reason to believe otherwise), they will bombard the 1st, or even the first 2 TRs. I think we can assume that we need at least 4 empty TRs either covering the stack, or blocking the way to the stack from Southern threats.

Oh, and we will need all we can to destroy the Lego Deep S attackers.

DeepO

[Theseus]

I've been reading a lot about Alexander lately... some basic thoughts come to mind:

*Show / hide. Hide / show.

* Two main elements, the rest are secondary: 1) one to hold them in place, and yet also to force a set defense to move in some/any way (the phalanx); 2) the devastating strike (the cavalry).

[DeepO]

BTW, I took a look at GoW's side. Lego has pillaged a fortress, right in between Dye fields and Jackson. GoW could still land on a hill, but I think that the fork between the two cities is their best option. Further, their Marines can continue South, so they fork between Zargonia and Dye fields.

Doing so will increase our chances: Lego won't be able to leave any of the 6 cities undefended, even if they cut roads. Which means we'll have a target of ~15 I in each city, not ~25.

DeepO

[Aeson]

I think my previous numbers were for on flatlands too, not with a Fort (10% defense bonus):

Artillery vs MI:

12 MI
Expected HP lost per bombardment .43
24 HP to get to Infantry (MI at 2/4)
55.8 Artillery bombardments to get to Infantry. (Allows that some of the bombardments that go for 2 HP will end up hitting 3/4 MI)

Artillery vs Infantry:

10 Artillery, 24 Infantry
Odds to hit 52.2%
6 Infantry hit. 18 Infantry full health.

Bombers vs Infantry:

2 Bombers, 24 Infantry
Odds to hit?
1 Infantry hit. 17 Infantry full health.

Tanks vs Infantry

~30 Tanks. 17 Infantry.
Odds to kill 69.6%.
17 Infantry hit or killed. 5 Tanks killed. ~8 Tanks left to move.

Tanks vs Tanks

~8 Tanks(L). 68 Tanks(GS).
Odds to kill 79.2%, odds to blitz kill 41%.
10 Tanks(GS) killed. 5 Tanks(L) killed. (If they blitz every time.)
7 Tanks(GS) killed. 1 Tank(L) killed. (If they don't blitz at all.)

So we should have 58-61 Tanks for next turn if they hit us with most or all of their Tanks and Artillery and ignore GoW. They could kill some more Tanks with Cavalry too. More useful for them to seed Tank builds with them though.

[Aeson]

Originally posted by DeepO
We will at least lose 1 TR, of the 8 we've got. If Lego's smart (and so far we have no reason to believe otherwise), they will bombard the 1st, or even the first 2 TRs. I think we can assume that we need at least 4 empty TRs either covering the stack, or blocking the way to the stack from Southern threats.

Oh, and we will need all we can to destroy the Lego Deep S attackers.

DeepO

We can move the Transports to Abilene 411 and be out of range of land based bombardment. Plus cover with the 3 4/4 DD survivors. And if I'm reading things right we only need 1 3/4 DD to be scouting, so the other will be on the stack too.

Should mean those Transports are basically safe. Lego Subs (or maybe some DD's we haven't seen) being the unknown. Even if they bombard 2 of our DD's, attack with their 4/4 DD... that leaves them with Subs and a 1/3 DD to take out 1 DD and 2 empties before they start sinking units. So they'd need at least 3 Subs (or unseen DD's) within range.

[DeepO]

Does that take into account blitzing of Lego tanks against infantry?

DeepO

[DeepO]

Abilene 411 is within bombardement range, it's Abilene 441 you want. We will need to attack the stack, but that should be not too much of a problem, and leftover attackers can defend the stack.

DeepO

[DeepO]

I'm off to bed, it's becoming 5 am here

DeepO

[Aeson]

They'd probably save the Tanks that won against our Inf (3.4 3/4 Tanks, 2 4/4) to attack against the Tanks if they were going to be blitzing. They would kill 5 more of our Tanks if they did.

Not sure if they will want to blitz at all though. It will leave them out in the open, which they have to cover with Inf, meaning they take Inf off road and giving us far better odds of killing them than if they stay fortified and in cities.