RP 10bc situation

[asleepathewheel]

Did we get pics after movement, or are they on Togas' website?
(BTW, that would kill Shiber, wouldn't it? To put that stuff on a geocities page, talk about unsecured!)

[FrustratedPoet]

/edit: nevermind, I'm dumb

[FrustratedPoet]

Originally posted by asleepathewheel
Did we get pics after movement, or are they on Togas' website?
(BTW, that would kill Shiber, wouldn't it? To put that stuff on a geocities page, talk about unsecured!)

You can't direct link images from a geocities page anyway so putting them up there would be kind of pointless.

[Aeson]

If they do go for Z, they probably take it. It also will pretty much end their offensive (they take Vigo too). I can't see how the 2 Vet Pikes from P would have helped anything other than giving ND shots at 2 Pikes at the best percentages possible for ND. No reason to wait for a Pike to get into a size 7 city with walls and fortify before killing it. They would open their Ansars they used up for counter attacks, but a dead Pike, uncovered RP Med Inf (or 2 if ND retreats), and dead ND Ansar is worth more to ND than an alive RP Pike and Med Inf (or two) in Z and an alive ND Ansar.

I think it would have been suiciding 2 Pikes.

-------------------

While the averages Vulture points out are correct, the unit counts aren't. RP had a Reg Pike in Leon (it may have been Vet, but I think they sent a Reg from Z and kept all the Vets in Z), and the Elite Sword. Neither was fortified as Leon had no units in it at the start of the turn. There was a Reg Pike at Santiago 6 they had to go through crossing the river, and a Reg Med Inf at Santiago 2. Neither fortified.

(from ND's perspective)
S2 odds: 87%
S4 odds: 65%
L(P) odds: 75%
L(S) odds: 70%

It looks pretty clear that the Reg Med Inf at S2 was killed by the injured Vet Ansar. The Elite Ansar looks to be new, as it couldn't have won a fight and still got to that position while the Vet Ansar had anything to fight and get to that position. The Elite could have been the Ansar they used to capture Santiago though. Another possibility is that the injured Vet was the unit which killed the Pike in the river crossing, and the Elite was upgraded while losing no hp's while fighting the Reg Med Inf. It doesn't make much sense though, as you'd expect the injured Ansar to be in Santiago, and the full health Ansar that took Santiago to help cover the Elite.

So I think we are looking at at least 11 Ansars.

Given the 4 fights at 65-87% odds each fight, expected should be 1 Ansar killed or retreated, 4 at various states of injured, 2 of which couldn't have reached Leon, and one of which is at S2.

If ND only has 11 Ansars in the theater, that would mean:

2 Ansars at S2, 1 wounded.
2 Ansars at L7 or further back, wounded.
6 Ansars in L, 1 wounded.
1 Ansar either took S, or if the Elite did, is in L.

It's a rather rough estimate, but I would have expected ND to have 4-5 Ansars we haven't seen. So 3-4 more could possibly have joined the ones in Leon without us seeing them. 7-11 Ansars in Leon, only 1 which would be wounded.

[Aeson]

Actually, it was a Vet Pike in Leon. So L(P) would be 60%.

It increases the chances that ND had another Ansar retreat or die, but isn't enough difference to change the expected outcome. Certainly isn't enough difference to change the 'best' outcome from ND's perspective, which is what we have to prepare for IMO.

[Arrian]

Damn, ND did what they should have - they charged.

I think RP is pretty well screwed...

What's in Zaragoza & Pamplona?

-Arrian

[Aeson]

10 Pikes, 6 Med Inf, 7 Cats, 3 Horses in Pamplona. Not really sure what's in Z. A cat, 4 Pikes and 3 Med Inf or something like that.

RP is actually in pretty good shape right now considering. They've been smart and not lost many units. Now ND is the one spread out too much. If ND tries to blitz Z or P and doesn't get mighty lucky, they are finished in Spain. If they sit still, it's just a matter of time.

A lot of how difficult this will be depends on what GoW does, but at this point I can't see us losing the war (or RP being lost) unless Lego joins in soon.

[Aeson]

BTW, ND didn't do what they should've done. They should've offered us ~80 tiles on Bob.

[Shiber]

The Trident city may well be just a feint for all we know.
But from what we know, if I understand correctly, there is no way that ND can launch any kind of serious attack on Pamplona on their next turn, and therefore would probably go for Zaragoza, right?

[notyoueither]

It looks a lot like ND want to blitz RP. GoW could have investigated Pamplona and informed ND that there were only 2 pikes and a horse in the city. We hope that causes ND to attack it.

Will they properly factor in the army from Toledo? Would Lego or Vox have noticed Inchon and informed GoW and ND? We don't know. We hope they charge.

[asleepathewheel]

Looks like GoW is setting up a backstab of epic proportions. They sit back while the ND army gets decimated and then roll up whats left. I can't imagine ND is too pleased at this point, and they certainly won't be pleased when they lose half their army if they attack this turn.



Wonder if anyone noticed Inchon. I would bet...not. Vox held the save for a while, but that could just have been them figuring out what to do in their new homeland. Plus they don't have any business over here, so why would they check? Unless they were surveying the cities changing hands on bob and just happpened to notice it....
Lego held the save 2 hours. I doubt they saw it either.

[notyoueither]

Received from Togas.

Position of RP army after 10bc moves:

Toledo: 5 Inf, 4 Pikes

Madrid: 1 pike, 1 inf

Pamplona: 6 pikes, 1 horse

Zaragoza: 4 pikes, 6 inf, 1 cat

Inchon: 2 horse, 7 cats

Vigo: 1 pike

Iron 7 of Vigo: 1 pike

Mtn 2-3 of Vigo: 1 pike, 1 spear

Salamanca: 1 pike

Mtn 7-7 of Salamanca: 1 spear


in the southlands: 1 spear, 1 warrior, 1 pike

[Theseus]

I'm confused... were we not gifted Toledo?

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Theseus
I'm confused... were we not gifted Toledo?

Yes, that was from the end of the RP turn, before we were gifted the city. so just put those units in P. unfortified, along with 2 horses and 7 more cats

[Theseus]

Well, f*cking hell then, Pamplona is looking pretty!