The RP PR Situation

[Arrian]

For the record, I would have much preferred to have been able to land our troops prior to ND & GoW discovering our backing of RP. Unfortunately, we were not gonna get there in time, so we didn't have much choice...

Still, the enemy if forewarned. I hate it when that happens.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

Having GoW stay out of it is optimal of course... and I don't see this forcing them to be our enemy. They aren't in position to do any more than expected before we gain numbers superiority, so I don't see the drawback in the E.

In the W, ND probably wouldn't change tactics, but if they did, it would most likely to be more cautious. That means taking fewer RP cities, as if we show up with 10 Knights... they lose their Ansars if they don't wait for their Pikes. Even though we only have 3 Knights, we could still take their Ansar's "blitzing" capability away very quickly (roughly halving their numbers at even odds if they outstrip their Pikes). RP could then deal with them.

[DeepO]

The problem I have with giving away our numbers is that it will signify to GoW that their core is safe for the moment. If we're commiting that kind of numbers South, we won't have too much up North... For the moment I wouldn't tell them, to keep the threat to their territory more real.

But, in case we want to invade them up North, we should tell them. I think their slowmovers are roughly 4 turns away from Bilbao (counting the tiles in ND territory, given a RoP), which was also part of the reason they went for Bilbao instead of pushing ahead on Toledo. That also leaves them 2 turns from their core... it would be interesting to see if they turn back or not, no matter if the NAP gets violated

DeepO

[Aeson]

I'd just like to point out the 'suprise' is going to come by GoW seeing our troops up in the Mountains after taking Toledo. Likely they'd see this in 3 turns. We couldn't attack anyways, as they'd have a cultural buffer, and our Knights are better served playing 6+ defense on a Mountain than attacking and surely dying.

We aren't going to gain any tactical advantage from it, because if GoW attacks (and ND does it's thing in the E), there really is only one way it can play out. They end up with their Riders in one spot, there is only one possible target in that timeframe (Bilbao and then Toledo, as Bilbao is 'on the way' there, and nothing else can be reached).

Even if they did split up, the results would be the same. We wouldn't have enough Knights to kill even half a stack, and still would need to play defensively until the second wave arrives.

[Theseus]

I still wouldn't want to tell them... our production advantage, when the other teams start to think about it, is our most powerful weapon. Not only can we out-produce everybody else... we can make them fearful that we have built up even more than we have.

[asleepathewheel]

Looks like we have bought some time in the east. Looks to me that they are 3 turns from attacking toledo now.

What's the next move there? If z. falls or is severely weakened, I think RP should gift us toledo to get those units back to the western front.

How many turns until our units are sitting in toledo, or in the adjacent region?

[notyoueither]

GoW chatted with. No information relayed about numbers or timing.

If they tell the truth, then Toledo is saved and RP can *blip* those forces to Pamplona.

We arrive in Toledo with our main force the turn after GOW can get there, unfortunately. We can beat them into Toledo with knights. However, maybe they will mill about a little and will not move their stack of 9 right...

[notyoueither]

Worst case:

GoW 1: All riders unite at Bilbao 4 7 7

GS 1: Landing near NM.

GoW 2: Rider stack moves to Toledo 8 9

GS 2: Infantry move to Toledo 2 3. Knights could occupy Toledo.

GoW 3: ???

[Theseus]

Hmmm... perhaps a Galley threat somewhere in the north would slow them down by one turn.

[Aeson]

Z won't fall this turn at least, RP has more units in there than there are Ansars to threaten it (at least in the initial stack).

Leon will fall if ND hits it, and that would give ND access to hit Pamplona. In that case, RP would have to give up Toledo to get enough troops into Pamplona to guarantee it doesn't fall. We have to force this if it happens, as our Cats need the protection.

Us having Toledo means that GoW (who says they'll respect the NAP) is roughly 8 turns out of the picture. It should be very well timed for RP to deal with.

Us hitting ND being 'serious'... wonder if they have a MPP? If they do, they'd be forced to choose which deal to honor. Given what GoW said (which we can't pass along, but can hint at "GoW said they don't plan on going to war with us"), convincing RP to give us Toledo should be a easier.

[asleepathewheel]

Great Job, NYE. I can't believe they didn't attack.

Hmm. so what do we do when they threaten another RP town, say pamplona, do we block them? Do we move west to take the brunt of the ND assault so RP can handle the riders? Luckily that is five? or six? or even more turns down the road.

[DeepO]

ND will either go for Vigo or Zaragoza, depending on if they want to keep their stack defended or not. I hope they go for Zara... otherwise our efforts will amount to not so much.

GoW is going for Toledo, but if I count right, they have to wait one more turn to let their slowmovers catch up. If there are slowmovers coming, of course, which is far from certain.

If they don't wait, RP can either gift Toledo to us next turn (meaning we'll lose it in case GoW breaks our NAP anyway), or they can defend it with all their might, and have a good chance of holding it. If they wait, we would be best to take control of Toledo, put our complete stack in there, and see what happens. RP is going to need to accept that they will temporaryly give most of their important cities to us for their own protection...

BTW, if ND is attacking Leon, that will mean they have crossed our borders, would that be an implicit declaration of war?

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Aeson
Us having Toledo means that GoW (who says they'll respect the NAP) is roughly 8 turns out of the picture. It should be very well timed for RP to deal with.

Us hitting ND being 'serious'... wonder if they have a MPP? If they do, they'd be forced to choose which deal to honor. Given what GoW said (which we can't pass along, but can hint at "GoW said they don't plan on going to war with us"), convincing RP to give us Toledo should be a easier.

8 turns. wow. great news. Looks like GoW is becoming Vox: redux.

Can we ask GoW point blank if they have an MPP with ND? They probably have something more than that, it just only goes to RP actions, not GS. They obviously know that they are going to have to decide which to favor, but I think it best to wait to force the issue until we have our army over there.

[DeepO]

a GoW-ND MPP? Now that would make sense... however us attacking ND in RP's territory doesn't fit the normal trigger for a MPP

DeepO

[DeepO]

sigh... and another dp. I wonder why these happen so frequently to me the last few days.