The RP PR Situation

[Octavian X]

As the rest of Apolyton finds out what we're doing with RP, we're gonna find ourselves under fire. Let's face it: ND and GoW aren't exactly expecting it, and they won't exactly be showering us in compleaments.

We should plan a few public announcements to explain, partially, what we're doing and why (in vague detail, of course). My hope is that something, in comparison to our usual silence, will at least help fight the inevitable negative turn in public opinion.

Thoughts?

[Aeson]

I was thinking that we should have a rather frank discussion with GoW. We aren't at war yet, but very likely will be by their choice. The points for the talk would be:

1. We are declining their invitation to join against RP.

2. We will be receiving certain RP cities which were threatened militarily. Those cities are in our custody now, and there may be other cities in the future if the need arises.

3. We understand the difficult position this puts GoW in, given the geography and RP's willingness to gift cities rather than lose them to GoW. We are planning for the worst (being attacked by GoW), and hoping for the best (being left alone).

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The main purpose would be to inform GoW of what they would find out anyways once they get the save. Also to give them a hazy enough picture that they don't know quite what to expect from us. I really wouldn't mind giving them a rough description of what our landing force will be though... something like, "we plan on being able to outnumber GoW forces in the theater by the next turn. Subsequent landing of forces will be regular and of a like number."

We want GoW to be hesitant, and have as much of a chance to back down as possible. GoW/ND have certainly underestimated our capability to land troops quickly, as made obvious by the "keep what you take" suggestion being made as a joke. By the time they can make it to NM... we would outnumber GoW by more than 2 to 1, not even counting the 7 Cats we are sending across. If GoW realizes they will quickly be outnumbered, hopefully they will be more likely to draw off. Right now they are probably thinking in 'their' terms... that we may be able to land 6-8 units in a few turns.

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ND we could handle similarly, but we may actually want them to attack us now. If GoW doesn't attack us, we almost definitely want ND to.

[Shiber]

No public announcements, please
Let's have a joint chat with GoW and ND, and simultaneously discuss the matters in a private channel with GoW, while making sure that they understand that we are not discussing things separately with ND as well, only with them. Inform them, give them special treatment and they'll feel more than welcome to back down, maybe even turn on ND.

[Harovan]

I don't think we want GoW turn against ND.

What we really want is either, that they honor the NAP and this way we turn against ND and let RP handle the GoW (may be with little assistance by blocking them with gifted cities), or they attack us and it's a 2 vs 2, even though RP won't be able to contribute with much more than intel and a few occasional hits.

I support Aesons approach. Let's go public. A chat would look too much like an excuse (what for? Their insulting negotiation habit?) and won't really help us. And no, we should not give the GoW a special treatment.

[DeepO]

Do we need to make it a 3-way chat? I'd prefer 2 2-way chats, or a chat with GoW and a PM to ND. Last 3-way didn't go well, but that is kind of normal with 3 different agendas

I'm not so sure GoW will backstab ND. They may try to keep us friendly, but turning on ND? Not so likely as RP makes it believe.

And no fears, Aeson. ND will most certainly attack us. Perhaps not this turn, and we should expect some surprises (e.g. invasion of Stormia), but they can't back down: they made it very clear they don't want us here, and we went against their wishes at the gravest extent possible.

Oh and indeed, no public announcements please, or only after we have spoken with most parties involved. People don't like it when they are being surprised in the public forum.

DeepO

[FrustratedPoet]

Originally posted by Shiber
No public announcements, please

I agree. They've never, never, worked well for us in the past.

[Harovan]

To keep silent hasn't worked either.

As I said, best would be Aesons approach. No public announcement. Talk to GoW, show our hand. Now. And talk to ND.

[Shiber]

Ok, how about this: we announce it late, after all relevant parties have been informed via chat or PM or whatever means we choose, and we announce it through role-playing (in a charioteer-of-arashi kind of way).

[DeepO]

Lego is already informed. And indeed, we should start contacting the others as well... if our policies are laid out (in the ambassadors report thread there is some discussion going as well), perhaps it be best if ambassadors start to contact their teams?

DeepO

[asleepathewheel]

I like Aeson's point. Public posts have burned us in the past.

[Arrian]

The main purpose would be to inform GoW of what they would find out anyways once they get the save. Also to give them a hazy enough picture that they don't know quite what to expect from us. I really wouldn't mind giving them a rough description of what our landing force will be though... something like, "we plan on being able to outnumber GoW forces in the theater by the next turn. Subsequent landing of forces will be regular and of a like number."

We want GoW to be hesitant, and have as much of a chance to back down as possible. GoW/ND have certainly underestimated our capability to land troops quickly, as made obvious by the "keep what you take" suggestion being made as a joke. By the time they can make it to NM... we would outnumber GoW by more than 2 to 1, not even counting the 7 Cats we are sending across. If GoW realizes they will quickly be outnumbered, hopefully they will be more likely to draw off. Right now they are probably thinking in 'their' terms... that we may be able to land 6-8 units in a few turns.

I see what you're saying, but I see the potential for this to backfire. Giving intelligence data like that to a potential enemy is a tough sell for me. Not only that, but what if GoW's reaction to the info, instead of what you want (hesitation, possible withdrawl) is to charge pell-mell ahead, hoping to do as much damage as possible before we can get our forces in place? I'm not sure we want that.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Oh, and FYI - check the ND diplo thread. Shiber composed a note to ND, which I passed on to Borc.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

Well, they aren't our enemies yet. They are faced with breaking a NAP or missing out on gaining anything with their Riders... so if we look like a tougher nut to crack than ND, they have a decision to make. Which NAP to break.

I trust GoW in one regard, to do what GoW thinks will help their team most. Right now they underestimate us badly, which can help us in the war (suprise!), but greatly increases the chance there is a war IMO. It's a gamble. We are giving intelligence on our numbers to GoW about 3-4 turns earlier than they would find out anyways.

Another thing about it though... if we are landing 15+ troops, and ND knows it... they will likely move slower, and try to keep their stack together. The biggest threat to RP is that Leon falls, and Pamplona can be attacked, which means they have to give up Toledo. If ND keeps it's stack together, that won't happen, or at least not as quickly, and we'll be able to have troops to help with.

And finally, it may be the bit of info GoW needs to 'pull back' and try a landing on Stormia. That gives us time, and is something we are preparing for anyways.

[Arrian]

I'm still extremely uncomfortable with giving away our numbers to the (maybe) enemy.

I understand that it *could* result in a favorable response from them (backstab of ND, hestitation), but it could also result in things we don't want (ND & GoW both just going for broke - throwing all they have against RP ASAP, trying to break them before we can get significant forces in the right spots to help).

-Arrian

[Shiber]

Giving GoW information seems to me like the high gamble (GoW might back off, but if they don't they'll have better chances against us when we finally arrive), as opposed to just keeping it a surprise, which seems closer to a sure thing (GoW will most likely declare war, but their forces will be unprepared and stretched when we strike). While I like the grand prize, the odds seem to favor the house...
There's a lot out there in the great field of diplomacy and foreign affairs that we don't know about. There are a dozen bad situations that we haven't even discussed that could result from us telling GoW about our invasion force. But landing and retaining the element of surprise depends on few, if any, unknown outside factors. I give my vote to secrecy.