Re-entering builder mode.

[Aeson]

And it all comes down to a smaller benifit sooner vs. a bigger benifit later.

Not sure I agree with the comparison. I've been using most the comparitive adjectives in quotes, as it more depends on what we do with the benefits now than their up front worth.

A 'small' benefit now can be leveraged... a tech lead, more of an ability to intervene if necessary on Bob, ect. Those things can then be leveraged... a tech lead can become ToE, which makes the tech lead bigger.

I'd guess it would be mid-industrial before the 'better' placed FP catches up. Game may be over by then, and probably will have been decided one way or another. Any advantages from that point on may very well be inconsequential, and may not be able to overcome the indirect advantages we've leveraged our gains into.

The questions for me comes down to these:

Do we think the game will have 'played out' before the Modern Era?

Given our landmass, with our FP and Palace this close together, will we win the game if it comes down to a space race? Or do we have to have a Palace jump to Bob/other landmass to compete long term in the tech race.

How far are we willing to go to leverage short term gains into long term ones? (wonder building, military expansion, ect.) How likely are we able to do so?

[Arrian]

A 'small' benefit now can be leveraged... a tech lead, more of an ability to intervene if necessary on Bob, ect. Those things can then be leveraged... a tech lead can become ToE, which makes the tech lead bigger.

Oh, I agree. My post didn't make it clear (it was poorly written) but that's what I'm saying:

It comes down to whether a small benifit soon (and going forward) can be leveraged into more than a larger benifit later. What I mean by smaller/larger benifit is the benifit to the northern cities - former Voxian cities. A FP in Arashi will still leave them with quite a bit of distance corruption... in other words, I don't think it will help much at all, and thus isn't worth the 200 shields. I'd rather have arashi building other things, actually.

Perhaps the best thing would be to test it out. I don't think it's something we can quantify exactly, but we could get a feel for it via a scenario.

I could be very wrong on this. I'm rather uncertain about it, especially in light of the fact that you're so strongly for a FP in Arashi. I have little doubt you're better at this stuff than I am.

-Arrian

[Theseus]

Am I missing something?

Wouldn't a space win (i.e., production) come from optimal use of Stormia?

Would we expect high production from a chunk of Bob, even with the Palace? Wouldn't a Bobian expedition rather have military goals?

To me, the somewhat small difference in corruption management from an FP in the D-ville area rather than in Arashi... it seems like the safe bet, depnding on what kind of win we want to go after (as well as the difficulty of getting a GL on Bob).

[nbarclay]

In my experience, the space race is about wealth and science, not production. Spaceship parts really aren't all that expensive production-wise, and prebuilds can further assist the production angle. In MP, the race can also be very heavily about partnership. Two civs with significantly less research capacity each, working together, could easily freeze out and out-research a bigger civ with greater ability to research on its own.

Such ability for a coalition of weaker civs to gang up on a stronger one economically and in research, not just militarily, is starting to get on my nerves more than a little. Basically, it can easily make the game one of, "Who do we want to let get a fair deal?" rather than one of "Who can play best?"

[Aeson]

I don't think we can be the tech/commerce leader with an FP in D-ville or Arashi much past the mid-Industrial. Maybe at Elipolis, but without a Leader it's going to take a good chunk of the rest of the game to build there.

My point with that question is that we probably aren't going to win a space race with Stormia alone (like I said, maybe with the FP in Elipolis by Leader). We don't have the commerce capacity that at least 2 civs on Bob could have, and it looks like we don't have the Diplomatic capacity to make up the difference. So planning the FP for a late game benefit doesn't seem to be the best option to me.

I think this game breaks wide open in the next 20-30 turns. GoW and ND have a tremendous window of opportunity both. Certainly doesn't have to happen, but I think I'd do something with Riders or Ansars, as it's the biggest advantage that either civ is likely to have in this game. Arashi should have the FP up and running by that point, and it's effect would be on cities we have built up by then. It puts us at our strongest we can be at that point, and gives us the most capacity to shape how things turn out.

If the game doesn't play out that way, our best chance to win is a Palace core on Bob. The FP in Arashi is a bit better in that regard as it keeps our core mostly intact on Stormia.

[Theseus]

Nathan, we have to face up to the fact that we are out on the playground now, after school, and there is no teacher watching.

Whereas I won;t go as far as Vondrack (i.e., "putting up with bull****"), we have to accept that we are in a different paradigm. That's fine... my basic premise is that if others are going to define a framework of which we do not approve, we must then BREAK that framework, and re-build a structure to our own liking, or at least acceptance.

In simpler words: Any time something in this game gets on our nerves, fine, let's f*ck everybody up, and do the unexpected, OUR way. Good diplo / military tactics, don;t you think?

[nbarclay]

Arashi is only five tiles from EotS. That could work well if it proves to be a game breaker for an opportunity to invade Bob and move our palace there, since it would help keep our biggest and most productive cities productive. But if we don't get such an opportunity (and the other teams just might stalemate each other into peace, or we might not be as militarily successful as we'd like to think, or we might win nicely but not get a leader to move the palace in a timely manner), having our FP only five tiles from our palace could be virtual suicide in the long term.

What we probably ought to do is start prebuilds in both places. Rushing improvements to set up both prebuilds will be expensive, but the flexibility is probably worth it. If we get a good opening on Bob, we build in Arashi for the short-term wealth and production boosts. If not, we try to find a wonder for Arashi and build our FP at Dissidentville or D9. (By the way, the fact that Dissidentville, or D9 with a temple, can work two mountains at size six would be a real help, even if it does mean our workers will have their work cut out for them between that and the jungles.)

[nbarclay]

Theseus, even a schoolyard bully with no teacher watching doesn't pick a fight with three other kids about the same size he is. (Or not if he's smart, at any rate.) If the Bobiams give us a good opening, we take it. Otherwise, I'd rather sit tight and hope for an opening later.

[notyoueither]

I think we could gain something from playing the honourable position. If any insult our honour, they should stand ready to defend their hearths and homes.

That could go a long way to changing the rules of the game.

[Arrian]

Arashi is just too close to EotS, IMO.

Nathan,

Also, if we move the city to D9, the current city tile is an already-cleared jungle tile, which means fewer worker turns to improve.

-Arrian

[Aeson]

Sorta the idea, to keep it close. I think we're screwed if this thing turns into a space race and we have our FP in either Arashi or D7, and our Palace still in EotS.

If we do end up moving our Palace, Arashi is better than D7. It keeps our river, and our main cities, all more productive. If we don't move the Palace off Stormia, we either win (or decide) this game before D7 becomes better, or we lose either way. I don't see a scenario where the FP in D7 comes out better than an FP in Arashi and we still win.

[Arrian]

If we do end up moving our Palace, Arashi is better than D7. It keeps our river, and our main cities, all more productive.

True. In a SP game, Arashi would be my FP spot, and I'd be fishing for a leader to move my palace.

But like I said, I just don't think we're going to be able to pull that off. We would need to:

1) invade Bob or Lego
2) capture a significant amount of territory/cities
3) generate a leader
4) be able to defend it, and our homeland.

I'd love it if it happened, but I just don't think we should plan for it. Really, what would we gain from a FP in Arashi until we move the Palace (IF we move the palace)? Slightly lower corruption in some really marginal cities (ok, Dissville area would probably be much improved), and still-crippling corruption up in "Estonia."

-Arrian

[Velociryx]

I agree that 5 tiles between capitol and fp is too close for the long term, but I do believe that we now have a sufficient land-base that we can more than just "keep pace" with the rest of the kids on the playground. We are in the lead right now, and although that will surely be eroded somewhat as we transition fully back to builder mode and absorb our new lands (and as other civs have their GA's), we must not overlook the fact that a direct attack at GS is not the easiest, nor the most expedient way for another civ to grow and challenge us.

Consider Bob. As far as we know (I do not believe we have any solid information regarding the size of Lego's continent?), Bob is the single largest landmass on the planet, and a civ in firm control of most or all of Bob would have an enormous advantage.

Right now, Bob is fairly evenly divided, but as the game continues, I would expect tensions to escalate there, with a 2:1 situation developing in hopes of eliminating one of the Bobans and splitting his lands between the cooperating survivors. The civs on that continent will likely trigger their GA's when war erupts, and spend theirs much the same way we spent ours, and it would behoove us to be in a position to assist the underdog in that fight (both strategically and diplomatically).

As the biggest power, we can truly play the role of puppet master, and that is how we can win this game.

-=Vel=-

[Aeson]

I just ran a simulation. Three different FP sites and likely city placement. Don't read too much into the numbers, as for quite some time most of our productive cities (regardless of where we end up building the FP) will be in the S. Also, most of the bonus wonders we are able to grab (Collosus, Copernicus', Newton's hopefully) will also be in the S, Tempest, Hurricane, and/or EotS.

Case 1: FP Arashi
Case 2: FP Dissidentville 7
Case 3: FP Elipolis 7

Without ever moving the Palace (and not having any holdings off Stormia), these are the 'end' numbers we will be generating (everything built).

1: +477 gpt
2: +578 gpt
3: +620 gpt

With holdings off of Stormia: (used most of RP's territory, GoW's territory should be similar or slightly better. Likely scenario for us to get onto Bob is alliance in a 2v2, each of the victors taking one of the opponents land)

1: +786
2: +746
3: +651

I think we can expect RP at about 600-700 with their territory now. It wouldn't suprise me any if Lego was the same or slightly better. GoW/ND are in the same boat as us, and need expansion of the military sort to compete with RP and (probably) Lego in the end game tech race.

Suprisingly, a FP at the bottleneck is pretty much the same whether we move onto Bob or not, and puts us close to competitive either way (as long as a giant doesn't emerge on Bob).

-----------------------

So this is what I think we should do. Build the FP in Arashi ASAP. Start a rather long FP pre-build at the bottleneck. The FP in Arashi will help it be a bit faster, probably around 40 turns. In 40 turns it should be clear whether or not we are going to get onto Bob in a reasonable timeframe. If we can get onto Bob, and get a Leader, we move the Palace there and take our maximum. If both those don't happen, we 'disband' (liquidate into Workers/Settlers) Arashi once the FP prebuild is ready, then rebuild Arashi. We should be able to have Arashi back up to speed within a few turns of disbanding it.

This way we get a short term boost ASAP by building our FP in Arashi. Then we have the option to have our 'max' empire if things go right on Bob, and if not, will have our 'max' Stormia empire set up to take over about the same point D7 would be catching up to Arashi in efficiency.

[Aeson]

But like I said, I just don't think we're going to be able to pull that off. We would need to:

1) invade Bob or Lego
2) capture a significant amount of territory/cities
3) generate a leader
4) be able to defend it, and our homeland.

I really think we lose if we can't do that. Not necessarily needing the leader, but definitely needing to have some significant holdings on Bob so that a monster civ doesn't materialize there.

Best we can hope for is to be ~90% as productive as the leader by the 'end game' by staying on Stormia exclusively. That's with a FP at the bottleneck, and the 3 civs on Bob staying about where they are. If Bob becomes a 2 civ continent, we really have no chance. We'd be at probably ~60% of the leader in production (a rather high percentage of our used tiles end up coast and sea), and ~70% in commerce. The 4 turn research cap might give us a shot (given the low difficulty level), but we're going to be putting everything we can into research to keep up, and the other civs will have more leftover commerce to support larger armies (very dangerous living that).