Turn 109, 390 BC

[vulture]

Re the eastern stack - we may already be able to begin moving units away to other places.

With 4 immortals on 2 hp and 1 on 1hp, their odds against 2 vet pikemen fortified on mountains are:

n prob
0 9.3%
1 23.3%
2 67.4%

n is the no. of surviving pikes. So there is only a 9% chance they'd kill 2 pikes on a mountain, leaving them 2-4 units surviving.

With 3 pikemen, the odds are

n prob
0 0.6%
1 3.4%
2 22.1%
3 73.9%

The extra pikeman reduces their chances to very close to zero, and (more importantly) reduces our chance of losing a pike from 40% to 30%. (very roughly).

We could get away with 2 pikes on each mountain in an emergency, and any more than 3 is probably an extravanagce. If we have more than 3 pikes in any of the three positions, they can be safely re-deployed elsewhere (catapult effects ignored in this - 2 pikes with 3 defensive catapult hits out of 7 are stronger than 3 pikes).

[vulture]

Addendum :

2 pikes and 2 MI are sufficient for defense purposes on each position. I assume we'll want to keep some MI in the mountains to kill Vox when they all get to 1 hp, so 2 pikes and 2 MI on each mountain (giving 6 MI to finish them off when we're ready) is plenty, and any extra units can be redeployed IMHO

FWIW here are the odds for the Vox stack against 2 pike and 2 MI, all veteran and fortified:

n prob
0 0.05%
1 0.56%
2 4.6%
3 24.3%
4 70.5%

So I propose that we keep 2 pikes and 2 MI on each mountain. Maybe we want to leave the north mountain as it is (3 pikes 1 MI) unless we can ship another MI there and take the pike off this turn. Other units are then free to reinforce Inchoff or to move west to pressure D'ville and defend Monsoon.

[nbarclay]

The most pikes we have on any eastern tiles are three. On the other hand, it's tempting to pull a pike each from SS6 and H8 to reinforce Inchon (considering that practically Vox's entire army seems to be planning to converge there). That would still leave two pikes, a vet MedInf, a regular MedInf, and a fast-mover (unless we move those forward too) on each mountain, and the MedInfs are needed next turn to attack the immortals. (There's also a MedInf at H888 that can participate in the attack, but the units there are positioned well to be shuttled to Inchoff quickly after we've finished Vox's stack.) [Edit: Crosspost.]

[nbarclay]

What do folks think of sending our two elite WCs that haven't generated leaders yet to Inchon on the galley we finished last turn?

[FrustratedPoet]

I'm in favour of that plan. The more chances we can give those things to fight the better.

[vulture]

Pulling out those 2 pikes makes sense to me. Do we want to send the galleys to Inchon, or hold them around in the hope that Vox make a break from the mountains and they get to chase some wounded immortals on the plains, which seems quite a plausible scenario to me.

[nbarclay]

Also, do we want to see if we can get lucky trying to capture some cats? The down side is that Vox would get cat shots at our MedInfs on their way in, which would hurt our already-not-great odds of winning three fights out of three. Vulture, if you want to run the odds (as best you can with cats involved), assuming fortification after movement in a turn doesn't count, Vox has an unfortified veteran pike, a fortified veteran spear, and an unfortified regular immortal.

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by vulture
Pulling out those 2 pikes makes sense to me. Do we want to send the galleys to Inchon, or hold them around in the hope that Vox make a break from the mountains and they get to chase some wounded immortals on the plains, which seems quite a plausible scenario to me.

Please clarify. Galleys don't chase units around on plains, so you're obviously not explaining the entirety of what you have in mind.

[nbarclay]

One other issue: We have a choice of whether to send two galleys forward for blockade duty or bring them all back for additional troops. With Vox appearing to be preparing to concentrate its troops for an attack on Inchon, I'm inclined to use everything we have to deliver reinforcements.

[vulture]

Best case scenario (all cats miss), if we attack with 3 vet MI, we have a 37.4% chance of capturing the cats (on average we kill 2 units, lose 1, and fail to capture the cats). Worst case scenario, both cat shots hit (they have two cats there right?), we have a 24.6% chance of taking the cats. Most likely result is the same as the best case scenario, but obviously there is more chance that we lose a few units, but not by a huge margin.

[vulture]

Requested clarification: by 'galleys' is obviously our new, ultra-secret codename for elite WCs...

[nbarclay]

Vox has three cats there, so figure odds in the neighborhood of 25%-30%. Considering that odds are we'll hurt Vox a bit whether we get the cats or not, and considering the total disaster it would be for Vox if we get lucky and capture their cats, it seems worth trying.

[vulture]

Okay, 3 catapults then. Assuming a 50% chance of catapult attack success, that gives us (n is no of defenders surviving)

n prob
0 27.6% (we get catapults)
1 41.0%
2 24.9%
3 6.5%

So counting 3 or 2 wins as a success, and 1 or 0 as a failure, we have 68.6% chance of success and 31.4% chance of failure, or pretty much 2/3 and 1/3, which suggests to me that we ought to go for it. In the worst case (all three cats hit) we still have a 57% chance of success by these terms, and have more to gain than to lose. I think it is worth the gamble (plus, with the reasoning on Vox not attacking our pikes at Inchoff - it is better to try and kill a pikeman in the open than when it is fortified in a city). Go for it (unless everyone else disagrees).

EDIT: plus, we don't have to attack with everything if the first battles go badly. If we lose the first MI without scratching the pike, then I suggest we abort the mission f'rinstance.

[alva]

Could yo send the save nathan .
-
Looks like something that if succesfull would be worth the risk.

[nbarclay]

My guess is that Vox is planning to hit Inchon with a huge force shortly. My thinking in moving the elite WCs forward is that they'll be handy to help clean up what's left over after Vox attacks and our MedInfs counterattack the pikes covering their attack.

If we recall all our eastern galleys, we'll have four in a position to load next turn. I'm thinking in terms of probably loading three pikes, a cat, and four vet MedInfs on them (assuming it still looks like Vox is pulling its forces north to attack Inchon). That, plus two elite WCs, should give us a very solid defense and a decent counterattack potential.