Turn 109, 390 BC

[nbarclay]

Turn fowarded.

[vulture]

Another note on going for the catapults - you'd be surprised how much difference throwing a pike into the attack can make. Again assuming a 50% cat success rate, the chance of capturing the cats goes from 27.6% to 45.9% with the addition of a pike, and the 'success' chance goes up to 76% - from 2/3 to 3/4. A lot of the time I guess the pike gets to attack a 1 or 2 hp defender, and has good odds. It might be worth using a pike if there is just one 1 hp defender left, if nothing else can get there in time, although whether it is worth the loss in defensive power of Inchon is an open question.

[alva]

Did Vox have a harbor before? They have now (Wittlitch)

[vulture]

I guess we need to start worrying about getting a blockade going (as long as we don't mind declaring war on whoever tries to trade with them - and we can't stop them from being connected long enough to do some upgrades).

[vulture]

I've been doing some Inchon simulations, and the three MIs don't add much to the defense of the town. Building town walls makes about a 6 times larger difference.

I assumed Vox could come at us with 10 immortals (I guesses at 5 veteran and 5 regular - don't know how plausible that is. With the 5 they are losing in the east, and assuming they are going to leave some to help defend D'ville, that seemed like a reasonable guess. With 6 pikes defending, we lose on average 2.8 units (vs 7.1 of theirs) with no walls, and 2.2 (7.7) with walls - that means the walls basically swing one more battle in our favour on average (chance of losing the town on the first turn is 7.2% w/o walls, 3.3% with walls).

They need to get in 15 immortals before they have around a 50% chance of success (if they take the town that turn, or have a good chance to take it the next turn - e.g. we have 1 survivor and they have 5). Each pike is worth 2.5 immortals, more or less, in Inchon, once we have town walls.

[Shiber]

I'm not so eager to build walls in Inchon anymore, now that Vox has 3 cats outside of it.
When cats bombard a city, they always take a shot at the walls first (same for naval bombardments vs. coastal fortresses). Walls have a bombardment defense value of 4, or 6 on hills, so chances are that with 3 cats, they will knock down our walls and then attack with their immortals. So effectively, all that those walls will be good for is for blocking 2-3 cat bombardment attempts, which translate to a loss of about 1HP for one of our pikes.
I think we can leave with that. The walls aren't worth it anymore.

Inchoff, on the other hand, could definitely use walls, though a 0-turn rush doesn't seem necessary.

Btw, we have the embassy benefits with Vox, so if/when they start getting iron from one of the Bobians, we'll know who they're getting it from.

[Arrian]

3 vet med infs versus 1 vet pike, 1 vet spear & 1 regular immortal stacked with 3 cats. That is the question, right?

If we do not hit that stack, next turn there are two more pikemen (1 vet, 1 regular) and several immortals that will join it.

I say hit 'em.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Oh, by the way: Wittlich just became our next target.

-Arrian

[alva]

Btw, we have the embassy benefits with Vox, so if/when they start getting iron from one of the Bobians, we'll know who they're getting it from.

Not during war.

[vulture]

Even during war - we can see trades in the F4 screen during war times, which should provide us with enough info (unless they spontaneously get trades with a few civs to try and mask which one is the iron deal).

[Shiber]

While we're debating the blockade and the counter-attack against the cats, Nathan, could you please settle Inchoff? I'm curious to know what's 2 tiles away from that site.

[alva]

Even during war - we can see trades in the F4 screen during war times, which should provide us with enough info (unless they spontaneously get trades with a few civs to try and mask which one is the iron deal).

The only trades one is able to see is if Vox is trading with ND because we have an embassy with them too.

[vulture]

I thought that since we have an embassy with Vox, we can see all their trades regardless of the war situation. Fairly confident of that in SP. Anyone want to check?

[Arrian]

I really, really, really hope we can manage to grab those cats.

I'd even be willing to throw a pike into the fray if we knock them down to 1 beat up unit (not the pike, but either the spear or immortal) covering the cats.

-Arrian

[Shiber]

I'd be willing even if they had 2 hp. Compare losing a pike to depriving Vox of 3 catapults, and winning 3 catapults for ourselves.