32000 members

[DrSpike]

Still pretty good.

What was the figure last time around?

[Skanky Burns]

Less than that. I seem to remember the number 1400, but that could have been pulled from anywhere.

[Spiffor]

1457 between 12th April and 12th May.

Scary. The latest "+ 1000 posters !" thread is about 10 days old

[Locutus]

I was a little bored today so I did some research on when we reached each milestone. Here's the list on when each milestone from 5000 logins onwards was reported (which is not necessarily the same as when it was actually reached):

 5000		23-01-00
 6000		20-05-00	
 7000		14-10-00
 8000		20-12-00
 9000		19-12-00
10000		14-05-01
11000		16-08-01
12000		19-10-01
13000		06-11-01
14000		10-11-01
15000		22-11-01
16000		11-12-01
17000		17-01-02
18000		05-04-02
19000		27-04-02
20000		08-06-02
21000		16-07-02
22000		31-08-02
23000		01-10-02
24000		05-11-02
25000		28-11-02
26000		26-12-02
27000		22-01-03
28000		27-02-03
29000		11-03-03
30000		04-04-03
31000		12-05-03
32000		25-05-03

Note that the 9000 date is probably wrong (1 day before the 8000 date ), but I couldn't find anything better. From 2002 onwards, it always took roughly 1 month to reach the next milestone (with 5 exceptions always between 20 and 40 days). The latest milestone of 32000 logins was reached in about 2 weeks (13 days). That's faster than average, which is probably related to the release of RoN, as has already been noted.

Below is an Excel graph on how long it took us to reach each milestone.

[Locutus]

Same graph as above, now cumulative

[Locutus]

Finally: the raw data, for those who want to run their own analyses

members		date of			days to reach	days to reach
(in 1000)	milestone				(cumulative)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
5		23-1-2000		0		0
6		20-5-2000		118		118
7		14-10-2000		147		265
8		20-12-2000		67		332
9		19-12-2000		-1		331
10		14-5-2001		146		477
11		16-8-2001		94		571
12		19-10-2001		64		635
13		6-11-2001		18		653
14		10-11-2001		4		657
15		22-11-2001		12		669
16		11-12-2001		19		688
17		17-1-2002		37		725
18		5-4-2002		78		803
19		27-4-2002		22		825
20		8-6-2002		42		867
21		16-7-2002		38		905
22		31-8-2002		46		951
23		1-10-2002		31		982
24		5-11-2002		35		1017
25		28-11-2002		23		1040
26		26-12-2002		28		1068
27		22-1-2003		27		1095
28		27-2-2003		36		1131
29		11-3-2003		12		1143
30		4-4-2003		24		1167
31		12-5-2003		38		1205
32		25-5-2003		13		1218

[DrSpike]

Now someone do the same for active members and run a comparative analysis.

[Locutus]

Originally posted by panag
it could hit 50 000 thousand by X-mas at this rate , ......

Our average growth rate since 2002 has been 1000 logins per 35 days. At that pace we should reach 50,000 logins is about 20 months. So not this Christmas but next (Christmas 2004). Of course, our current rate is 1000 logins per 13 days, so should we be able to keep that up (however unlikely), we will reach the magic 50,000 number in about 8 months. Not too long after Christmas indeed.

[Locutus]

I'll leave that to you, DrSpike

Here's a final graph that may be of interest: the growth rate of Apolyton's forum community.

[Jamski]

That's pretty interesting, seems to be liniar growth up zo the Civ3 release, and then a bump, and then slightly faster linear than before. facinating

-Jam

[ixnay]

Hooray for hitting another milestone. And nice work on those graphs and stuff. I certainly like looking at stats like these.

[badams52]

was gonna post my ubiquitous that I do in all these threads, but the graphs are excellent.

[Gramphos]

8000 20-12-00
9000 19-12-00

Did 1000 members get deleted @ 9000, so you reaced 8000 one day later ?

[Locutus]

Actually, I think someone made a typo somewhere. I found the date for 9k in a news item. In the 12k news item Markos mentioned the dates for reaching 9k, 10k and 11k as well, where the 9k date is the one I listed (AFAIK there was no seperate news item or forum thread for 9k, probably due to server problems). The date for 8k I got from searching the forum archive. The thread I found wasn't very useful, but it's a good reason to assume it's a correct date nonetheless...

Edit: oh, and of course this news item proves that 8000 is the correct number for the 19 December 2000.

[Locutus]

Oh, and for DrSpike's information, the number of active posters in October 2000 was 1015

(There are probably more of such stats to be found in forum archives and news, but finding those will be this week's homework assignment for DrSpike )