On the Utility and Use of Armies

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph
One of the best ancient times army I ever had was one with 2 Horsemen and 1 Impi. That's a great mix. I used it in a lot of wars and it remained even useful after I had Knights. Later, the Impi and 1 Horseman died while the last Horseman survived, and I was able to add 2 Cavalries. This army served me well till I got Tanks.

I haven't read the whole thread, so maybe this was discussed before, but...

I don't recall ever losing any units in an Army till the whole thing died. I've had Armies with 4 units go to 1 HP total for the entire Army. Still all 4 units alive. I can't recall losing all but 1 HP since 1.17f. Did they change this?

[Harovan]

Seems so. I was also surprised, that after a tough battle with a 1 hp army left I was suddenly able to add units again. Although it was with 1.17, it could not be the stack move exploit, because in that case the Impi should have remained and not one of the Horsies.

By the way, what I added were in fact Knights and not Cavalries as I wrote above.

[notyoueither]

Hmmm. I've been able to inadvertantly move units out of an Army. But I've yet to see a unit die if the Army didn't die.

Like I said. I haven't seen an Army go to 1 HP with 1.17f yet.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Dominae
Zachriel, your numbers are correct. So are mine. I was just trying to give the odds of getting one or more GLs with a high probability (75%) and near certainty (95%). Saying that you get a GL 50% of the time every eight victories with Elites doesn't mean much to me, to tell you the truth; if it helps you to think of those numbers, so be it. In any case, my post focuses on what you can expect from Heroic Epic, not how likely it is to generate your first GL.

Dominae

Good post Dominae. Your numbers were accurate and interesting, no doubt -- with the at least one qualifier. But the qualifier is important. For instance, with 22 elite combats, there is indeed a 75% chance of at least one Great Leader, but there is also a 40% of at least two Leaders, and a 1/6 chance of at least three! I find this very pertinent to your main point.

[DrFell]

Playing today as Japan on deity, the same elite horseman managed to generate 3 GLs in about 5 combats. That's the best I've ever seen, I'd gone all out military and by about 500BC had 3 wonders (Forbidden Palace, Sun Tzus, and Great Library). So to all you who aren't getting GLs - you must really be doing something wrong! Early combat seems to generate almost a guaranteed early leader for the palace, and sometimes you get bonuses like these.

[Arrian]

DrFell,

Sometimes it happens like that. Your example is extreme, but I've seen stuff like it. Failure to generate even one GL is probably equally as likely. Luck 'o the draw.

I've decided on my preferred situation for an early warmongering style game - and it has to do with geography. I want an oblong continent, with me on one end, with three more civs inhabiting the rest. I can then march systematically through these civs, hopefully putting down the forbidden somewhere in the second civ's (former) territory, and end up with a 4-civ (and hence 4 luxury) continent.

Forbidden Palace placement drives me nuts sometimes. I was messing around with a game last night (Japan again) and was on a "Y" shaped continent. I was in the NW part, China in the NE and India in the S. I destroyed China and got a leader, so the FP is in Beijing, but the reality is that my Indian provinces (well, not mine yet...) will always be corrupt. Nothin' I can do. The "Y" shape just doesn't lend itself to the corruption model. It isn't terrible, because at least you have two non-corrupt core areas, but the water inbetween the arms of the Y is wasted. If it was land, it would be partially productive. This is why the barbell shape is best.

Dominae & Zachriel - good stuff on leader generation. I would argue that making an early army is more worthwhile on larger maps, because you will have more units and battles on those maps.

-Arrian

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Zachriel
Good post Dominae. Your numbers were accurate and interesting, no doubt -- with the at least one qualifier. But the qualifier is important. For instance, with 22 elite combats, there is indeed a 75% chance of at least one Great Leader, but there is also a 40% of at least two Leaders, and a 1/6 chance of at least three! I find this very pertinent to your main point.

Very true Zachriel. As I'm sure you know, I calculated the stat by figuring out how likely it was to get no GLs with 22 victories, then substracted this number from 1; this gives the figure of getting at least one GL, as you pointed out. I simply neglected to point this out. However, I was trying to analyse the Heroic Epic in terms of guarantees (95% certainty), which (I don't think) is immediately obvious (to me anyway). The only thing my numbers guarantee is getting at least 1 more GL (or at least 2 more, etc.).

Again, thanks for pointing this out.


Dominae

[Dry]

Originally posted by DrFell
Playing today as Japan on deity, the same elite horseman managed to generate 3 GLs in about 5 combats. That's the best I've ever seen, I'd gone all out military and by about 500BC had 3 wonders (Forbidden Palace, Sun Tzus, and Great Library). So to all you who aren't getting GLs - you must really be doing something wrong! Early combat seems to generate almost a guaranteed early leader for the palace, and sometimes you get bonuses like these.

My best score with GLs is with a non-militaristic civ - but with HE, 3 leaders in the same turn (rush 1 wonder and 2 factories). This was at Monarch level with 1.16f.
When I am at war - I start real war only after I have cav. - 1 GL per turn is not unusual.
As it was said before the trick is not to 'sacrifice' the elites in first wave attacks. Keep them for the kill blow against wounded units.
My feeling is also that you increase your GL probability
- if you fight/kill twice in the same turn (you need at least tanks for this);
- if you kill a unit with better (modified) defense than your attack :kill a 1hp infantry (in city) with your 5hp elite cavalry; GL prob. could be based on the attack/def ratio;

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Dry
My feeling is also that you increase your GL probability
- if you fight/kill twice in the same turn (you need at least tanks for this);
- if you kill a unit with better (modified) defense than your attack :kill a 1hp infantry (in city) with your 5hp elite cavalry; GL prob. could be based on the attack/def ratio;

I was under the impression that nothing increases GL probability other than the Heroic Epic. Anyone care to set the record straight?


Dominae

[alexman]

This thread is excellent. It made me totally revise my view of armies and GLs. Thanks guys.

As as result of my renewed interest, I did some army combat calculations to verify some of the things mentioned here.

1) rpodos' method of mixing units from different eras in an army is much more effective than I thought. When reading about using hormen in armies when cavalry is available, my first reaction was that this would not change the combat results much compared to if the army had only the cavalry units without the horseman. I mean, if you are down to using the horseman to defeat a fortified rifleman in a city, you'll probably lose anyway, no? I was surprised. An army of two cavalries (V), one knight (E), and one horseman (E) wins 84% of the time attacking a rifleman (V) with a 100% defender bonus. Without the horseman, it wins only 76% of the time!

2) Calculating the effective strength of an army by taking the average of the strengths of its units, is surprisingly (to me) accurate.

Examples: (all veteran with defender 50% terrain bonus)
Average strength 3
2 Immortals + 1 pikeman vs pikeman win 90% of the time
3 swordsmen vs pikeman win 91% of the time
Average strength 4.67
2 cavalries and a horseman vs rifleman win 80% of the time
1 cavalry and 2 knights vs rifleman win 80% of the time

As a result of this useless experiment, (since you guys already knew this stuff by intuition and/or experience) I now have a useless combat calculator for armies.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Arrian
I would argue that making an early army is more worthwhile on larger maps, because you will have more units and battles on those maps.

-Arrian

I agree. Plus it is even more important to get the Epic when playing larger maps.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by Dominae

However, I was trying to analyse the Heroic Epic in terms of guarantees (95% certainty), which (I don't think) is immediately obvious (to me anyway). The only thing my numbers guarantee is getting at least 1 more

Ah, so! Certainty is certainly a very tricky question.

[punkbass2000]

Originally posted by Zachriel


Gotcha! Certainty is certainly a very tricky question.

Especially when dealing with probability

[rpodos]

... and sombreros.

R

[punkbass2000]

And the probability of sombreros