72 : (6/30/05) ST played today. He had a hidden cat in the Mpondo area (30,30), which killed my warrior stack. I got Phil and took Poly (for better D). Next will be Feud in about 10t. His stack near Intombe apparently got back on the boat and left without firing a shot.
No Zulu attacks/bribes/etc. I am mainly consolidating my position. For example, making more warriors before feudalism obsoletes them. I am working on 7 more settlers, to take full advantage of HG. Also, enough vets, boats and barracks for military parity.
Global thoughts about the next ten years or so:
Since my homeland now seems fairly safe, I am probably winning the game. I should keep the game fairly simple and keep relying mainly on growth to increase my advantage.
ST's production = 40s/t, and I can bet he'll use it on the war. I get 75s/t, so I can match his defense spending and still devote 35s/t to growth, vans and militia.
I believe that with equal force, the defender has an edge. Of course, ST can concentrate his forces on a few surprise targets and expect to win some victories. I might lose up to 4 cities in 10 turns, but I can probably build 8 new ones during that same period. Also, it seems the attacker is more likely to lose major units (like catapults) than the defender. So, it's all good.
Goals: I want Hlobane/Zim to be 99% secure. I can't defend everything, but I want at least 1/3 of ST's surprise invasions of my minor cities to fail. So I will keep cats/etc in a few randomly chosen cities like Lonsim.
I want more boats, vets, and roads. I want some dips in stacks along coastlines to bribe ST's boats as they return from deliveries.
By 82AD, I'd like to be halfway to another Wonder (probably Pyramids, but maybe STWA or LH). I want to increase my growth lead to approx 25 vs 12 cities. When ST gets Poly, I should have Feudalism, and be making pikemen. And by 82AD, I should be ready for a major attack, perhaps on Cheb.
73 : An American trireme with passengers appears near Zimbabwe. Two Zulu triremes and a dip have just arrived there to start "Operation Zim Sea". My idea is to attack ST's loaded triremes (repeatedly, until sunk) and to bribe any empty ones. I think this plan gives the Zulus a naval advantage. The Americans cannot easily do the same to us because a) bribing Zulu boats will be too expensive near Zim, and b) Zulus are not as likely to carry valuable cargo. Also, Zulu production is higher, so we can recoup from losses faster.
After some play testing, I found that my two boats have about 2-1 odds of success, when attacking twice against a lone defender (if we both lose a boat, but only his boat has passengers, that is a Zulu success). So I attacked, and was a little surprised to win with my first boat. It was wounded, and became a vet.
My second boat + dip ventured out to explore a little to the north, and found a second enemy boat, also loaded. Maybe I should have attacked it, from a Bayesian point of view. But I retreated, hoping to get another 2-1 advantage sooner or later. The dip got off the boat, in case ST decides to attack it.
Not much else to report. Just strengthening my position according to plan.
No Zulu attacks/bribes/etc. I am mainly consolidating my position. For example, making more warriors before feudalism obsoletes them. I am working on 7 more settlers, to take full advantage of HG. Also, enough vets, boats and barracks for military parity.
Global thoughts about the next ten years or so:
Since my homeland now seems fairly safe, I am probably winning the game. I should keep the game fairly simple and keep relying mainly on growth to increase my advantage.
ST's production = 40s/t, and I can bet he'll use it on the war. I get 75s/t, so I can match his defense spending and still devote 35s/t to growth, vans and militia.
I believe that with equal force, the defender has an edge. Of course, ST can concentrate his forces on a few surprise targets and expect to win some victories. I might lose up to 4 cities in 10 turns, but I can probably build 8 new ones during that same period. Also, it seems the attacker is more likely to lose major units (like catapults) than the defender. So, it's all good.
Goals: I want Hlobane/Zim to be 99% secure. I can't defend everything, but I want at least 1/3 of ST's surprise invasions of my minor cities to fail. So I will keep cats/etc in a few randomly chosen cities like Lonsim.
I want more boats, vets, and roads. I want some dips in stacks along coastlines to bribe ST's boats as they return from deliveries.
By 82AD, I'd like to be halfway to another Wonder (probably Pyramids, but maybe STWA or LH). I want to increase my growth lead to approx 25 vs 12 cities. When ST gets Poly, I should have Feudalism, and be making pikemen. And by 82AD, I should be ready for a major attack, perhaps on Cheb.
73 : An American trireme with passengers appears near Zimbabwe. Two Zulu triremes and a dip have just arrived there to start "Operation Zim Sea". My idea is to attack ST's loaded triremes (repeatedly, until sunk) and to bribe any empty ones. I think this plan gives the Zulus a naval advantage. The Americans cannot easily do the same to us because a) bribing Zulu boats will be too expensive near Zim, and b) Zulus are not as likely to carry valuable cargo. Also, Zulu production is higher, so we can recoup from losses faster.
After some play testing, I found that my two boats have about 2-1 odds of success, when attacking twice against a lone defender (if we both lose a boat, but only his boat has passengers, that is a Zulu success). So I attacked, and was a little surprised to win with my first boat. It was wounded, and became a vet.
My second boat + dip ventured out to explore a little to the north, and found a second enemy boat, also loaded. Maybe I should have attacked it, from a Bayesian point of view. But I retreated, hoping to get another 2-1 advantage sooner or later. The dip got off the boat, in case ST decides to attack it.
Not much else to report. Just strengthening my position according to plan.
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