P vs ST (not for ST)

[Carolus Rex]

What are you producing in those 5 visible cities (one barely, at the bottom of the screenshot) and how many turns until whatever it is, is completed?

Carolus

[Peaster]

They have zero shields in the box, because I rushed units in 61AD. In 62AD I had just built the vet archer and had no shields in Bapedi (my barracks city), so I disbanded a warrior there and rushed a vet horse to appear in 63AD (included in the 3 horses I reported).
I am making 45g/t from taxes, so I can afford to repeat this trick in an emergency.

There is an empty coastal city a few squares south along a river that has 10 shields towards a horse (or dip/phal/etc). Since ST has boats on this inland sea, the city is very vulnerable and may keep its horse. I have 2 warriors coming back from sentry duty to help out.

I do not have a dip in the area, but ST doesn't know that. So, he feels he has to keep his units stacked. For example, he might kill my 2 warriors with his chariot and then grab the hill with a phalanx - but I don't think he will dare it.

But I didn't really think he'd move his stack next to Hlobane either. If Bapedi had not rioted in approx 60AD, a vet archer could have been in place to ambush that stack.

[Carolus Rex]

Ok, let's see if I got this straight...

Zimbabwe, Bapedi, and Intombe all have a non-vet warrior as defender (and the barely visible city as well?)?

Hlobane has one phalanx and two warriors; the phalanx is not fortified (but will be when you play the next turn).

What about the 3 horsemen? Where can you bring them in the next turn? Will they all be able to attack the stack outside Hlobane next turn and with full strength?

I also wonder about the food box in Hlobane; how many turns to size 4?

First, about the "chariot stack". If it contains two units, then it's not an immediate (critical) problem IMHO. If it contains a phalanx, the stack is pinned down by ZOC. If it contains a diplo, you will notice as the stack will move (ignoring ZOC). But in that case you'll know it's weak on defense and very vulnerable.

The problem is that it may potentially contain more than two units (as you say), for example diplo, chariot, phalanx and others. That will allow the stack to move and still have decent defense. The crux is that you will not be able (I guess?) to distinguish this case from the two-stack case (chariot and diplo) above...

About the Hlobane stack: if it's a two-unit stack and one is a diplo, then the archer will probably change sides and be stacked (unfortified) with the cat. Then you have 3 (?) horsemen against a vet archer on jungle with river (right?)...

If you still have the archer next turn, then I would draw the conclusion that there is no diplo in the stack, but probably a phalanx.

It seems that ST:s choice then is his cat against i) the archer on mountains or ii) against best defender in Hlobane. I've never been good at calculating battle odds... Hlobane is the big prize here... It also matters what are his possibilities of bringing in more troops (i.e. can he afford to wait?)...

That was if there's two units in the stack. If there are more it becomes more difficult to predict what will happen (no kidding!)...

Not much, but I must be careful not to give anything away...

Carolus

[Peaster]

Originally posted by Carolus Rex
Ok, let's see if I got this straight...

Yes, mostly....

Zimbabwe, Bapedi, and Intombe all have a non-vet warrior as defender (and the barely visible city as well?)?

Hlobane has one phalanx and two warriors; the phalanx is not fortified (but will be when you play the next turn).

What about the 3 horsemen? Where can you bring them in the next turn? Will they all be able to attack the stack outside Hlobane next turn and with full strength?

All correct except that Bapedi contains a horse (and a warrior) and it will make a vet horse next turn. The third horse is in the half-visible city. So yes, all 3 can attack at full strength.

I also wonder about the food box in Hlobane; how many turns to size 4?

IIRC about 10 turns. I just disbanded a settler there to pump it up from size 2, and I think the box is about half full.

First, about the "chariot stack". If it contains two units, then it's not an immediate (critical) problem IMHO. If it contains a phalanx, the stack is pinned down by ZOC. If it contains a diplo, you will notice as the stack will move (ignoring ZOC). But in that case you'll know it's weak on defense and very vulnerable.

The problem is that it may potentially contain more than two units (as you say), for example diplo, chariot, phalanx and others. That will allow the stack to move and still have decent defense. The crux is that you will not be able (I guess?) to distinguish this case from the two-stack case (chariot and diplo) above...

About the Hlobane stack: if it's a two-unit stack and one is a diplo, then the archer will probably change sides and be stacked (unfortified) with the cat. Then you have 3 (?) horsemen against a vet archer on jungle with river (right?)...

I refuse to deal with the possibility that the stacks have more than 2 units each.

ST should have reported his embassy, which would have given me important danger signals - that he knew my civ and that he had boats back in 43AD. I am really tempted to just stop the game over this. But if the surprise attack is not overwhelming, and the situation is manageable, I will play on. I guess I draw the line, between manageable and not, at 2 units per stack. This seems the most likely situation, since triremes carry two units each, and moving large stacks around is pretty risky.

I saw a phalanx in the cat stack when it was on the mountain. I also saw a phalanx just across the sea from Zimbabwe, and suspect the chariot stack contains that phalanx and nothing else.

If you still have the archer next turn, then I would draw the conclusion that there is no diplo in the stack, but probably a phalanx.

It seems that ST:s choice then is his cat against i) the archer on mountains or ii) against best defender in Hlobane. I've never been good at calculating battle odds... Hlobane is the big prize here... It also matters what are his possibilities of bringing in more troops (i.e. can he afford to wait?)...

I agree about i) and ii). My phalanx would lose against his cat, but with my archer still alive, I can probably destroy his stack in 63AD. So, I think he should attack my archer, and hope my 3 horses are not enough.

He only has about 30 gold (before taxes and selling) but he probably needs over 150g to bribe my archer because it is very close to my capitol. If he CAN bribe it, I guess Hlobane is lost.

I doubt he is going to wait, after taking such a risk to get close to Hlobane, and alerting me to his attack. He may attack in another area, but as you said, Hlobane is the big prize.

That was if there's two units in the stack. If there are more it becomes more difficult to predict what will happen (no kidding!)...

Not much, but I must be careful not to give anything away...

Carolus

Thanks!

[Carolus Rex]

Originally posted by Peaster

I refuse to deal with the possibility that the stacks have more than 2 units each.

Heh, heh!

Originally posted by Peaster

ST should have reported his embassy, which would have given me important danger signals - that he knew my civ and that he had boats back in 43AD. I am really tempted to just stop the game over this.

C'mon, this is an interesting game and fun to watch! I forbid you to do such a thing! Er, please?

Originally posted by Peaster

But if the surprise attack is not overwhelming, and the situation is manageable, I will play on. I guess I draw the line, between manageable and not, at 2 units per stack.

Let's hope for 2 units per stack then!

Originally posted by Peaster

I agree about i) and ii). My phalanx would lose against his cat, but with my archer still alive, I can probably destroy his stack in 63AD. So, I think he should attack my archer, and hope my 3 horses are not enough.

Fair enough.

Carolus

[Peaster]

C'mon, this is an interesting game and fun to watch! I forbid you to do such a thing! Er, please?

Thanks for your interest. I really do appreciate your posts. The game was fun for me until 61AD, but it has gone downhill fast in the last 10 days. After 61AD, I was hoping to verify quickly that the embassy error was just a little bump in the road, but cannot do so until ST plays on.

He has not offered a good reason for stopping play at the most critical point of the game. He has been a good sport so far, but I wonder if he is actually trying to annoy me. Apparently that stuff has happened in other duels.

If this Fast PBEM idea is going to work, we need some kind of limit on time per turn, and we may also need a referee to sort out occasional conflicts and errors. As it is, my only option may be to walk away.

You can pass all this on to ST if you think it would help. Maybe you have a better idea of what's going on than I do. I will tell him myself if there is no action soon.

[Carolus Rex]

Wow, it really seems to get to you! In that case, why not e-mail him?

I'm used to wait 3 months between turns in PBEM, so this is still a duel in my book!

BTW, I don't know anything more than you do (unless he has posted today in his thread, which I will check now).

Carolus

[Peaster]

Yes, it does get to me. I have taken Civ2 pretty seriously for the last year or so, and I know ST does too. I have probably put 50+ hours into this PBEM and would hate to see it wasted (though, as I said, it has been fun most of the time).

In a way, I admire your patience, waiting 3 months between moves. But I would not enjoy that myself, and I thought it would not happen in this game. I have emailed him several times over the last 1-2 weeks, asking "Is there a problem?", etc, with various vague answers. I suggested taking a long break after the Hlobane battle. But I think he just doesn't want to move for some reason.

[Peaster]

We have movement.... I repeat ... we have movement....

62: This ugly turn is described above. I placed my vet archer in plain view next to ST's cat, giving him a choice to attack that, or the city. He took two weeks, I got irritated, stopped the game prematurely, etc, etc. Finally he attacked the city, killing my unfortified phalanx, and reducing Hlobane to size 2 - but allowing a counterattack.

I am pushing some weak units and dips towards his homeland, hoping to steal his techs, and maybe distract him a little from his attack. But he knows I do not have the tech for decent military units.

63: Cremona (19) I miscalculated in Bapedi, by rushing a horse while reducing shield production to zero (for a few extra arrows). When the horse arrived, it created a shield deficit, and the AI disbanded my Archer near Cheb. I kicked myself a few times over this, but at least it didn't affect the Hlobane arena much.

I attacked his cat stack with my vet Archer and lost, then attacked with a vet horse and lost again. His phalanx was wounded badly by then, so my next horse defeated his cat and he lost 3 units - I assume the third was a dip (?).

ST's chariot narrowly defeated my warrior, which was blocking him on the hill. Then he moved onto the hill himself, past my ZOC, splitting his units into TWO stacks. Arrrgh. Well, one unit must be a dip and I see a phalanx and wounded chariot. What is the 4th unit? I suppose it is not a cat, or he would have used that instead of the chariot. If it is a phalanx, dip, or even an archer, it is not too dangerous. Of course, there could even be a 5th or 6th unit there, but I am only human and can't plan vs all that.

ST lost a sea battle with my trireme, which now limps towards the nearest port, Zimbabwe, carrying a phalanx. I am returning a warrior to the Hlobane area, and it spots a loaded blue trireme in the inland sea...more trouble coming. My new port city of Zunge is nearby, empty and undefendable, but I suppose ST hasn't spotted it yet, and he is probably focused entirely on Hlobane anyway.

I cannot defend everything, and decide to sacrifice Zunge or even Intombe (a great size 3 city) if necessary, to save Hlobane. I will not make any new units in 64AD, but will make 3 horses (or phalanges) and a vet archer in 65AD, and hope that will be enough. The horses will not be vets, so they won't help much.

64: My dip steals tech from Kutna Hora - Masonry. I hoped for Math, but somehow expected this. At least I can build walls now. But I have only 100 gold - not enough for rushing. Since ST has at least one dip near Hlobane (to sabotage my walls), I really should build a courthouse first, while saving up more gold. But Hlobane might not be around long enough for that.

ST had no attacks last turn, but gathered his units onto the hill N.W of Hlobane, presumably for an attack in 64AD or 65AD. He also unloaded another stack onto the mountains S.E of the city, with a phalanx on top.

I move a returning warrior onto an adjacent mountain, freezing this new stack with ZOC. If the second unit in the stack is a cat, I have slowed him down a little. If the other unit is a dip, the stack is not very dangerous. If there are 3 units, I may be in big trouble.

The 4-stack to the NE is now pretty scary. The 4th unit could be a chariot, archer or cat. It is hard to pick the best defense without knowing what's there. I eventually decided that rushing a vet archer was not enough.

I have a dip from Lonsim close to where Slany should be. I take a chance and move the dip into a ring of American troops and BINGO! Slany is there (though not exactly where I thought). My dip steals math - I have gotten a little break. Now I can rush a vet cat for 88g, with solid hopes to put it in Hlobane in 65AD.

I am down to 13g with few shields in my boxes, and all my hopes are based on my new vet cat. Basically, ST now has just 2 turns to get past my blockades and raze The City. This should be difficult unless he has more hidden resources, such as a second chariot in his 4-stack, or 3 units in the S.E. stack.

I must decide soon whether to continue. ST's attack has been stronger than expected, but if there are no disasters in 64-65AD, I will probably play on.

Screenshot after my 64AD turn. Can ST hurt Hlobane before I can move my cat there from Bapedi? Or, will he diplo-guide his stack south (into a little trap) allowing my new cat to sneak attack from Bapedi in 65AD ?

[Peaster]

From the previous screenshot, ST 's cat killed my warrior, and he built a city on the hill where you see
his wounded chariot. I forget what he named it, but I will call it "Klat".

This 65-68AD log is written after 68AD, partly from memory. It may have small errors.

65: ST has a new stack at Intombe, which contains only 1-2 warriors, so it may be lost. I decide to place a cat + phalanx stack next to Klat, to raze it in 66AD. I fear it has 1-2 chariots, one wounded. I cover my stack with a warrior and hope he won't attack it (since he didn't last time). But the square has river + swamp, so my phalanx is a decent defender there.

It was safer to put the cat in Hlobane (not sure which was objectively better).

66: ST moves stacks next to Hlobane from two sides. I don't know which is more dangerous, but my cat near Klat is adjacent to the northern one only, so it kills it. ST gets a free shot with his cat at size 2 Hlobane, defended by a warrior and a horse. If he cannot attack with a second unit, Holbane has enough food to grow back in 67ad. But almost any 2nd attack razes the city. I am afraid ST might even attack with his vet phalanx. I place a line of 3 stacks between Klat and Hlobane to block his chariot(s). I wouldn't need to stack, except he may have a dip in Klat instead of a second chariot.

I could rush a vet cat in Bapedi, but I decide to rush a rookie cat in Hlobane instead.

67: Arrgh! ST's chariot(s) in Klat destroy 2
stacks, killing 3 warriors, a phalanx, and a horse. I was hoping he had only one wounded chariot there. His cat kills a warrior in Hlobane and an archer kills a warrior in Intombe. His dip steals currency from Intombe. He has a new stack near Zungu, which is undefended (I wonder why he didn't just take it?).

However, my rushed cat in Hlobane takes out his cat stack before his phalanx can fortify. I decide that Klat can wait, because its chariot(s) are surely wounded (I can even see one in the city), Hlobane is back to size 2, and I will have 2 more cats next turn to help out (another rushed in Bapedi, using 1 disbanded warrior there).

I cannot really help Intombe, and must hope his archer has trouble with my fortified warriors on a river.

68: ST razed Zungu, as expected, so I have no port on the Mpondo Sea. ST has a new stack at my beloved colony of Lonsim, and will probably take it next turn. This will wipe out Zulu influence in the southeast for a long time and allow American expansion into that area.

The good news: I now have 3 cats near Hlobane. Two of them raze Klat before it can do more harm. ST did not attack Intombe last turn, so I suppose his archer is wounded. The Klat victory frees a phalanx to go there, and I hope to move in 1-2 cats too, before the archer attacks again. ST's Zungu stack is still a threat, but I probably have enough cats now to defend. IMO, the good news finally outweighs the bad.

This is the first turn since about 62AD that Hlobane and HG seem safe. I can relax a little, and make some long-term plans.

1) Hlobane will start building walls, and I will hold 100g+ on reserve for rushing them if needed. It will build a courthouse first, to delay sabotage by dips. Bapedi is making a vet phalanx for the city. The capitol city of Zimbabwe will also get some attention ASAP.

2) I will continue growth up to about 25-30 cities (I now have 18 to ST's 12, after he takes Lonsim). I expect the Americans can't go much over 12 without a happiness wonder, such as Mike's, which I want to delay. When I get Phil in about 4 turns, I will probably not choose Poly, as planned, since ST might steal it, getting closer to monotheism. I may take feudalism or maybe construction or seafaring (suggestions??). After 25-30 cities, I will think about another Wonder.

3) I want to control the seas, especially near Zimbabwe. I need at least 2-3 triremes and a dip there. Maybe I can send some cats to Cheb when my homeland seems safer. Then I may try for the inland sea, which ST has used so well.

Etc: I want to deter more easy attacks on my fringe cities (eg Zungu, Lonsim) maybe by building cats in a few of them. If I can't, then I just need to grow faster than ST can attack. I will build roads and sentries. Also, I'll try for more cheap warriors before getting feudalism.

PS - I have decided it is time to forget the embassy thing. I did NOT enjoy defending Hlobane with every defensive trick I could think of, and I probably didn't defend perfectly. But IMO the first wave has passed and I can play on. We have a partial agreement about pace, and I think both sides want it to work. I hope this episode didn't detract from anyone's enjoyment of the game.

BTW - Is anybody still watching this ?

[dunnm]

Still watching and will study the save tonight. I for one am pleased you have decided to continue. The thought processes ( inc. educated guesses / assumptions ) of ST and youself are keeping my interest. I should really ask for more commentry from ST but perhaps it is best to settle for continued regular play at the moment.

[Peaster]

Why not ask him? I know he wanted this duel to have an audience. We are glad to know other players are interested in the game.

[Grigor]

Still having fun here.

I recommend construction after Phil. Forts can be flashed, and war seems to be a serious part of this game.

[Carolus Rex]

Been away a week, but still here.

Carolus

[Peaster]

Grigor - I have been looking at your suggestion to take
Construction for making fortresses. I can't remember ever making them, so I am not sure how valuable they are, or where I would build them, or even how long it takes. Do you have specific locations in mind ? This map already has a LOT of mountains and hills for defensive stacks, and I have a very long border, without enough units for an effective line.

But I don't really like the alternatives much. Feudalism would make more sense if I needed pikemen to defend against ellies or if I wanted to build Sun Tzu (I don't - not soon). I am considering the tech-path to Navigation, to control the seas with caravels and maybe Lighthouse (all the danger so far has been from ST's flotillas). Also, one or two explorers could help a lot with an invasion across mts, or as sentries.

I have not ruled out Poly. It would give me a nice military
advantage. Even if ST manages to steal it, he would probably still have a hard time getting Mike's.

69: ST's catapult bombarded my rookie phalanx on grass in Lonsim, and LOST! His phalanx gets back on the boat and leaves. In honor of the defenders, I pledge to prepare this city well for any future attacks. Priority second only to Hlobane and Zimbabwe.

Hlobane will build a courthouse (10 shields) and a barracks and walls (rushed, if necessary). So, it should be pretty safe even if ST can get 4-5 units near it. Which will be pretty hard to do without the aid of surprise. Also, I already have 3 cats defending the 5 cities in this area.

ST has stacks near Intombe and Umtata, but they will be very lucky to do much damage. I expect that continued attacks in this area will cost ST more than they cost me. Of course, he could get lucky, but I think his odds go down each turn.

70: Neopondo (20) founded near Cunaxa, named in honor of the lost city of Mpondo. This helps connect my cities in the central zone, just north of the American homeland. Now I have a cluster of 5 and a nearby cluster of 4, which can soon cooperate in attack, in defense, or in building a wonder.

ST's cat attacks Umtata at 2/3 strength and kills a phalanx, reducing the city to size 1. But I have my own cat there, and it defeats his stack. I claim victory in this exchange, which seems pretty typical in a war of cats. Now it is easy to see how important it was to steal math from the Americans a few turns ago.

71: I detected a loaded trireme north of Zimbabwe last turn and posted my own boat between it and the capitol, which is still poorly defended. Maybe I should have attacked the boat, but I was pretty confident in just diverting it. His boat unloaded a stack on the plains west of Intombe, with a cat on top. I will stall it on plains until I can attack it with horses in 72AD. If that fails, I can place 2 cats near it, sacrificing one to attack with the other.

Meanwhile, my cat in Intombe destroys his Archer (wounded) + warrior north of the city.

So, ST has hurt my cities in this area a bit over the last 10 turns, by maybe 15-20 percent. But his losses in units have been about twice mine (about 400 shields to 200 of mine) and I am much better prepared to defend now than in 61AD. Now I have about 160g on reserve and a clearer advantage in tech.

I think the real danger here has passed. Soon, I will have two boats north of Zimbabwe to intercept further flotillas from Cheb. With only one front to defend (S.E.) and 3-4 vet cats available, my homeland will be pretty safe, and I can start thinking of attacking Cheb, or using my other cities more aggressively.

The game is certainly not over, but I can't find a promising plan for ST. The Zulus can probably create a two-to-one size advantage, build 1-2 more Wonders, and start a decent counter-attack before the Americans can change the picture much.

After my 71AD turn, ST announced he wanted to take his holiday. I assume this refers to our time-limit, and he won't play for about a week.