I sitll get annoyed with the random nature of it all... Last night, I again was in a situation where I was surrounded by AI's on a large Cont. The Americans (not Native) and I were the same religion. Washington was pleased with me, and had been since early in the game when I politely crammed my religion down his throat 
We had traded many resources, and our trade routes were profitable.
I also had Monty, Shaka and Peter bordering me... and they were all the same religion and it wasn't mine. Needless to say, they all hated my guts and loved each other like brothers. I was also far ahead on the power graph. And of course, it was Washington, my buddy, who declared war on me first, even though Shaka was his worst enemy from a previous war, and they shared a border.
Sometimes, there is just nothing you can do about it

We had traded many resources, and our trade routes were profitable.
I also had Monty, Shaka and Peter bordering me... and they were all the same religion and it wasn't mine. Needless to say, they all hated my guts and loved each other like brothers. I was also far ahead on the power graph. And of course, it was Washington, my buddy, who declared war on me first, even though Shaka was his worst enemy from a previous war, and they shared a border.
Sometimes, there is just nothing you can do about it
If you have an autosave from a turn or two before the war declaration you could check to see if he's in WHEOOHRN. If he is, then he initiated the war (an AI cannot be bribed into a war if it is already planning one). If he's willing to declare on any of the other AI's or he gives another reason for not being willing to declare then he most likely got bribed into the war.

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