An interesting exercise might be to consider those circumstances where you would prefer N units to N-1 promoted units.
My hunch is that finding an example where you would prefer one promoted axe over two unpromoted axe is going to be a challenge.
But if you need to take a city from two archers (50% city bonus, 25% fortify bonus, no promotions, no culture), I believe you'd rather have two promoted axes (which have a minimum 25% chance of success) than three of the other (which I'm fairly certain is lower than that, as unpromoted axe vs archer is something like 28%).
My hunch is that finding an example where you would prefer one promoted axe over two unpromoted axe is going to be a challenge.
But if you need to take a city from two archers (50% city bonus, 25% fortify bonus, no promotions, no culture), I believe you'd rather have two promoted axes (which have a minimum 25% chance of success) than three of the other (which I'm fairly certain is lower than that, as unpromoted axe vs archer is something like 28%).
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